IN CC Stats - NCAA Basketball

Preseason Rankings
San Francisco
West Coast
2021-22

Overall
Predictive Rating	+8.4	#67
Expected Predictive Rating	+0.0	#1

Pace	69.4	#167
Improvement	-	-

Offense
Total Offense	+4.1	#63

First Shot	-	-
After Offensive Rebound	-	-

Layup/Dunks	-	-
2 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
3 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
Freethrows	-	-

Improvement	-	-

Defense
Total Defense	+4.3	#65

First Shot	-	-
After Offensive Rebounds	-	-

Layups/Dunks	-	-
2 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
3 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
Freethrows	-	-

Improvement	-	-

	Now	Win Next	Lose Next
#1 Overall Seed	0.1%	0.1%	0.0%
#1 Seed	0.5%	0.6%	0.0%
Top 2 Seed	1.4%	1.5%	0.1%
Top 4 Seed	4.2%	4.4%	0.2%
Top 6 Seed	7.9%	8.3%	0.7%
NCAA Tourney Bid	29.3%	30.8%	5.8%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier	24.4%	25.8%	4.3%
Average Seed	8.5	8.5	10.0

.500 or above	84.3%	86.4%	50.4%
.500 or above in Conference	73.3%	75.1%	44.8%
Conference Champion	7.4%	7.8%	1.3%
Last Place in Conference	1.7%	1.4%	6.0%

First Four	5.6%	5.8%	1.7%
First Round	26.6%	27.9%	5.1%
Second Round	14.5%	15.3%	2.1%
Sweet Sixteen	6.0%	6.3%	0.4%
Elite Eight	2.5%	2.7%	0.1%
Final Four	1.0%	1.1%	0.0%
Championship Game	0.5%	0.5%	0.0%
National Champion	0.2%	0.2%	0.0%

Next Game: LIU Brooklyn (Home) - 94.1% chance of victory

Projected Seeding

Not in Tournament

Projected Record by Quad
Quad	Projected	Projected Cumulative
Quad 1a	1 - 3	1 - 3
Quad 1b	1 - 2	1 - 5
Quad 2	3 - 3	4 - 7
Quad 3	6 - 2	10 - 10
Quad 4	9 - 1	19 - 10

Date	Opponent		Result/Prediction			Record	Conf		Rating	Offense	Defense
Nov 09, 2021	254	LIU Brooklyn	W	85-68	94%
Nov 11, 2021	232	Prairie View	W	78-63	91%
Nov 13, 2021	98	Davidson	W	69-66	60%
Nov 15, 2021	255	Samford	W	87-70	93%
Nov 18, 2021	63	Nevada	W	77-74	59%
Nov 22, 2021	256	Morgan St.	W	85-68	92%
Nov 25, 2021	239	Towson	W	77-64	85%
Dec 04, 2021	145	UNLV	W	75-65	79%
Dec 08, 2021	138	Fresno St.	W	74-65	78%
Dec 18, 2021	142	Grand Canyon	W	73-66	70%
Dec 19, 2021	61	@ Arizona St.	L	76-80	39%
Dec 22, 2021	140	Southern Illinois	W	73-63	78%
Jan 01, 2022	49	@ St. Mary's	L	63-68	35%
Jan 06, 2022	1	@ Gonzaga	L	73-89	10%
Jan 08, 2022	170	San Diego	W	79-68	81%
Jan 13, 2022	82	Loyola Marymount	W	73-68	64%
Jan 15, 2022	38	BYU	W	73-72	51%
Jan 20, 2022	307	@ Portland	W	83-70	86%
Jan 22, 2022	147	@ Pepperdine	W	78-74	62%
Jan 27, 2022	49	St. Mary's	W	66-65	54%
Jan 29, 2022	124	Santa Clara	W	79-71	74%
Feb 03, 2022	38	@ BYU	L	70-76	33%
Feb 05, 2022	307	Portland	W	86-67	94%
Feb 10, 2022	147	Pepperdine	W	81-71	78%
Feb 12, 2022	124	@ Santa Clara	W	76-74	57%
Feb 17, 2022	137	@ Pacific	W	71-68	60%
Feb 24, 2022	1	Gonzaga	L	76-86	22%
Feb 26, 2022	170	@ San Diego	W	76-71	66%
Projected Record						18 - 10	9 - 7

Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.

Projected West Coast Finish

	0-16	1-15	2-14	3-13	4-12	5-11	6-10	7-9	8-8	9-7	10-6	11-5	12-4	13-3	14-2	15-1	16-0		Total
1st											0.0	0.1	0.7	2.1	2.6	1.6	0.4		7.4	1st
2nd										0.1	1.1	4.4	6.5	4.6	1.3				17.9	2nd
3rd									0.2	2.1	6.2	6.6	2.6	0.2					17.9	3rd
4th							0.0	0.3	2.6	6.6	5.5	1.4	0.1						16.3	4th
5th						0.0	0.2	2.5	5.9	3.8	0.7	0.0							13.1	5th
6th					0.0	0.2	2.3	4.9	2.9	0.4	0.0								10.7	6th
7th					0.2	1.9	3.5	2.0	0.2	0.0									7.8	7th
8th			0.0	0.2	1.3	2.2	1.2	0.1	0.0										5.0	8th
9th		0.0	0.3	0.9	1.2	0.5	0.1												3.0	9th
10th	0.0	0.1	0.3	0.3	0.1	0.0													0.8	10th

Total	0.0	0.2	0.6	1.4	2.8	4.8	7.3	9.7	11.8	13.0	13.5	12.4	9.8	6.9	3.9	1.6	0.4			Total

West Coast Regular Season Championship

Record	Champion	Total		Outright	2-Way	3-Way	4-Way	5-Way	6-Way	7-Way	8-Way
16-0	100.0%	0.4		0.4
15-1	100.0%	1.6		1.3	0.3
14-2	67.4%	2.6		1.6	1.0	0.0
13-3	29.8%	2.1		0.7	1.1	0.3	0.0
12-4	7.2%	0.7		0.1	0.3	0.2	0.1
11-5	0.8%	0.1		0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
10-6	0.0%	0.0				0.0
9-7	0.0%
8-8	0.0%

Total	7.4%	7.4		4.1	2.7	0.6	0.1	0.0

NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf Record	Record Chance		Tourney Bid	Auto	At-Large	Avg Seed		1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	No Bid		At-Large if not Auto
16-0	0.4%		100.0%	47.6%	52.4%	2.2		0.2	0.1	0.1	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0		0.0										100.0%
15-1	1.6%		99.2%	37.3%	61.9%	3.4		0.2	0.3	0.3	0.3	0.2	0.1	0.1	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0					0.0		98.8%
14-2	3.9%		96.3%	27.8%	68.5%	5.3		0.1	0.3	0.5	0.7	0.6	0.5	0.4	0.3	0.2	0.1	0.1	0.0	0.0				0.1		94.9%
13-3	6.9%		86.8%	18.7%	68.1%	7.4		0.0	0.1	0.2	0.5	0.7	0.7	0.8	0.7	0.8	0.6	0.4	0.3	0.0				0.9		83.8%
12-4	9.8%		68.8%	11.7%	57.2%	9.2			0.0	0.0	0.1	0.3	0.4	0.6	0.8	1.1	1.2	1.3	0.7	0.1				3.1		64.7%
11-5	12.4%		45.7%	7.4%	38.4%	10.2					0.0	0.0	0.1	0.2	0.5	0.8	1.1	1.5	1.2	0.1	0.0	0.0		6.7		41.4%
10-6	13.5%		24.2%	4.6%	19.6%	11.0					0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.1	0.2	0.6	1.0	1.1	0.2	0.0	0.0		10.2		20.6%
9-7	13.0%		9.9%	2.7%	7.2%	11.3								0.0	0.0	0.1	0.2	0.4	0.5	0.1	0.0		0.0	11.7		7.4%
8-8	11.8%		3.9%	1.3%	2.5%	11.7									0.0	0.0	0.0	0.1	0.2	0.1	0.0	0.0		11.4		2.6%
7-9	9.7%		1.4%	1.1%	0.3%	12.5												0.0	0.1	0.1	0.0	0.0		9.6		0.3%
6-10	7.3%		0.6%	0.5%	0.1%	13.1											0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	7.2		0.1%
5-11	4.8%		0.2%	0.2%		14.4														0.0	0.0	0.0		4.8
4-12	2.8%		0.1%	0.1%		15.0																0.0		2.8
3-13	1.4%																							1.4
2-14	0.6%																							0.6
1-15	0.2%																							0.2
0-16	0.0%																							0.0

Total	100%		29.3%	6.5%	22.9%	8.5		0.5	0.8	1.2	1.7	1.8	1.9	2.1	2.4	3.2	3.8	5.0	4.1	0.7	0.1	0.0	0.0	70.7		24.4%

Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

	Chance	Tourney Bid	Avg Seed	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16
Win Out	0.1%	100.0%	1.5	64.0	21.1	14.9
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship	0.0%	100.0%	1.5	58.1	33.1	8.8
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final	0.0%	100.0%	1.7	44.3	37.1	18.6