IN CC Stats - NCAA Basketball

Preseason Rankings
South Dakota
Summit League
2021-22

Overall
Predictive Rating	-1.0	#186
Expected Predictive Rating	+0.0	#1

Pace	70.7	#136
Improvement	-	-

Offense
Total Offense	+1.7	#124

First Shot	-	-
After Offensive Rebound	-	-

Layup/Dunks	-	-
2 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
3 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
Freethrows	-	-

Improvement	-	-

Defense
Total Defense	-2.7	#258

First Shot	-	-
After Offensive Rebounds	-	-

Layups/Dunks	-	-
2 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
3 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
Freethrows	-	-

Improvement	-	-

	Now	Win Next	Lose Next
#1 Overall Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
#1 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Top 2 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Top 4 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Top 6 Seed	0.1%	0.1%	0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid	11.6%	13.7%	5.4%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier	0.1%	0.1%	0.0%
Average Seed	14.3	14.2	15.2

.500 or above	75.7%	83.4%	53.3%
.500 or above in Conference	80.9%	85.6%	67.0%
Conference Champion	13.0%	15.5%	5.6%
Last Place in Conference	0.6%	0.3%	1.5%

First Four	1.3%	1.2%	1.4%
First Round	11.0%	13.2%	4.7%
Second Round	1.2%	1.5%	0.2%
Sweet Sixteen	0.3%	0.4%	0.0%
Elite Eight	0.0%	0.1%	0.0%
Final Four	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Championship Game	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
National Champion	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%

Next Game: Air Force (Neutral) - 74.7% chance of victory

Projected Seeding

Not in Tournament

Projected Record by Quad
Quad	Projected	Projected Cumulative
Quad 1a	0 - 0	0 - 0
Quad 1b	0 - 1	0 - 1
Quad 2	0 - 2	1 - 4
Quad 3	3 - 4	3 - 7
Quad 4	14 - 4	17 - 11

Date	Opponent		Result/Prediction			Record	Conf		Rating	Offense	Defense
Nov 11, 2021	306	Air Force	W	73-66	75%
Nov 14, 2021	73	@ Drake	L	68-80	14%
Nov 19, 2021	317	Southern	W	82-71	82%
Nov 21, 2021	289	Tennessee St.	W	82-73	78%
Nov 27, 2021	75	@ Nebraska	L	73-84	17%
Nov 30, 2021	322	@ San Jose St.	W	84-78	68%
Dec 07, 2021	201	@ Northern Colorado	L	74-76	43%
Dec 11, 2021	324	Northern Arizona	W	76-64	84%
Dec 15, 2021	165	Bellarmine	W	74-72	56%
Dec 20, 2021	154	Oral Roberts	W	82-81	55%
Dec 22, 2021	233	UMKC	W	70-64	68%
Dec 30, 2021	313	@ North Dakota	W	78-73	64%
Jan 01, 2022	130	@ North Dakota St.	L	69-75	30%
Jan 08, 2022	99	@ South Dakota St.	L	77-86	23%
Jan 13, 2022	344	Denver	W	86-71	89%
Jan 15, 2022	326	Nebraska Omaha	W	84-72	83%
Jan 20, 2022	274	@ Western Illinois	W	82-80	56%
Jan 22, 2022	353	@ St. Thomas	W	83-68	89%
Jan 27, 2022	130	North Dakota St.	L	71-72	49%
Jan 29, 2022	313	North Dakota	W	81-70	80%
Feb 05, 2022	99	South Dakota St.	L	80-83	40%
Feb 10, 2022	326	@ Nebraska Omaha	W	81-75	69%
Feb 12, 2022	344	@ Denver	W	83-74	76%
Feb 17, 2022	353	St. Thomas	W	86-65	95%
Feb 19, 2022	274	Western Illinois	W	85-77	74%
Feb 24, 2022	233	@ UMKC	L	67-68	50%
Feb 26, 2022	154	@ Oral Roberts	L	79-84	36%
Projected Record						16 - 11	11 - 7

Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.

Projected Summit League Finish

	0-18	1-17	2-16	3-15	4-14	5-13	6-12	7-11	8-10	9-9	10-8	11-7	12-6	13-5	14-4	15-3	16-2	17-1	18-0		Total
1st													0.1	0.5	1.8	3.7	4.0	2.3	0.7		13.0	1st
2nd											0.0	0.2	1.8	4.6	6.2	3.5	0.8				17.0	2nd
3rd										0.0	0.7	3.1	6.4	5.6	1.9	0.2					17.9	3rd
4th									0.2	1.3	4.4	6.6	4.0	0.8	0.0						17.2	4th
5th							0.0	0.2	1.7	4.6	4.9	2.1	0.3								13.8	5th
6th						0.0	0.4	2.0	3.6	2.8	0.8	0.1									9.7	6th
7th					0.0	0.5	1.6	2.3	1.4	0.3	0.0										6.2	7th
8th				0.1	0.4	1.2	1.1	0.5	0.1	0.0											3.4	8th
9th			0.1	0.3	0.5	0.4	0.1	0.0													1.4	9th
10th	0.0	0.0	0.1	0.1	0.1	0.0															0.3	10th

Total	0.0	0.0	0.2	0.4	1.0	2.1	3.3	5.1	7.0	9.0	10.8	12.1	12.4	11.5	9.9	7.3	4.8	2.3	0.7			Total

Summit League Regular Season Championship

Record	Champion	Total		Outright	2-Way	3-Way	4-Way	5-Way	6-Way	7-Way	8-Way
18-0	100.0%	0.7		0.7
17-1	100.0%	2.3		2.1	0.2
16-2	83.1%	4.0		2.8	1.1	0.0
15-3	50.3%	3.7		1.8	1.6	0.3
14-4	18.0%	1.8		0.5	0.9	0.4	0.0
13-5	4.5%	0.5		0.1	0.2	0.2	0.1	0.0
12-6	0.4%	0.1			0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
11-7	0.0%
10-8	0.0%
9-9	0.0%

Total	13.0%	13.0		8.0	3.9	0.9	0.1	0.0

NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf Record	Record Chance		Tourney Bid	Auto	At-Large	Avg Seed		1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	No Bid		At-Large if not Auto
18-0	0.7%		68.4%	63.3%	5.1%	10.7				0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.1	0.1	0.1	0.0		0.2		13.9%
17-1	2.3%		48.1%	46.8%	1.3%	12.8					0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.1	0.3	0.4	0.3	0.1	0.0	1.2		2.4%
16-2	4.8%		39.0%	38.6%	0.4%	13.6											0.0	0.0	0.2	0.6	0.6	0.3	0.0	2.9		0.6%
15-3	7.3%		29.2%	29.2%		14.1												0.0	0.1	0.5	0.8	0.6	0.1	5.2
14-4	9.9%		20.8%	20.8%		14.6													0.0	0.2	0.6	0.8	0.3	7.8
13-5	11.5%		13.8%	13.8%		15.1													0.0	0.1	0.3	0.7	0.5	10.0
12-6	12.4%		8.8%	8.8%		15.5														0.0	0.1	0.4	0.6	11.3
11-7	12.1%		5.0%	5.0%		15.6															0.0	0.1	0.4	11.5
10-8	10.8%		3.3%	3.3%		15.8															0.0	0.1	0.3	10.5
9-9	9.0%		2.0%	2.0%		16.0																0.0	0.2	8.9
8-10	7.0%		1.3%	1.3%		16.0																0.0	0.1	6.9
7-11	5.1%		1.0%	1.0%		16.0																	0.0	5.0
6-12	3.3%		0.4%	0.4%		16.0																	0.0	3.3
5-13	2.1%		0.1%	0.1%		16.0																	0.0	2.1
4-14	1.0%																							1.0
3-15	0.4%																							0.4
2-16	0.2%																							0.2
1-17	0.0%																							0.0
0-18	0.0%																							0.0

Total	100%		11.6%	11.5%	0.1%	14.3				0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.1	0.7	1.9	2.8	3.1	2.7	88.4		0.1%

Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

	Chance	Tourney Bid	Avg Seed	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16
Win Out	0.1%	100.0%	6.4			3.3	11.8	21.7	31.6	9.9	2.8	6.1	2.8	6.6	3.3
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship	0.0%	80.3%	8.2				9.1	10.6		9.1	10.6	19.7		10.6	10.6