Preseason Rankings
Tulsa
American Athletic
2021-22
Overall
Predictive Rating+4.5#108
Expected Predictive Rating+0.0#1
Pace64.7#293
Improvement--

Offense
Total Offense+0.7#153
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebound--
Layup/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--

Defense
Total Defense+3.7#72
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebounds--
Layups/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.3% 0.3% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 1.1% 1.1% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 2.3% 2.4% 0.1%
NCAA Tourney Bid 12.5% 13.0% 1.4%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 9.7% 10.1% 0.6%
Average Seed 9.1 9.1 10.7
.500 or above 55.0% 56.5% 16.0%
.500 or above in Conference 43.5% 44.6% 15.1%
Conference Champion 3.1% 3.2% 0.3%
Last Place in Conference 10.4% 9.8% 27.8%
First Four2.3% 2.4% 0.2%
First Round11.3% 11.6% 1.2%
Second Round5.2% 5.4% 0.4%
Sweet Sixteen1.7% 1.8% 0.1%
Elite Eight0.7% 0.7% 0.1%
Final Four0.2% 0.3% 0.1%
Championship Game0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Northwestern St. (Home) - 96.4% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 30 - 3
Quad 1b1 - 31 - 6
Quad 23 - 54 - 11
Quad 36 - 410 - 15
Quad 47 - 116 - 15


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 10, 2021 338   Northwestern St. W 81-62 96%    
  Nov 13, 2021 306   Air Force W 71-56 92%    
  Nov 15, 2021 70   Oregon St. L 65-66 48%    
  Nov 20, 2021 101   Rhode Island L 68-69 47%    
  Nov 26, 2021 277   Arkansas Little Rock W 73-59 88%    
  Nov 29, 2021 154   @ Oral Roberts W 74-73 53%    
  Dec 03, 2021 76   @ Boise St. L 66-72 32%    
  Dec 07, 2021 82   Loyola Marymount W 67-66 52%    
  Dec 11, 2021 140   Southern Illinois W 68-62 68%    
  Dec 16, 2021 347   Alcorn St. W 80-58 96%    
  Dec 17, 2021 51   Colorado St. L 67-72 34%    
  Dec 21, 2021 123   North Texas W 62-61 55%    
  Dec 29, 2021 62   SMU L 70-71 46%    
  Jan 04, 2022 11   @ Memphis L 62-76 14%    
  Jan 08, 2022 68   @ Central Florida L 63-70 30%    
  Jan 12, 2022 120   Temple W 69-65 63%    
  Jan 15, 2022 13   Houston L 59-67 27%    
  Jan 20, 2022 90   @ Cincinnati L 67-72 36%    
  Jan 23, 2022 11   Memphis L 65-73 27%    
  Jan 26, 2022 136   @ Tulane L 65-66 48%    
  Jan 29, 2022 177   South Florida W 69-61 73%    
  Feb 01, 2022 54   @ Wichita St. L 62-70 27%    
  Feb 05, 2022 120   @ Temple L 66-68 45%    
  Feb 08, 2022 183   East Carolina W 71-63 75%    
  Feb 12, 2022 90   Cincinnati W 70-69 55%    
  Feb 19, 2022 177   @ South Florida W 66-64 56%    
  Feb 23, 2022 62   @ SMU L 67-74 28%    
  Feb 26, 2022 183   @ East Carolina W 68-66 57%    
  Mar 02, 2022 54   Wichita St. L 65-67 44%    
  Mar 06, 2022 68   Central Florida L 66-67 48%    
Projected Record 16 - 14 8 - 10




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected American Athletic Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.1 0.3 0.7 0.9 0.7 0.3 0.1 3.1 1st
2nd 0.0 0.2 1.1 2.1 1.7 0.7 0.1 0.0 6.0 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.0 0.6 2.1 3.1 1.8 0.5 0.0 8.1 3rd
4th 0.1 0.9 3.1 3.7 1.6 0.2 0.0 9.6 4th
5th 0.1 1.2 3.9 4.2 1.5 0.2 0.0 11.0 5th
6th 0.1 1.4 4.5 4.4 1.4 0.1 0.0 11.8 6th
7th 0.2 1.7 4.7 4.1 1.1 0.1 11.8 7th
8th 0.0 0.2 2.1 4.7 3.8 0.9 0.1 11.9 8th
9th 0.0 0.4 2.4 4.3 3.2 0.7 0.0 11.1 9th
10th 0.1 0.8 2.6 3.3 2.0 0.4 0.0 0.0 9.2 10th
11th 0.3 1.2 2.0 1.8 0.9 0.1 0.0 6.4 11th
Total 0.3 1.3 2.8 4.8 6.9 8.7 10.2 10.6 10.8 10.4 9.3 7.6 6.1 4.4 2.9 1.6 0.8 0.3 0.1 Total



American Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.1    0.1
17-1 97.7% 0.3    0.3 0.0
16-2 86.7% 0.7    0.5 0.2 0.0
15-3 54.5% 0.9    0.5 0.3 0.1
14-4 25.2% 0.7    0.3 0.3 0.1 0.0
13-5 7.5% 0.3    0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0
12-6 1.2% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 3.1% 3.1 1.7 1.0 0.3 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.1% 100.0% 50.0% 50.0% 2.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0%
17-1 0.3% 99.2% 33.5% 65.7% 3.8 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 98.9%
16-2 0.8% 97.8% 28.8% 69.0% 5.2 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 96.9%
15-3 1.6% 89.1% 22.6% 66.5% 6.9 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.2 86.0%
14-4 2.9% 77.5% 16.5% 61.1% 8.3 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.7 73.1%
13-5 4.4% 59.3% 10.8% 48.5% 9.5 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.3 0.0 1.8 54.3%
12-6 6.1% 36.3% 8.0% 28.3% 10.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.5 0.6 0.4 0.1 0.0 3.9 30.7%
11-7 7.6% 19.2% 4.2% 15.0% 10.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.5 0.4 0.1 0.0 6.2 15.7%
10-8 9.3% 8.4% 2.8% 5.6% 11.3 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 8.5 5.8%
9-9 10.4% 3.7% 1.7% 2.0% 11.8 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 10.0 2.0%
8-10 10.8% 1.1% 0.8% 0.2% 12.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 10.7 0.3%
7-11 10.6% 0.3% 0.3% 0.0% 13.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 10.6 0.0%
6-12 10.2% 0.3% 0.3% 14.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 10.1
5-13 8.7% 0.2% 0.2% 15.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 8.7
4-14 6.9% 0.1% 0.1% 15.5 0.0 0.0 6.8
3-15 4.8% 4.8
2-16 2.8% 2.8
1-17 1.3% 1.3
0-18 0.3% 0.3
Total 100% 12.5% 3.1% 9.4% 9.1 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.5 0.6 0.6 0.9 1.2 1.5 1.9 2.5 1.9 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0 87.5 9.7%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.0% 100.0% 1.3 69.1 30.9
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.0% 100.0% 2.4 21.9 37.5 21.9 18.8