IN CC Stats - NCAA Basketball

Preseason Rankings
St. Peter's
Metro Atlantic Athletic
2021-22

Overall
Predictive Rating	-1.2	#191
Expected Predictive Rating	+0.0	#1

Pace	67.1	#235
Improvement	-	-

Offense
Total Offense	-4.6	#310

First Shot	-	-
After Offensive Rebound	-	-

Layup/Dunks	-	-
2 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
3 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
Freethrows	-	-

Improvement	-	-

Defense
Total Defense	+3.3	#85

First Shot	-	-
After Offensive Rebounds	-	-

Layups/Dunks	-	-
2 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
3 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
Freethrows	-	-

Improvement	-	-

	Now	Win Next	Lose Next
#1 Overall Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
#1 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Top 2 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Top 4 Seed	0.0%	0.1%	0.0%
Top 6 Seed	0.1%	0.5%	0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid	14.9%	27.2%	12.9%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier	0.2%	1.3%	0.0%
Average Seed	14.2	13.3	14.5

.500 or above	62.6%	88.2%	58.4%
.500 or above in Conference	72.3%	89.5%	69.5%
Conference Champion	18.9%	35.5%	16.2%
Last Place in Conference	4.2%	0.9%	4.8%

First Four	1.4%	1.4%	1.4%
First Round	14.2%	26.4%	12.2%
Second Round	1.5%	3.9%	1.1%
Sweet Sixteen	0.4%	1.1%	0.2%
Elite Eight	0.1%	0.3%	0.0%
Final Four	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Championship Game	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
National Champion	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%

Next Game: Virginia Commonwealth (Away) - 14.3% chance of victory

Projected Seeding

Not in Tournament

Projected Record by Quad
Quad	Projected	Projected Cumulative
Quad 1a	0 - 1	0 - 1
Quad 1b	0 - 1	0 - 2
Quad 2	0 - 2	1 - 4
Quad 3	3 - 5	4 - 8
Quad 4	13 - 5	16 - 14

Date	Opponent		Result/Prediction			Record	Conf		Rating	Offense	Defense
Nov 09, 2021	77	@ Virginia Commonwealth	L	61-72	14%
Nov 13, 2021	52	@ St. John's	L	66-80	11%
Nov 17, 2021	228	@ Wagner	L	65-66	48%
Nov 23, 2021	254	LIU Brooklyn	W	75-68	72%
Nov 27, 2021	65	@ Providence	L	58-71	14%
Dec 03, 2021	261	@ Quinnipiac	W	70-69	54%
Dec 05, 2021	227	Siena	W	67-62	67%
Dec 08, 2021	320	St. Francis Brooklyn	W	78-67	82%
Dec 18, 2021	188	@ Stony Brook	L	63-66	40%
Dec 22, 2021	323	@ Fairleigh Dickinson	W	75-69	68%
Dec 31, 2021	265	Canisius	W	73-66	72%
Jan 02, 2022	246	@ Marist	W	63-62	52%
Jan 07, 2022	146	Iona	W	67-66	51%
Jan 09, 2022	278	@ Manhattan	W	64-62	57%
Jan 14, 2022	216	Monmouth	W	75-70	64%
Jan 16, 2022	248	@ Rider	W	68-67	52%
Jan 21, 2022	250	@ Niagara	W	64-63	52%
Jan 23, 2022	265	@ Canisius	W	70-69	54%
Jan 28, 2022	278	Manhattan	W	67-59	74%
Jan 30, 2022	146	@ Iona	L	63-69	33%
Feb 04, 2022	261	Quinnipiac	W	73-66	72%
Feb 06, 2022	246	Marist	W	66-59	70%
Feb 11, 2022	248	Rider	W	71-64	70%
Feb 18, 2022	260	@ Fairfield	W	61-60	53%
Feb 20, 2022	227	@ Siena	L	64-65	48%
Feb 25, 2022	216	@ Monmouth	L	72-73	45%
Feb 27, 2022	250	Niagara	W	67-60	70%
Mar 05, 2022	260	Fairfield	W	64-57	71%
Projected Record						15 - 13	12 - 8

Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.

Projected Metro Atlantic Athletic Finish

	0-20	1-19	2-18	3-17	4-16	5-15	6-14	7-13	8-12	9-11	10-10	11-9	12-8	13-7	14-6	15-5	16-4	17-3	18-2	19-1	20-0		Total
1st													0.0	0.2	1.2	2.8	4.2	4.4	3.5	1.9	0.7		18.9	1st
2nd												0.1	0.6	2.3	4.3	4.4	2.6	0.8	0.1				15.2	2nd
3rd											0.1	0.8	3.2	4.3	3.2	1.0	0.2	0.0					12.9	3rd
4th									0.0	0.0	0.8	3.5	4.2	2.0	0.4	0.0	0.0						11.0	4th
5th									0.0	0.9	3.1	3.7	1.5	0.2	0.0								9.5	5th
6th								0.1	0.8	2.8	3.2	1.3	0.1	0.0									8.2	6th
7th							0.1	0.7	2.3	2.8	1.0	0.1	0.0										7.0	7th
8th					0.0	0.1	0.7	2.0	2.2	0.8	0.1												5.9	8th
9th				0.0	0.2	0.8	1.5	1.6	0.6	0.1	0.0												4.8	9th
10th		0.0	0.1	0.2	0.8	1.4	1.1	0.4	0.0	0.0													3.9	10th
11th	0.0	0.2	0.5	0.6	0.7	0.5	0.1	0.0															2.6	11th

Total	0.0	0.2	0.5	0.8	1.7	2.7	3.5	4.8	6.0	7.4	8.2	9.4	9.7	9.2	9.1	8.3	7.0	5.2	3.7	1.9	0.7			Total

Metro Atlantic Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record	Champion	Total		Outright	2-Way	3-Way	4-Way	5-Way	6-Way	7-Way	8-Way
20-0	100.0%	0.7		0.7
19-1	100.0%	1.9		1.9	0.0
18-2	96.0%	3.5		3.2	0.3	0.0
17-3	83.6%	4.4		3.4	1.0	0.0
16-4	60.5%	4.2		2.7	1.4	0.2	0.0
15-5	34.1%	2.8		1.3	1.2	0.3	0.0
14-6	12.7%	1.2		0.3	0.5	0.3	0.1	0.0
13-7	2.5%	0.2		0.0	0.1	0.1	0.0	0.0
12-8	0.3%	0.0			0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
11-9	0.0%
10-10	0.0%

Total	18.9%	18.9		13.3	4.5	0.9	0.1	0.0

NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf Record	Record Chance		Tourney Bid	Auto	At-Large	Avg Seed		1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	No Bid		At-Large if not Auto
20-0	0.7%		75.2%	67.4%	7.8%	10.5			0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.1	0.1	0.1	0.0	0.0		0.2		23.9%
19-1	1.9%		62.6%	59.3%	3.3%	12.3					0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.1	0.3	0.5	0.2	0.0	0.0	0.7		8.2%
18-2	3.7%		48.4%	47.6%	0.9%	13.1									0.0	0.0	0.0	0.1	0.4	0.7	0.5	0.1	0.0	1.9		1.6%
17-3	5.2%		39.4%	39.2%	0.2%	13.6										0.0		0.0	0.2	0.7	0.8	0.4	0.0	3.2		0.4%
16-4	7.0%		30.9%	30.9%		14.2												0.0	0.1	0.4	0.8	0.7	0.1	4.8
15-5	8.3%		25.0%	25.0%		14.6													0.0	0.2	0.7	0.9	0.3	6.2
14-6	9.1%		19.0%	19.0%		15.0													0.0	0.1	0.3	0.8	0.5	7.3
13-7	9.2%		13.7%	13.7%		15.3													0.0	0.0	0.1	0.6	0.5	7.9
12-8	9.7%		9.7%	9.7%		15.5														0.0	0.1	0.3	0.6	8.7
11-9	9.4%		6.0%	6.0%		15.6														0.0	0.0	0.2	0.4	8.9
10-10	8.2%		4.3%	4.3%		15.8															0.0	0.0	0.3	7.9
9-11	7.4%		2.3%	2.3%		16.0																0.0	0.2	7.3
8-12	6.0%		1.5%	1.5%		15.9																0.0	0.1	5.9
7-13	4.8%		0.7%	0.7%		16.0																	0.0	4.7
6-14	3.5%		0.5%	0.5%		16.0																	0.0	3.4
5-15	2.7%		0.2%	0.2%		16.0																	0.0	2.7
4-16	1.7%		0.3%	0.3%		16.0																	0.0	1.7
3-17	0.8%																							0.8
2-18	0.5%																							0.5
1-19	0.2%																							0.2
0-20	0.0%																							0.0

Total	100%		14.9%	14.8%	0.2%	14.2			0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.1	0.1	0.3	1.1	2.7	3.6	4.0	3.0	85.1		0.2%

Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

	Chance	Tourney Bid	Avg Seed	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16
Win Out	0.0%	100.0%	5.0		7.5	16.3	16.3	16.3	35.0			8.8
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship	0.0%	100.0%	6.3					24.0	24.0	52.0
Lose Out	0.0%