Preseason Rankings
Sam Houston St.
Western Athletic
2021-22
Overall
Predictive Rating-1.7#196
Expected Predictive Rating+0.0#1
Pace75.5#54
Improvement--

Offense
Total Offense-0.7#198
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebound--
Layup/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--

Defense
Total Defense-1.0#205
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebounds--
Layups/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.1% 0.4% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 7.5% 15.9% 6.3%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.2% 0.8% 0.1%
Average Seed 13.8 12.9 14.2
.500 or above 42.9% 74.2% 38.2%
.500 or above in Conference 63.5% 82.9% 60.5%
Conference Champion 7.4% 16.6% 6.0%
Last Place in Conference 0.9% 0.1% 1.0%
First Four0.5% 0.7% 0.5%
First Round7.3% 15.5% 6.0%
Second Round0.9% 2.8% 0.6%
Sweet Sixteen0.3% 0.9% 0.2%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Nebraska (Away) - 13.3% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 2
Quad 21 - 31 - 5
Quad 33 - 64 - 11
Quad 49 - 313 - 14


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 12, 2021 75   @ Nebraska L 73-85 13%    
  Nov 17, 2021 96   Missouri St. L 74-78 35%    
  Nov 21, 2021 277   Arkansas Little Rock W 75-71 65%    
  Nov 24, 2021 62   @ SMU L 71-84 13%    
  Nov 29, 2021 7   @ Texas L 65-86 4%    
  Dec 11, 2021 207   Texas San Antonio W 81-80 51%    
  Dec 14, 2021 123   @ North Texas L 64-72 26%    
  Dec 21, 2021 157   Bradley L 71-73 43%    
  Dec 30, 2021 308   Lamar W 80-70 78%    
  Jan 01, 2022 310   UT Rio Grande Valley W 81-71 78%    
  Jan 06, 2022 185   @ Tarleton St. L 68-72 38%    
  Jan 08, 2022 167   @ Abilene Christian L 72-77 34%    
  Jan 13, 2022 308   @ Lamar W 77-73 61%    
  Jan 15, 2022 153   Stephen F. Austin W 77-76 51%    
  Jan 20, 2022 102   New Mexico St. L 69-73 38%    
  Jan 22, 2022 142   Grand Canyon L 72-73 48%    
  Jan 26, 2022 215   @ California Baptist L 79-81 44%    
  Jan 29, 2022 179   @ Seattle L 75-79 37%    
  Feb 03, 2022 303   Dixie St. W 85-76 77%    
  Feb 05, 2022 209   Utah Valley W 79-76 61%    
  Feb 12, 2022 357   @ Chicago St. W 86-69 91%    
  Feb 17, 2022 167   Abilene Christian W 75-74 53%    
  Feb 19, 2022 310   @ UT Rio Grande Valley W 78-74 61%    
  Feb 24, 2022 153   @ Stephen F. Austin L 74-80 33%    
  Feb 26, 2022 142   @ Grand Canyon L 69-76 31%    
  Mar 03, 2022 185   Tarleton St. W 71-69 57%    
Projected Record 12 - 14 10 - 8




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Western Athletic Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.3 1.3 2.3 2.1 1.0 0.3 7.4 1st
2nd 0.0 0.8 2.4 3.0 1.7 0.4 0.0 8.4 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.8 2.8 3.5 1.5 0.2 0.0 8.9 3rd
4th 0.0 0.7 3.0 4.1 1.4 0.1 9.4 4th
5th 0.0 0.6 3.1 4.4 1.6 0.1 9.9 5th
6th 0.0 0.5 2.8 4.6 2.0 0.2 10.1 6th
7th 0.0 0.4 2.8 4.8 2.2 0.2 0.0 10.4 7th
8th 0.0 0.0 0.5 2.5 4.4 2.3 0.3 0.0 10.0 8th
9th 0.0 0.0 0.6 2.2 3.7 2.0 0.3 8.9 9th
10th 0.1 0.6 2.0 2.9 1.6 0.3 0.0 7.5 10th
11th 0.1 0.7 1.7 1.9 1.0 0.2 0.0 5.6 11th
12th 0.2 0.6 1.1 0.9 0.4 0.1 0.0 3.2 12th
13th 0.0 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.4 13th
Total 0.0 0.3 0.8 1.9 3.3 4.9 6.7 8.5 10.0 10.8 11.0 10.5 9.5 7.8 5.9 4.2 2.5 1.0 0.3 Total



Western Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.3    0.3
17-1 99.2% 1.0    0.9 0.1 0.0
16-2 84.4% 2.1    1.5 0.5 0.0
15-3 55.3% 2.3    1.1 0.9 0.2 0.0 0.0
14-4 22.3% 1.3    0.3 0.6 0.4 0.1 0.0
13-5 4.3% 0.3    0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0
12-6 0.4% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 7.4% 7.4 4.2 2.3 0.8 0.2 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.3% 70.0% 62.3% 7.7% 9.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 20.4%
17-1 1.0% 55.3% 49.6% 5.7% 11.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.5 11.4%
16-2 2.5% 39.7% 38.4% 1.3% 13.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.0 1.5 2.1%
15-3 4.2% 31.4% 30.8% 0.5% 13.5 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.5 0.4 0.2 0.0 2.9 0.8%
14-4 5.9% 21.7% 21.7% 0.0% 13.9 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.5 0.3 0.0 4.6 0.1%
13-5 7.8% 15.3% 15.3% 14.4 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.5 0.1 6.6
12-6 9.5% 8.7% 8.7% 14.8 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.2 8.7
11-7 10.5% 5.8% 5.8% 15.2 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.2 9.9
10-8 11.0% 3.4% 3.4% 15.4 0.0 0.1 0.2 10.6
9-9 10.8% 1.1% 1.1% 15.9 0.0 0.1 10.7
8-10 10.0% 0.4% 0.4% 16.0 0.0 9.9
7-11 8.5% 0.0% 0.0% 16.0 0.0 8.5
6-12 6.7% 0.0% 0.0% 16.0 0.0 6.7
5-13 4.9% 4.9
4-14 3.3% 3.3
3-15 1.9% 1.9
2-16 0.8% 0.8
1-17 0.3% 0.3
0-18 0.0% 0.0
Total 100% 7.5% 7.4% 0.1% 13.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.7 1.6 1.9 1.8 1.0 92.5 0.2%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.0%