Preseason Rankings
UTEP
Conference USA
2021-22
Overall
Predictive Rating+0.3#163
Expected Predictive Rating+0.0#1
Pace67.8#216
Improvement--

Offense
Total Offense-1.4#226
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebound--
Layup/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--

Defense
Total Defense+1.7#125
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebounds--
Layups/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.1% 0.4% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.3% 1.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 5.2% 11.2% 3.4%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 1.1% 3.3% 0.4%
Average Seed 11.9 11.2 12.7
.500 or above 49.8% 76.8% 41.4%
.500 or above in Conference 50.8% 70.0% 44.8%
Conference Champion 4.8% 10.1% 3.2%
Last Place in Conference 7.2% 2.6% 8.6%
First Four0.5% 1.4% 0.3%
First Round4.9% 10.4% 3.3%
Second Round1.2% 3.3% 0.5%
Sweet Sixteen0.4% 1.1% 0.1%
Elite Eight0.1% 0.3% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: New Mexico St. (Away) - 23.7% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 3
Quad 21 - 41 - 6
Quad 35 - 66 - 12
Quad 48 - 214 - 14


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 13, 2021 102   @ New Mexico St. L 62-70 24%    
  Nov 19, 2021 137   @ Pacific L 65-70 33%    
  Nov 22, 2021 148   UC Riverside W 68-66 56%    
  Nov 24, 2021 304   Florida A&M W 73-62 83%    
  Dec 03, 2021 102   New Mexico St. L 65-67 44%    
  Dec 07, 2021 4   @ Kansas L 60-80 5%    
  Dec 12, 2021 240   @ New Mexico W 69-67 55%    
  Dec 16, 2021 331   McNeese St. W 78-64 88%    
  Dec 21, 2021 339   NC Central W 75-59 90%    
  Dec 30, 2021 74   @ UAB L 63-73 20%    
  Jan 01, 2022 267   @ Middle Tennessee W 72-69 60%    
  Jan 06, 2022 93   Louisiana Tech L 69-71 42%    
  Jan 08, 2022 195   Southern Miss W 70-65 65%    
  Jan 13, 2022 178   @ Charlotte L 62-64 43%    
  Jan 15, 2022 131   @ Old Dominion L 65-70 34%    
  Jan 20, 2022 207   Texas San Antonio W 77-72 67%    
  Jan 23, 2022 207   @ Texas San Antonio L 74-75 48%    
  Jan 27, 2022 159   Florida Atlantic W 70-67 59%    
  Jan 29, 2022 273   Florida International W 76-67 77%    
  Feb 03, 2022 123   @ North Texas L 60-66 33%    
  Feb 05, 2022 173   @ Rice L 72-75 41%    
  Feb 13, 2022 118   Marshall L 75-76 49%    
  Feb 17, 2022 93   @ Louisiana Tech L 66-74 25%    
  Feb 19, 2022 195   @ Southern Miss L 67-68 47%    
  Feb 26, 2022 74   UAB L 66-70 37%    
  Mar 03, 2022 173   Rice W 75-72 61%    
  Mar 05, 2022 123   North Texas W 64-63 51%    
Projected Record 13 - 14 9 - 9




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Conference USA Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.1 0.4 1.1 1.4 1.1 0.6 0.2 4.8 1st
2nd 0.0 0.1 0.7 1.8 2.1 0.9 0.2 0.0 6.0 2nd
3rd 0.1 1.0 2.6 2.5 0.8 0.1 0.0 7.1 3rd
4th 0.0 0.9 3.0 2.7 0.9 0.1 7.6 4th
5th 0.0 0.6 3.0 3.3 1.0 0.1 7.9 5th
6th 0.0 0.4 2.6 3.9 1.2 0.1 8.3 6th
7th 0.0 0.2 2.0 4.2 1.9 0.1 8.5 7th
8th 0.1 1.4 4.3 2.5 0.3 0.0 8.6 8th
9th 0.1 1.1 3.7 3.1 0.6 0.0 8.6 9th
10th 0.0 0.8 3.1 3.3 0.8 0.0 8.2 10th
11th 0.0 0.7 2.7 3.2 1.1 0.1 7.8 11th
12th 0.0 0.7 2.2 2.6 1.1 0.1 0.0 6.8 12th
13th 0.1 0.9 1.9 2.1 0.8 0.1 0.0 5.9 13th
14th 0.3 0.9 1.3 1.1 0.4 0.1 4.1 14th
Total 0.3 1.0 2.2 3.8 5.4 7.1 8.8 9.9 10.7 10.4 10.1 8.7 7.2 5.7 4.0 2.5 1.4 0.6 0.2 Total



Conference USA Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.2    0.2
17-1 96.1% 0.6    0.5 0.1
16-2 83.7% 1.1    0.8 0.3 0.0
15-3 56.8% 1.4    0.7 0.6 0.1 0.0
14-4 26.5% 1.1    0.3 0.5 0.2 0.1 0.0
13-5 7.1% 0.4    0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0
12-6 0.7% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 4.8% 4.8 2.6 1.5 0.5 0.1 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.2% 91.8% 50.7% 41.0% 6.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 83.3%
17-1 0.6% 77.4% 45.7% 31.7% 8.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 58.4%
16-2 1.4% 49.0% 27.8% 21.2% 10.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.7 29.3%
15-3 2.5% 33.6% 24.1% 9.5% 11.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.0 0.0 1.7 12.5%
14-4 4.0% 20.2% 16.6% 3.6% 12.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0 3.2 4.3%
13-5 5.7% 12.5% 11.5% 1.0% 12.7 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.1 0.0 5.0 1.2%
12-6 7.2% 7.7% 7.5% 0.2% 13.3 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 6.7 0.2%
11-7 8.7% 5.0% 4.9% 0.1% 13.6 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.0 8.3 0.1%
10-8 10.1% 2.9% 2.8% 0.0% 13.9 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 9.8 0.0%
9-9 10.4% 1.5% 1.5% 14.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 10.3
8-10 10.7% 0.7% 0.7% 14.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 10.6
7-11 9.9% 0.4% 0.4% 15.5 0.0 0.0 9.9
6-12 8.8% 0.3% 0.3% 15.8 0.0 0.0 8.8
5-13 7.1% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 7.1
4-14 5.4% 5.4
3-15 3.8% 3.8
2-16 2.2% 2.2
1-17 1.0% 1.0
0-18 0.3% 0.3
Total 100% 5.2% 4.2% 1.0% 11.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.6 1.3 1.2 0.7 0.3 0.1 94.8 1.1%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.0% 100.0% 3.3 33.3 33.3 33.3
Lose Out 0.0%