Preseason Rankings
Southern Miss
Conference USA
2021-22
Overall
Predictive Rating-1.6#195
Expected Predictive Rating+0.0#1
Pace67.4#225
Improvement--

Offense
Total Offense-2.6#253
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebound--
Layup/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--

Defense
Total Defense+0.9#141
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebounds--
Layups/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.1% 0.2% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 2.9% 4.4% 1.1%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.5% 0.8% 0.1%
Average Seed 12.5 12.3 13.5
.500 or above 38.3% 52.2% 21.1%
.500 or above in Conference 36.4% 46.5% 24.0%
Conference Champion 2.6% 4.0% 0.9%
Last Place in Conference 13.1% 7.8% 19.6%
First Four0.3% 0.5% 0.1%
First Round2.7% 4.1% 1.0%
Second Round0.5% 0.9% 0.1%
Sweet Sixteen0.2% 0.3% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Louisiana (Home) - 55.3% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 2
Quad 21 - 41 - 6
Quad 34 - 75 - 13
Quad 48 - 313 - 17


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 12, 2021 171   Louisiana W 74-73 55%    
  Nov 15, 2021 80   @ TCU L 62-73 15%    
  Nov 21, 2021 308   Lamar W 74-64 80%    
  Nov 24, 2021 266   UNC Wilmington W 74-70 63%    
  Nov 25, 2021 263   UC San Diego W 74-70 63%    
  Nov 26, 2021 161   @ Montana L 64-69 34%    
  Dec 01, 2021 214   @ South Alabama L 68-70 43%    
  Dec 04, 2021 140   @ Southern Illinois L 63-69 30%    
  Dec 14, 2021 302   Jacksonville W 73-64 77%    
  Dec 18, 2021 269   @ Louisiana Monroe W 68-67 54%    
  Dec 21, 2021 183   @ East Carolina L 66-70 38%    
  Dec 30, 2021 100   Western Kentucky L 67-71 37%    
  Jan 01, 2022 118   Marshall L 74-76 43%    
  Jan 06, 2022 207   @ Texas San Antonio L 73-76 42%    
  Jan 08, 2022 163   @ UTEP L 65-70 35%    
  Jan 13, 2022 93   @ Louisiana Tech L 65-75 20%    
  Jan 16, 2022 93   Louisiana Tech L 68-72 36%    
  Jan 22, 2022 267   @ Middle Tennessee W 70-69 54%    
  Jan 27, 2022 123   North Texas L 62-64 45%    
  Jan 29, 2022 173   Rice W 74-73 55%    
  Feb 03, 2022 273   @ Florida International W 72-71 54%    
  Feb 05, 2022 159   @ Florida Atlantic L 66-71 34%    
  Feb 10, 2022 74   @ UAB L 62-74 17%    
  Feb 17, 2022 207   Texas San Antonio W 76-73 61%    
  Feb 19, 2022 163   UTEP W 68-67 53%    
  Feb 24, 2022 123   @ North Texas L 59-67 28%    
  Feb 26, 2022 173   @ Rice L 71-76 36%    
  Mar 02, 2022 74   UAB L 65-71 32%    
  Mar 05, 2022 178   Charlotte W 64-62 56%    
Projected Record 13 - 16 7 - 11




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Conference USA Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.6 0.8 0.5 0.2 0.1 2.6 1st
2nd 0.0 0.1 0.6 1.3 1.2 0.5 0.1 0.0 3.8 2nd
3rd 0.1 0.8 1.8 1.4 0.5 0.1 4.6 3rd
4th 0.1 0.7 2.1 1.8 0.5 0.0 0.0 5.2 4th
5th 0.0 0.0 0.6 2.4 2.3 0.6 0.0 5.9 5th
6th 0.0 0.3 2.3 3.1 0.9 0.1 0.0 6.7 6th
7th 0.2 2.1 3.7 1.4 0.1 0.0 7.5 7th
8th 0.1 1.5 4.1 2.2 0.2 0.0 8.2 8th
9th 0.1 1.3 4.0 2.9 0.4 0.0 8.7 9th
10th 0.1 1.0 3.8 3.6 0.8 0.0 9.3 10th
11th 0.1 1.0 3.6 4.0 1.2 0.1 0.0 10.0 11th
12th 0.1 1.1 3.5 3.8 1.3 0.1 9.9 12th
13th 0.0 0.3 1.5 3.3 3.1 1.2 0.1 0.0 9.7 13th
14th 0.8 2.0 2.7 1.8 0.7 0.1 0.0 8.1 14th
Total 0.8 2.2 4.3 6.3 8.3 9.8 10.7 10.7 10.3 9.3 7.8 6.3 4.9 3.5 2.3 1.4 0.6 0.3 0.1 Total



Conference USA Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.1    0.1
17-1 96.5% 0.2    0.2 0.0
16-2 88.7% 0.5    0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0
15-3 60.2% 0.8    0.5 0.3 0.1 0.0
14-4 27.0% 0.6    0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0
13-5 7.9% 0.3    0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0
12-6 0.8% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.0% 0.0    0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 2.6% 2.6 1.4 0.8 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.1% 87.8% 36.0% 51.8% 5.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 81.0%
17-1 0.3% 64.9% 40.9% 24.0% 9.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 40.7%
16-2 0.6% 45.8% 25.9% 19.8% 10.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.3 26.8%
15-3 1.4% 33.0% 24.6% 8.4% 11.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.9 11.1%
14-4 2.3% 21.9% 19.0% 2.9% 12.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.8 3.6%
13-5 3.5% 10.9% 9.6% 1.3% 12.9 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 3.1 1.5%
12-6 4.9% 8.4% 8.2% 0.2% 13.6 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.0 4.5 0.2%
11-7 6.3% 4.4% 4.4% 0.1% 13.7 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 6.0 0.1%
10-8 7.8% 1.8% 1.8% 0.0% 14.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 7.6 0.0%
9-9 9.3% 1.2% 1.2% 14.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 9.2
8-10 10.3% 0.6% 0.6% 15.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 10.2
7-11 10.7% 0.5% 0.5% 15.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 10.6
6-12 10.7% 0.2% 0.2% 16.0 0.0 10.7
5-13 9.8% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 9.8
4-14 8.3% 8.3
3-15 6.3% 6.3
2-16 4.3% 4.3
1-17 2.2% 2.2
0-18 0.8% 0.8
Total 100% 2.9% 2.5% 0.4% 12.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.7 0.8 0.5 0.3 0.1 97.1 0.5%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.1%