Preseason Rankings
UC Irvine
Big West
2021-22
Overall
Predictive Rating+4.3#111
Expected Predictive Rating+0.0#1
Pace68.0#213
Improvement--

Offense
Total Offense+0.9#149
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebound--
Layup/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--

Defense
Total Defense+3.4#81
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebounds--
Layups/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.1% 0.4% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.7% 1.7% 0.1%
Top 6 Seed 1.5% 3.6% 0.4%
NCAA Tourney Bid 27.2% 38.6% 20.9%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 2.6% 6.3% 1.0%
Average Seed 12.3 11.4 13.2
.500 or above 78.5% 92.4% 70.9%
.500 or above in Conference 89.5% 95.8% 86.1%
Conference Champion 31.5% 44.2% 24.5%
Last Place in Conference 0.8% 0.2% 1.1%
First Four1.6% 2.1% 1.4%
First Round26.4% 37.6% 20.3%
Second Round6.6% 11.8% 3.7%
Sweet Sixteen2.1% 4.1% 1.0%
Elite Eight0.6% 1.3% 0.3%
Final Four0.2% 0.4% 0.1%
Championship Game0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.1% 0.0%

Next Game: New Mexico St. (Away) - 35.5% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 2
Quad 21 - 32 - 5
Quad 36 - 48 - 9
Quad 411 - 219 - 11


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 09, 2021 102   @ New Mexico St. L 64-68 36%    
  Nov 13, 2021 76   Boise St. W 71-70 50%    
  Nov 20, 2021 147   Pepperdine W 77-71 69%    
  Nov 27, 2021 124   @ Santa Clara L 72-74 44%    
  Dec 11, 2021 138   @ Fresno St. L 67-68 48%    
  Dec 15, 2021 20   @ USC L 62-74 16%    
  Dec 19, 2021 162   Duquesne W 71-67 63%    
  Dec 21, 2021 83   @ Buffalo L 74-79 33%    
  Dec 30, 2021 296   Cal St. Northridge W 82-67 88%    
  Jan 01, 2022 97   UC Santa Barbara W 69-67 56%    
  Jan 06, 2022 208   @ UC Davis W 73-70 61%    
  Jan 08, 2022 148   @ UC Riverside L 67-68 50%    
  Jan 11, 2022 263   UC San Diego W 79-66 84%    
  Jan 14, 2022 202   @ Hawaii W 69-66 60%    
  Jan 20, 2022 231   Cal St. Fullerton W 81-70 81%    
  Jan 22, 2022 271   @ Long Beach St. W 79-72 72%    
  Jan 27, 2022 203   Cal St. Bakersfield W 70-61 77%    
  Jan 29, 2022 305   Cal Poly W 76-61 89%    
  Feb 03, 2022 97   @ UC Santa Barbara L 66-70 37%    
  Feb 05, 2022 296   @ Cal St. Northridge W 79-70 75%    
  Feb 10, 2022 148   UC Riverside W 70-64 68%    
  Feb 12, 2022 208   UC Davis W 76-67 77%    
  Feb 15, 2022 263   @ UC San Diego W 76-69 70%    
  Feb 19, 2022 202   Hawaii W 72-63 77%    
  Feb 24, 2022 231   @ Cal St. Fullerton W 78-73 65%    
  Feb 26, 2022 271   Long Beach St. W 82-69 85%    
  Mar 03, 2022 305   @ Cal Poly W 73-64 77%    
  Mar 05, 2022 203   @ Cal St. Bakersfield W 67-64 60%    
Projected Record 18 - 10 14 - 6




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big West Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.1 0.6 2.5 5.2 7.6 7.7 5.4 2.4 31.5 1st
2nd 0.0 0.3 1.6 4.2 6.2 5.5 3.0 0.7 21.4 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.5 2.2 4.4 4.7 2.6 0.6 0.0 15.1 3rd
4th 0.0 0.5 2.1 3.8 3.0 1.0 0.1 0.0 10.5 4th
5th 0.0 0.4 1.8 3.0 1.7 0.4 0.0 7.5 5th
6th 0.0 0.3 1.6 2.0 1.0 0.2 0.0 5.2 6th
7th 0.0 0.1 0.3 1.1 1.4 0.7 0.1 0.0 3.7 7th
8th 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.8 0.9 0.4 0.0 0.0 2.3 8th
9th 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.5 0.5 0.2 0.0 1.5 9th
10th 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.9 10th
11th 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.4 11th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.6 1.1 1.7 2.6 3.8 5.0 6.8 8.1 9.5 10.5 11.4 11.4 10.6 8.4 5.4 2.4 Total



Big West Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0 100.0% 2.4    2.4
19-1 100.0% 5.4    5.2 0.2
18-2 91.7% 7.7    6.5 1.2 0.0
17-3 71.7% 7.6    5.3 2.1 0.1
16-4 46.1% 5.2    2.9 1.9 0.4 0.0
15-5 21.6% 2.5    0.9 1.1 0.5 0.0 0.0
14-6 6.0% 0.6    0.1 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0
13-7 1.1% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
12-8 0.0% 0.0    0.0
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 31.5% 31.5 23.4 6.7 1.2 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0 2.4% 86.8% 72.1% 14.8% 7.5 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.3 52.9%
19-1 5.4% 71.9% 61.0% 10.9% 10.1 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.6 0.9 0.5 0.1 0.0 1.5 28.0%
18-2 8.4% 57.8% 50.8% 7.0% 11.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.8 1.6 1.3 0.4 0.0 0.0 3.5 14.2%
17-3 10.6% 44.3% 41.2% 3.1% 12.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.4 1.4 1.6 0.9 0.2 0.0 5.9 5.2%
16-4 11.4% 33.0% 32.2% 0.7% 13.2 0.0 0.1 0.8 1.4 1.0 0.4 0.0 7.6 1.1%
15-5 11.4% 25.2% 25.0% 0.2% 13.7 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.8 1.1 0.6 0.1 8.6 0.2%
14-6 10.5% 18.9% 18.8% 0.1% 14.1 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.7 0.5 0.2 8.5 0.1%
13-7 9.5% 13.4% 13.4% 14.6 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.5 0.2 8.3
12-8 8.1% 10.3% 10.3% 14.9 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.2 7.3
11-9 6.8% 6.8% 6.8% 15.4 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 6.3
10-10 5.0% 5.6% 5.6% 15.7 0.0 0.1 0.2 4.8
9-11 3.8% 3.7% 3.7% 15.9 0.0 0.0 0.1 3.7
8-12 2.6% 2.4% 2.4% 16.0 0.1 2.5
7-13 1.7% 1.0% 1.0% 16.0 0.0 1.7
6-14 1.1% 0.2% 0.2% 16.0 0.0 1.1
5-15 0.6% 0.6
4-16 0.4% 0.4
3-17 0.2% 0.2
2-18 0.1% 0.1
1-19 0.0% 0.0
0-20 0.0% 0.0
Total 100% 27.2% 25.2% 2.0% 12.3 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.7 1.0 2.1 5.4 6.4 4.9 2.8 1.5 72.8 2.6%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.2% 100.0% 3.0 13.4 24.5 23.7 27.5 9.5 1.4
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.0% 100.0% 3.4 7.9 14.6 37.1 22.5 9.0 9.0
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.0% 100.0% 4.6 21.2 18.2 42.4 18.2