IN CC Stats - NCAA Basketball

Preseason Rankings
Winthrop
Big South
2021-22

Overall
Predictive Rating	+1.8	#143
Expected Predictive Rating	+0.0	#1

Pace	80.5	#11
Improvement	-	-

Offense
Total Offense	+1.0	#144

First Shot	-	-
After Offensive Rebound	-	-

Layup/Dunks	-	-
2 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
3 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
Freethrows	-	-

Improvement	-	-

Defense
Total Defense	+0.8	#151

First Shot	-	-
After Offensive Rebounds	-	-

Layups/Dunks	-	-
2 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
3 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
Freethrows	-	-

Improvement	-	-

	Now	Win Next	Lose Next
#1 Overall Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
#1 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Top 2 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Top 4 Seed	0.1%	0.2%	0.0%
Top 6 Seed	0.4%	0.6%	0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid	32.3%	37.4%	22.8%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier	0.4%	0.6%	0.0%
Average Seed	14.0	13.7	14.8

.500 or above	82.2%	90.3%	67.3%
.500 or above in Conference	94.2%	96.8%	89.5%
Conference Champion	44.9%	51.8%	32.2%
Last Place in Conference	0.4%	0.2%	0.8%

First Four	3.1%	2.3%	4.6%
First Round	30.9%	36.3%	20.8%
Second Round	4.3%	5.7%	1.5%
Sweet Sixteen	1.2%	1.7%	0.3%
Elite Eight	0.3%	0.4%	0.1%
Final Four	0.1%	0.1%	0.0%
Championship Game	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
National Champion	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%

Next Game: Mercer (Home) - 65.0% chance of victory

Projected Seeding

Projected Record by Quad
Quad	Projected	Projected Cumulative
Quad 1a	0 - 1	0 - 1
Quad 1b	0 - 1	0 - 2
Quad 2	1 - 2	1 - 3
Quad 3	3 - 3	4 - 7
Quad 4	14 - 3	18 - 10

Date	Opponent		Result/Prediction			Record	Conf		Rating	Offense	Defense
Nov 13, 2021	155	Mercer	W	80-76	65%
Nov 16, 2021	267	@ Middle Tennessee	W	81-76	66%
Nov 20, 2021	92	@ Vanderbilt	L	75-82	27%
Nov 22, 2021	69	@ Washington St.	L	71-80	21%
Nov 27, 2021	95	@ Washington	L	77-84	29%
Dec 01, 2021	213	Hartford	W	78-71	73%
Dec 04, 2021	190	@ Coastal Carolina	L	81-82	50%
Dec 07, 2021	109	Furman	W	78-77	51%
Dec 15, 2021	217	@ Elon	W	76-74	55%
Dec 20, 2021	56	Mississippi St.	L	71-78	27%
Jan 05, 2022	299	@ High Point	W	78-72	69%
Jan 08, 2022	200	Campbell	W	76-69	71%
Jan 12, 2022	252	UNC Asheville	W	85-75	79%
Jan 15, 2022	335	@ Charleston Southern	W	84-74	79%
Jan 19, 2022	319	@ Presbyterian	W	77-69	73%
Jan 22, 2022	225	Gardner-Webb	W	80-72	74%
Jan 26, 2022	343	@ South Carolina Upstate	W	84-72	83%
Jan 29, 2022	249	@ Longwood	W	74-70	62%
Feb 02, 2022	286	N.C. A&T	W	87-75	82%
Feb 05, 2022	329	@ Hampton	W	86-77	77%
Feb 09, 2022	264	Radford	W	77-67	79%
Feb 12, 2022	319	Presbyterian	W	80-66	86%
Feb 16, 2022	225	@ Gardner-Webb	W	77-75	57%
Feb 19, 2022	252	@ UNC Asheville	W	82-78	62%
Feb 23, 2022	343	South Carolina Upstate	W	87-69	92%
Feb 26, 2022	335	Charleston Southern	W	87-71	90%
Projected Record						17 - 9	12 - 4

Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.

Projected Big South Finish

	0-16	1-15	2-14	3-13	4-12	5-11	6-10	7-9	8-8	9-7	10-6	11-5	12-4	13-3	14-2	15-1	16-0		Total
1st											0.0	0.6	3.3	8.1	13.0	12.9	7.0		44.9	1st
2nd										0.0	0.5	3.4	6.9	6.4	2.3	0.2			19.7	2nd
3rd									0.0	0.4	2.7	5.0	3.2	0.6	0.0				11.8	3rd
4th								0.0	0.2	1.8	3.7	1.9	0.2	0.0					7.9	4th
5th							0.0	0.1	0.9	2.6	1.6	0.2							5.3	5th
6th							0.0	0.5	1.8	1.3	0.2	0.0							3.9	6th
7th						0.0	0.2	1.2	1.0	0.1									2.5	7th
8th					0.0	0.1	0.7	0.7	0.2										1.7	8th
9th				0.0	0.1	0.3	0.5	0.1	0.0										1.1	9th
10th				0.0	0.2	0.3	0.1	0.0											0.7	10th
11th		0.0	0.0	0.1	0.2	0.1	0.0												0.3	11th
12th	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.1	0.0	0.0													0.2	12th

Total	0.0	0.0	0.1	0.2	0.4	0.9	1.6	2.6	4.2	6.2	8.7	11.0	13.6	15.1	15.3	13.2	7.0			Total

Big South Regular Season Championship

Record	Champion	Total		Outright	2-Way	3-Way	4-Way	5-Way	6-Way	7-Way	8-Way
16-0	100.0%	7.0		7.0
15-1	98.4%	12.9		11.7	1.2
14-2	84.7%	13.0		9.2	3.5	0.2	0.0
13-3	53.8%	8.1		4.0	3.3	0.8	0.1
12-4	23.9%	3.3		0.9	1.5	0.8	0.2	0.0
11-5	5.0%	0.6		0.1	0.2	0.2	0.1	0.0
10-6	0.2%	0.0			0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
9-7	0.0%
8-8	0.0%

Total	44.9%	44.9		32.9	9.7	2.0	0.3	0.0

NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf Record	Record Chance		Tourney Bid	Auto	At-Large	Avg Seed		1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	No Bid		At-Large if not Auto
16-0	7.0%		69.7%	67.7%	1.9%	11.8		0.0	0.0	0.0	0.1	0.1	0.1	0.1	0.1	0.2	0.2	0.4	1.0	1.4	0.9	0.3	0.0	2.1		6.0%
15-1	13.2%		58.1%	57.5%	0.6%	13.4					0.0		0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.1	0.3	1.2	2.3	2.3	1.2	0.2	5.5		1.5%
14-2	15.3%		45.1%	44.9%	0.1%	14.1											0.0	0.1	0.4	1.5	2.3	2.0	0.6	8.4		0.2%
13-3	15.1%		34.8%	34.8%		14.7												0.0	0.1	0.6	1.3	2.0	1.2	9.8
12-4	13.6%		26.2%	26.2%		15.2													0.0	0.1	0.6	1.4	1.5	10.0
11-5	11.0%		18.5%	18.5%		15.5													0.0	0.0	0.2	0.6	1.3	9.0
10-6	8.7%		12.8%	12.8%		15.7															0.0	0.2	0.8	7.6
9-7	6.2%		9.0%	9.0%		15.9														0.0	0.0	0.0	0.5	5.6
8-8	4.2%		5.3%	5.3%		16.0																0.0	0.2	3.9
7-9	2.6%		3.0%	3.0%		16.0																	0.1	2.5
6-10	1.6%		1.1%	1.1%		16.0																	0.0	1.6
5-11	0.9%		1.3%	1.3%		16.0																	0.0	0.9
4-12	0.4%																							0.4
3-13	0.2%																							0.2
2-14	0.1%																							0.1
1-15	0.0%																							0.0
0-16	0.0%																							0.0

Total	100%		32.3%	32.1%	0.2%	14.0		0.0	0.0	0.0	0.1	0.1	0.1	0.1	0.1	0.2	0.3	0.7	2.7	6.0	7.6	7.7	6.4	67.7		0.4%

Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

	Chance	Tourney Bid	Avg Seed	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16
Win Out	0.2%	100.0%	5.2			18.2	22.6	22.6	19.4	6.9	2.4	2.1	3.4	1.2		1.2
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship	0.0%	76.9%	7.2					15.4	23.1	7.7	7.7	15.4		7.7
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final	0.0%	100.0%	8.5					14.6	17.1			19.5	34.1	14.6