IN CC Stats - NCAA Basketball

Preseason Rankings
UT Rio Grande Valley
Western Athletic
2021-22

Overall
Predictive Rating	-8.4	#310
Expected Predictive Rating	+0.0	#1

Pace	73.4	#82
Improvement	-	-

Offense
Total Offense	-5.7	#329

First Shot	-	-
After Offensive Rebound	-	-

Layup/Dunks	-	-
2 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
3 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
Freethrows	-	-

Improvement	-	-

Defense
Total Defense	-2.7	#257

First Shot	-	-
After Offensive Rebounds	-	-

Layups/Dunks	-	-
2 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
3 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
Freethrows	-	-

Improvement	-	-

	Now	Win Next	Lose Next
#1 Overall Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
#1 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Top 2 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Top 4 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Top 6 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid	0.9%	4.9%	0.9%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Average Seed	14.9	14.2	14.9

.500 or above	15.1%	57.4%	14.5%
.500 or above in Conference	20.2%	54.6%	19.7%
Conference Champion	0.7%	3.9%	0.6%
Last Place in Conference	6.7%	1.3%	6.8%

First Four	0.1%	0.1%	0.1%
First Round	0.9%	4.9%	0.8%
Second Round	0.0%	0.5%	0.0%
Sweet Sixteen	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Elite Eight	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Final Four	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Championship Game	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
National Champion	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%

Next Game: Arizona (Away) - 1.5% chance of victory

Projected Seeding

Not in Tournament

Projected Record by Quad
Quad	Projected	Projected Cumulative
Quad 1a	0 - 2	0 - 2
Quad 1b	0 - 1	0 - 3
Quad 2	0 - 2	0 - 5
Quad 3	1 - 7	2 - 12
Quad 4	8 - 7	9 - 19

Date	Opponent		Result/Prediction			Record	Conf		Rating	Offense	Defense
Nov 12, 2021	31	@ Arizona	L	60-84	1%
Nov 20, 2021	324	Northern Arizona	W	70-66	65%
Nov 22, 2021	324	@ Northern Arizona	L	67-69	45%
Nov 23, 2021	231	Cal St. Fullerton	L	76-81	34%
Nov 26, 2021	8	@ Illinois	L	62-90	1%
Dec 01, 2021	342	TX A&M Corpus Christi	W	76-69	73%
Dec 03, 2021	7	@ Texas	L	59-87	1%
Dec 08, 2021	342	@ TX A&M Corpus Christi	W	73-72	55%
Dec 14, 2021	211	Texas Southern	L	75-78	40%
Dec 16, 2021	207	@ Texas San Antonio	L	73-82	22%
Dec 30, 2021	153	@ Stephen F. Austin	L	68-80	16%
Jan 01, 2022	196	@ Sam Houston St.	L	71-81	22%
Jan 06, 2022	142	Grand Canyon	L	66-73	28%
Jan 08, 2022	102	New Mexico St.	L	63-74	20%
Jan 13, 2022	357	Chicago St.	W	83-66	91%
Jan 20, 2022	209	@ Utah Valley	L	70-79	23%
Jan 22, 2022	303	@ Dixie St.	L	76-80	39%
Jan 26, 2022	167	Abilene Christian	L	69-75	33%
Jan 29, 2022	185	Tarleton St.	L	66-70	36%
Feb 02, 2022	308	Lamar	W	73-70	59%
Feb 05, 2022	167	@ Abilene Christian	L	66-78	18%
Feb 10, 2022	179	@ Seattle	L	69-80	19%
Feb 12, 2022	215	@ California Baptist	L	73-82	25%
Feb 16, 2022	179	Seattle	L	72-77	35%
Feb 19, 2022	196	Sam Houston St.	L	74-78	39%
Feb 24, 2022	185	@ Tarleton St.	L	63-73	20%
Mar 02, 2022	308	@ Lamar	L	70-73	40%
Mar 05, 2022	153	Stephen F. Austin	L	71-77	31%
Projected Record						9 - 19	6 - 12

Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.

Projected Western Athletic Finish

	0-18	1-17	2-16	3-15	4-14	5-13	6-12	7-11	8-10	9-9	10-8	11-7	12-6	13-5	14-4	15-3	16-2	17-1	18-0		Total
1st													0.0	0.1	0.2	0.2	0.1	0.0	0.0		0.7	1st
2nd												0.0	0.2	0.5	0.4	0.2	0.0				1.4	2nd
3rd											0.0	0.3	0.8	0.6	0.2	0.0					1.9	3rd
4th										0.0	0.4	1.2	0.9	0.2	0.0						2.8	4th
5th									0.0	0.4	1.6	1.5	0.4	0.0							3.8	5th
6th								0.0	0.4	1.8	1.9	0.5	0.0								4.6	6th
7th							0.0	0.5	2.1	2.7	0.9	0.1									6.3	7th
8th						0.0	0.6	2.7	3.7	1.4	0.1										8.5	8th
9th				0.0	0.1	1.1	3.5	4.7	2.0	0.2	0.0										11.7	9th
10th			0.0	0.3	2.1	5.2	5.6	2.3	0.3	0.0											15.9	10th
11th		0.0	0.9	3.9	6.4	5.5	2.2	0.3	0.0												19.1	11th
12th		2.5	6.1	6.3	3.7	1.2	0.2	0.0													20.1	12th
13th	0.8	1.3	0.8	0.3	0.0	0.0															3.3	13th

Total	0.8	3.9	7.8	10.8	12.3	13.1	12.1	10.5	8.5	6.5	4.9	3.6	2.4	1.5	0.8	0.4	0.1	0.0	0.0			Total

Western Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record	Champion	Total		Outright	2-Way	3-Way	4-Way	5-Way	6-Way	7-Way	8-Way
18-0	100.0%	0.0		0.0
17-1	100.0%	0.0		0.0	0.0
16-2	77.8%	0.1		0.1	0.0	0.0
15-3	57.5%	0.2		0.1	0.1	0.0
14-4	20.0%	0.2		0.0	0.1	0.0	0.0
13-5	6.5%	0.1		0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
12-6	0.6%	0.0			0.0	0.0		0.0
11-7	0.0%
10-8	0.0%
9-9	0.0%

Total	0.7%	0.7		0.3	0.2	0.1	0.0	0.0	0.0

NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf Record	Record Chance		Tourney Bid	Auto	At-Large	Avg Seed		1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	No Bid		At-Large if not Auto
18-0	0.0%		33.3%	33.3%		12.0													0.0					0.0
17-1	0.0%		40.3%	40.3%		13.4														0.0	0.0			0.0
16-2	0.1%		36.8%	35.2%	1.6%	13.3												0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0		0.1		2.5%
15-3	0.4%		31.1%	31.1%		14.2													0.0	0.0	0.1	0.0	0.0	0.3
14-4	0.8%		17.3%	17.3%		14.6													0.0	0.0	0.0	0.1	0.0	0.7
13-5	1.5%		9.8%	9.8%		14.8														0.0	0.1	0.1	0.0	1.3
12-6	2.4%		6.4%	6.4%		15.0														0.0	0.0	0.1	0.0	2.2
11-7	3.6%		3.6%	3.6%		15.4															0.0	0.1	0.1	3.4
10-8	4.9%		1.8%	1.8%		15.7																0.0	0.1	4.8
9-9	6.5%		0.8%	0.8%		15.9																0.0	0.0	6.5
8-10	8.5%		0.2%	0.2%		15.9																0.0	0.0	8.5
7-11	10.5%		0.1%	0.1%		16.0																	0.0	10.5
6-12	12.1%																							12.1
5-13	13.1%																							13.1
4-14	12.3%																							12.3
3-15	10.8%																							10.8
2-16	7.8%																							7.8
1-17	3.9%																							3.9
0-18	0.8%																							0.8

Total	100%		0.9%	0.9%	0.0%	14.9												0.0	0.0	0.1	0.2	0.3	0.3	99.1		0.0%

Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

	Chance	Tourney Bid	Avg Seed	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16
Lose Out	0.2%