Preseason Rankings
Stephen F. Austin
Western Athletic
2021-22
Overall
Predictive Rating+0.8#153
Expected Predictive Rating+0.0#1
Pace71.4#123
Improvement--

Offense
Total Offense+0.5#160
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebound--
Layup/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--

Defense
Total Defense+0.3#165
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebounds--
Layups/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.2% 0.2% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 13.6% 14.8% 5.2%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.4% 0.4% 0.0%
Average Seed 13.5 13.4 14.6
.500 or above 76.9% 81.2% 46.1%
.500 or above in Conference 81.6% 84.2% 62.8%
Conference Champion 15.2% 16.6% 5.3%
Last Place in Conference 0.2% 0.2% 0.9%
First Four0.6% 0.6% 0.6%
First Round13.3% 14.5% 4.9%
Second Round2.1% 2.3% 0.3%
Sweet Sixteen0.6% 0.7% 0.1%
Elite Eight0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Southern (Home) - 87.8% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 2
Quad 21 - 21 - 4
Quad 34 - 44 - 8
Quad 413 - 317 - 11


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 11, 2021 317   Southern W 81-68 88%    
  Nov 14, 2021 99   South Dakota St. L 79-81 44%    
  Nov 19, 2021 267   Middle Tennessee W 79-69 80%    
  Nov 23, 2021 83   Buffalo L 77-83 31%    
  Nov 28, 2021 338   @ Northwestern St. W 82-72 79%    
  Dec 11, 2021 110   Liberty L 66-70 38%    
  Dec 14, 2021 269   Louisiana Monroe W 76-66 79%    
  Dec 18, 2021 4   @ Kansas L 64-83 6%    
  Dec 21, 2021 262   Jackson St. W 74-65 77%    
  Dec 30, 2021 310   UT Rio Grande Valley W 80-68 84%    
  Jan 01, 2022 308   Lamar W 79-67 83%    
  Jan 06, 2022 167   @ Abilene Christian L 71-73 43%    
  Jan 08, 2022 185   @ Tarleton St. L 68-69 46%    
  Jan 15, 2022 196   @ Sam Houston St. L 76-77 49%    
  Jan 20, 2022 142   Grand Canyon W 71-69 56%    
  Jan 22, 2022 102   New Mexico St. L 68-69 46%    
  Jan 26, 2022 179   @ Seattle L 74-76 45%    
  Jan 29, 2022 215   @ California Baptist W 79-78 52%    
  Feb 03, 2022 209   Utah Valley W 78-72 69%    
  Feb 05, 2022 303   Dixie St. W 85-73 82%    
  Feb 10, 2022 357   @ Chicago St. W 85-65 94%    
  Feb 16, 2022 357   Chicago St. W 88-62 98%    
  Feb 19, 2022 308   @ Lamar W 76-70 68%    
  Feb 24, 2022 196   Sam Houston St. W 80-74 67%    
  Feb 26, 2022 167   Abilene Christian W 74-70 61%    
  Mar 02, 2022 102   @ New Mexico St. L 65-72 29%    
  Mar 05, 2022 310   @ UT Rio Grande Valley W 77-71 69%    
Projected Record 17 - 10 11 - 7




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Western Athletic Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.5 2.3 4.1 4.5 2.9 0.9 15.2 1st
2nd 0.0 0.8 3.4 5.3 3.4 0.8 0.0 13.8 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.8 3.9 5.2 2.4 0.3 0.0 12.6 3rd
4th 0.1 0.8 3.6 4.9 2.2 0.2 0.0 11.8 4th
5th 0.0 0.5 3.0 4.9 2.1 0.2 0.0 10.7 5th
6th 0.0 0.3 2.4 4.5 2.2 0.2 0.0 9.6 6th
7th 0.0 0.3 1.9 3.7 2.0 0.3 0.0 8.1 7th
8th 0.0 0.2 1.4 3.0 1.8 0.2 0.0 6.6 8th
9th 0.0 0.1 1.1 2.2 1.5 0.2 0.0 5.1 9th
10th 0.0 0.2 0.8 1.4 0.9 0.2 0.0 3.4 10th
11th 0.0 0.1 0.5 0.8 0.5 0.1 0.0 2.0 11th
12th 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.9 12th
13th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 13th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.5 0.9 1.9 3.2 4.9 6.9 8.6 10.5 11.8 11.9 11.6 10.2 7.8 5.3 2.9 0.9 Total



Western Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.9    0.9
17-1 99.1% 2.9    2.6 0.3
16-2 84.5% 4.5    3.2 1.2 0.1
15-3 52.1% 4.1    1.8 1.8 0.4 0.0
14-4 22.4% 2.3    0.5 1.0 0.6 0.1 0.0
13-5 4.7% 0.5    0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0
12-6 0.3% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 15.2% 15.2 9.1 4.5 1.3 0.3 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.9% 71.9% 61.4% 10.4% 9.5 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.3 27.1%
17-1 2.9% 57.5% 52.5% 5.1% 12.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.5 0.5 0.1 0.0 0.0 1.2 10.7%
16-2 5.3% 43.3% 41.8% 1.5% 13.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.6 0.9 0.5 0.1 0.0 3.0 2.6%
15-3 7.8% 32.4% 32.2% 0.2% 13.5 0.0 0.0 0.3 1.0 0.8 0.3 0.0 5.3 0.3%
14-4 10.2% 24.2% 24.2% 14.0 0.0 0.1 0.6 0.9 0.7 0.1 7.7
13-5 11.6% 15.1% 15.1% 14.5 0.0 0.2 0.6 0.7 0.2 9.8
12-6 11.9% 9.1% 9.1% 14.8 0.1 0.3 0.5 0.2 10.8
11-7 11.8% 5.9% 5.9% 15.1 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.2 11.1
10-8 10.5% 2.9% 2.9% 15.5 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 10.2
9-9 8.6% 1.6% 1.6% 15.7 0.0 0.0 0.1 8.5
8-10 6.9% 0.4% 0.4% 15.8 0.0 0.0 6.9
7-11 4.9% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 4.9
6-12 3.2% 3.2
5-13 1.9% 1.9
4-14 0.9% 0.9
3-15 0.5% 0.5
2-16 0.2% 0.2
1-17 0.0% 0.0
0-18 0.0% 0.0
Total 100% 13.6% 13.3% 0.3% 13.5 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.4 1.7 3.5 3.4 2.8 1.2 86.4 0.4%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.0% 100.0% 4.0 10.3 27.0 31.7 11.1 9.5 10.3
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.0% 80.0% 6.8 20.0 20.0 20.0 20.0
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.0% 85.4% 9.2 17.1 34.1 17.1 17.1