Preseason Rankings
Western Kentucky
Conference USA
2021-22
Overall
Predictive Rating+5.4#100
Expected Predictive Rating+0.0#1
Pace68.1#211
Improvement--

Offense
Total Offense+2.7#100
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebound--
Layup/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--

Defense
Total Defense+2.6#101
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebounds--
Layups/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.3% 0.3% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 1.1% 1.1% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 2.3% 2.3% 0.4%
NCAA Tourney Bid 18.9% 19.1% 4.2%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 5.2% 5.2% 0.0%
Average Seed 10.7 10.7 12.0
.500 or above 82.6% 83.1% 36.1%
.500 or above in Conference 82.9% 83.2% 49.9%
Conference Champion 21.2% 21.4% 4.3%
Last Place in Conference 1.3% 1.2% 9.5%
First Four1.8% 1.8% 0.0%
First Round18.1% 18.3% 4.2%
Second Round6.7% 6.8% 0.4%
Sweet Sixteen2.5% 2.5% 0.2%
Elite Eight0.8% 0.9% 0.0%
Final Four0.3% 0.3% 0.0%
Championship Game0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Alabama St. (Home) - 99.0% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 11 - 3
Quad 22 - 32 - 5
Quad 36 - 49 - 9
Quad 411 - 119 - 11


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 09, 2021 351   Alabama St. W 83-58 99%    
  Nov 12, 2021 106   Minnesota W 74-73 52%    
  Nov 19, 2021 11   @ Memphis L 66-79 13%    
  Nov 24, 2021 340   Alabama A&M W 77-56 96%    
  Nov 27, 2021 349   Tennessee Martin W 84-60 98%    
  Dec 04, 2021 180   Eastern Kentucky W 84-75 77%    
  Dec 08, 2021 83   Buffalo W 79-77 56%    
  Dec 11, 2021 66   Mississippi L 65-68 40%    
  Dec 18, 2021 27   Louisville L 67-71 36%    
  Dec 22, 2021 285   @ Austin Peay W 76-67 77%    
  Dec 30, 2021 195   @ Southern Miss W 71-67 63%    
  Jan 01, 2022 93   @ Louisiana Tech L 71-74 39%    
  Jan 08, 2022 273   Florida International W 81-67 87%    
  Jan 13, 2022 173   Rice W 79-71 75%    
  Jan 15, 2022 123   North Texas W 67-62 67%    
  Jan 20, 2022 159   @ Florida Atlantic W 71-69 56%    
  Jan 22, 2022 273   @ Florida International W 78-70 75%    
  Jan 27, 2022 74   UAB W 70-69 53%    
  Jan 29, 2022 267   Middle Tennessee W 79-65 87%    
  Feb 03, 2022 178   @ Charlotte W 66-63 59%    
  Feb 05, 2022 131   @ Old Dominion L 69-70 50%    
  Feb 10, 2022 159   Florida Atlantic W 74-66 73%    
  Feb 13, 2022 207   @ Texas San Antonio W 79-75 64%    
  Feb 17, 2022 178   Charlotte W 69-60 76%    
  Feb 19, 2022 131   Old Dominion W 72-66 68%    
  Feb 26, 2022 267   @ Middle Tennessee W 76-68 74%    
  Mar 02, 2022 118   @ Marshall L 77-78 46%    
  Mar 05, 2022 118   Marshall W 80-75 65%    
Projected Record 18 - 10 12 - 6




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Conference USA Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.1 0.9 3.0 5.5 6.0 4.2 1.5 21.2 1st
2nd 0.0 0.1 1.2 4.1 5.5 3.5 1.1 0.1 15.7 2nd
3rd 0.1 1.2 4.1 4.8 2.2 0.3 0.0 12.6 3rd
4th 0.0 0.8 3.8 4.3 1.6 0.2 0.0 10.7 4th
5th 0.0 0.4 2.9 3.7 1.4 0.1 0.0 8.6 5th
6th 0.0 0.2 1.9 3.5 1.5 0.2 7.3 6th
7th 0.0 0.1 1.1 3.0 1.6 0.2 0.0 6.0 7th
8th 0.0 0.6 2.4 1.6 0.2 0.0 4.8 8th
9th 0.0 0.3 1.6 1.7 0.3 0.0 3.9 9th
10th 0.0 0.2 1.0 1.5 0.4 0.0 3.1 10th
11th 0.0 0.1 0.7 1.2 0.5 0.1 2.6 11th
12th 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.8 0.4 0.1 0.0 1.7 12th
13th 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.5 0.3 0.1 1.2 13th
14th 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.6 14th
Total 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.6 1.1 2.0 2.9 4.3 5.9 7.3 9.1 10.6 11.2 11.4 10.8 9.4 7.1 4.3 1.5 Total



Conference USA Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 1.5    1.5
17-1 97.7% 4.2    3.9 0.4
16-2 84.7% 6.0    4.4 1.5 0.1
15-3 59.0% 5.5    2.9 2.2 0.4 0.0
14-4 27.4% 3.0    1.0 1.3 0.6 0.1 0.0
13-5 7.4% 0.9    0.1 0.3 0.3 0.1 0.0
12-6 0.8% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 21.2% 21.2 13.8 5.7 1.4 0.3 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 1.5% 89.6% 56.4% 33.1% 5.5 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.2 76.0%
17-1 4.3% 75.8% 49.5% 26.3% 8.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.3 0.4 0.3 0.1 0.0 1.1 52.1%
16-2 7.1% 55.3% 36.1% 19.2% 10.3 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.4 0.5 0.8 1.1 0.3 0.0 0.0 3.2 30.0%
15-3 9.4% 38.1% 28.6% 9.5% 11.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.7 1.3 0.7 0.1 0.0 5.8 13.4%
14-4 10.8% 24.6% 21.4% 3.3% 12.2 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 1.0 0.8 0.3 0.0 0.0 8.2 4.1%
13-5 11.4% 15.7% 14.6% 1.0% 12.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.6 0.6 0.3 0.1 0.0 9.6 1.2%
12-6 11.2% 9.7% 9.4% 0.2% 13.4 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.3 0.1 0.0 10.2 0.3%
11-7 10.6% 6.4% 6.3% 0.1% 13.6 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 9.9 0.1%
10-8 9.1% 3.5% 3.5% 14.1 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 8.8
9-9 7.3% 1.7% 1.7% 14.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 7.2
8-10 5.9% 1.4% 1.4% 14.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 5.8
7-11 4.3% 0.4% 0.4% 15.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 4.3
6-12 2.9% 0.4% 0.4% 15.8 0.0 0.0 2.9
5-13 2.0% 2.0
4-14 1.1% 1.1
3-15 0.6% 0.6
2-16 0.2% 0.2
1-17 0.1% 0.1
0-18 0.0% 0.0
Total 100% 18.9% 14.5% 4.4% 10.7 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.5 0.6 0.6 0.7 0.7 1.1 1.4 2.6 4.7 3.3 1.5 0.6 0.1 81.1 5.2%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.1% 100.0% 2.4 26.5 33.2 23.7 9.0 7.7
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.0% 100.0% 4.0 12.0 21.4 10.3 29.1 10.3 6.0 5.1 6.0
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.0% 100.0% 3.7 6.3 7.4 36.8 22.1 13.7 13.7