IN CC Stats - NCAA Basketball

Preseason Rankings
Southern Utah
Big Sky
2021-22

Overall
Predictive Rating	+3.0	#122
Expected Predictive Rating	+0.0	#1

Pace	72.9	#91
Improvement	-	-

Offense
Total Offense	+2.8	#94

First Shot	-	-
After Offensive Rebound	-	-

Layup/Dunks	-	-
2 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
3 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
Freethrows	-	-

Improvement	-	-

Defense
Total Defense	+0.2	#169

First Shot	-	-
After Offensive Rebounds	-	-

Layups/Dunks	-	-
2 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
3 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
Freethrows	-	-

Improvement	-	-

	Now	Win Next	Lose Next
#1 Overall Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
#1 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Top 2 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Top 4 Seed	0.2%	0.3%	0.0%
Top 6 Seed	0.6%	0.8%	0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid	24.7%	27.9%	14.2%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier	1.0%	1.3%	0.1%
Average Seed	13.2	13.0	14.3

.500 or above	83.0%	88.8%	63.6%
.500 or above in Conference	88.9%	92.0%	78.8%
Conference Champion	31.5%	35.7%	17.4%
Last Place in Conference	0.6%	0.4%	1.4%

First Four	1.1%	1.1%	1.2%
First Round	24.2%	27.5%	13.6%
Second Round	4.6%	5.5%	1.5%
Sweet Sixteen	1.5%	1.8%	0.4%
Elite Eight	0.3%	0.4%	0.1%
Final Four	0.1%	0.2%	0.0%
Championship Game	0.0%	0.1%	0.0%
National Champion	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%

Next Game: Dixie St. (Away) - 76.8% chance of victory

Projected Seeding

Projected Record by Quad
Quad	Projected	Projected Cumulative
Quad 1a	0 - 1	0 - 1
Quad 1b	0 - 1	0 - 2
Quad 2	1 - 2	1 - 4
Quad 3	5 - 4	6 - 8
Quad 4	13 - 3	19 - 10

Date	Opponent		Result/Prediction			Record	Conf		Rating	Offense	Defense
Nov 12, 2021	303	@ Dixie St.	W	85-77	77%
Nov 15, 2021	49	@ St. Mary's	L	64-74	19%
Nov 18, 2021	113	@ California	L	68-72	37%
Nov 23, 2021	126	Yale	W	77-76	50%
Dec 02, 2021	219	@ Eastern Washington	W	82-79	60%
Dec 04, 2021	341	@ Idaho	W	80-67	86%
Dec 08, 2021	209	Utah Valley	W	81-73	75%
Dec 18, 2021	2	@ Michigan	L	64-82	7%
Dec 22, 2021	303	Dixie St.	W	88-74	86%
Dec 30, 2021	287	Sacramento St.	W	78-65	85%
Jan 01, 2022	201	Northern Colorado	W	80-72	74%
Jan 06, 2022	220	Portland St.	W	81-72	76%
Jan 08, 2022	324	Northern Arizona	W	79-63	90%
Jan 13, 2022	161	@ Montana	L	72-73	49%
Jan 15, 2022	204	@ Montana St.	W	76-74	56%
Jan 22, 2022	236	Idaho St.	W	75-65	79%
Jan 24, 2022	129	Weber St.	W	83-79	61%
Jan 27, 2022	220	@ Portland St.	W	78-75	60%
Feb 03, 2022	341	Idaho	W	83-64	93%
Feb 05, 2022	219	Eastern Washington	W	85-76	76%
Feb 12, 2022	287	@ Sacramento St.	W	75-68	70%
Feb 14, 2022	201	@ Northern Colorado	W	77-75	56%
Feb 19, 2022	204	Montana St.	W	79-71	74%
Feb 21, 2022	324	@ Northern Arizona	W	76-66	78%
Feb 24, 2022	161	Montana	W	75-69	67%
Mar 03, 2022	236	@ Idaho St.	W	72-68	62%
Mar 05, 2022	129	@ Weber St.	L	80-82	42%
Projected Record						17 - 10	14 - 6

Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.

Projected Big Sky Finish

	0-20	1-19	2-18	3-17	4-16	5-15	6-14	7-13	8-12	9-11	10-10	11-9	12-8	13-7	14-6	15-5	16-4	17-3	18-2	19-1	20-0		Total
1st														0.1	0.7	2.7	5.6	7.6	7.6	5.0	2.1		31.5	1st
2nd												0.0	0.2	1.5	4.2	6.1	5.1	2.4	0.5				19.9	2nd
3rd											0.0	0.3	1.8	4.5	4.8	2.4	0.6	0.0					14.4	3rd
4th										0.0	0.4	1.9	3.9	3.3	1.1	0.1							10.7	4th
5th									0.0	0.4	1.7	3.1	2.1	0.6	0.0								7.9	5th
6th								0.0	0.3	1.4	2.2	1.4	0.3	0.0									5.7	6th
7th							0.0	0.4	1.2	1.6	0.8	0.1	0.0										4.2	7th
8th						0.1	0.3	0.8	1.0	0.5	0.1												2.7	8th
9th				0.0	0.1	0.3	0.6	0.6	0.2	0.0													1.8	9th
10th			0.0	0.1	0.2	0.3	0.2	0.1	0.0														0.9	10th
11th	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.1	0.1	0.0	0.0	0.0															0.3	11th

Total	0.0	0.0	0.1	0.2	0.4	0.7	1.2	1.8	2.8	3.9	5.2	6.9	8.3	10.0	10.8	11.4	11.3	10.0	8.1	5.0	2.1			Total

Big Sky Regular Season Championship

Record	Champion	Total		Outright	2-Way	3-Way	4-Way	5-Way	6-Way	7-Way	8-Way
20-0	100.0%	2.1		2.1
19-1	100.0%	5.0		4.9	0.1
18-2	93.9%	7.6		6.7	0.9	0.0
17-3	75.9%	7.6		5.4	2.0	0.1
16-4	50.1%	5.6		3.0	2.2	0.4	0.0
15-5	24.1%	2.7		1.0	1.2	0.5	0.1
14-6	6.8%	0.7		0.2	0.3	0.2	0.0	0.0
13-7	1.0%	0.1		0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
12-8	0.0%
11-9	0.0%
10-10	0.0%

Total	31.5%	31.5		23.3	6.8	1.2	0.2	0.0

NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf Record	Record Chance		Tourney Bid	Auto	At-Large	Avg Seed		1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	No Bid		At-Large if not Auto
20-0	2.1%		80.1%	68.7%	11.4%	9.0		0.0	0.0	0.1	0.1	0.1	0.2	0.1	0.1	0.1	0.1	0.2	0.3	0.2	0.0	0.0		0.4		36.3%
19-1	5.0%		65.2%	59.9%	5.4%	11.6				0.0	0.0	0.0	0.1	0.1	0.1	0.2	0.2	0.5	0.9	1.0	0.3	0.0		1.8		13.3%
18-2	8.1%		52.4%	50.1%	2.3%	12.7							0.0	0.0	0.0	0.1	0.1	0.3	1.2	1.6	0.8	0.1	0.0	3.8		4.7%
17-3	10.0%		41.4%	40.9%	0.5%	13.3								0.0	0.0		0.0	0.1	0.7	1.6	1.3	0.4	0.0	5.8		0.9%
16-4	11.3%		33.2%	33.1%	0.2%	13.8											0.0	0.0	0.3	1.1	1.4	0.8	0.1	7.5		0.2%
15-5	11.4%		24.8%	24.8%		14.3												0.0	0.1	0.5	1.1	1.0	0.2	8.6
14-6	10.8%		18.6%	18.6%		14.7													0.0	0.2	0.6	0.9	0.4	8.8
13-7	10.0%		12.6%	12.6%		15.0													0.0	0.1	0.2	0.6	0.4	8.7
12-8	8.3%		9.5%	9.5%		15.3													0.0	0.0	0.1	0.3	0.4	7.5
11-9	6.9%		6.0%	6.0%		15.6															0.0	0.1	0.3	6.5
10-10	5.2%		4.4%	4.4%		15.8															0.0	0.0	0.2	4.9
9-11	3.9%		2.3%	2.3%		16.0																0.0	0.1	3.8
8-12	2.8%		1.3%	1.3%		16.0																	0.0	2.8
7-13	1.8%		0.6%	0.6%		16.0																	0.0	1.8
6-14	1.2%		1.1%	1.1%		16.0																	0.0	1.2
5-15	0.7%		0.3%	0.3%		16.0																	0.0	0.7
4-16	0.4%																							0.4
3-17	0.2%																							0.2
2-18	0.1%																							0.1
1-19	0.0%																							0.0
0-20	0.0%																							0.0

Total	100%		24.7%	24.0%	0.8%	13.2		0.0	0.0	0.1	0.1	0.2	0.2	0.2	0.2	0.3	0.4	1.0	3.5	6.3	5.8	4.3	2.0	75.3		1.0%

Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

	Chance	Tourney Bid	Avg Seed	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16
Win Out	0.1%	100.0%	3.9	2.4	12.0	26.5	28.9	9.6	18.4	2.1
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship	0.0%	98.6%	6.1				10.1	30.4	29.0	10.1	10.1	8.7
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final	0.0%	84.2%	5.0			15.8		34.2	34.2