Pre-tourney Rankings
Atlantic 10
2024-25


Rank Team Tourney Chance Exp Seed Record Conf Record Projected Record Projected Conf Record Predictive Rating Offense Defense Pace EPR Conference EPR
36 Virginia Commonwealth 100.0%   11   27 - 6 15 - 3 27 - 6 15 - 3 +13.6      +6.7 44 +6.9 35 65.6 247 +11.3 52 +12.2 2
77 Dayton 2.2%   21 - 10 12 - 6 21 - 10 12 - 6 +7.2      +5.4 58 +1.8 118 65.2 262 +9.0 65 +7.5 3
80 Saint Joseph's 0.0%   22 - 12 12 - 7 22 - 12 12 - 7 +7.0      +3.1 98 +3.9 76 69.5 132 +5.2 97 +5.5 6
82 George Mason 0.7%   25 - 8 15 - 3 25 - 8 15 - 3 +6.7      -0.7 199 +7.4 24 62.9 316 +9.6 61 +12.3 1
102 Saint Louis 0.0%   17 - 14 11 - 7 17 - 14 11 - 7 +4.2      +2.3 106 +1.9 116 67.9 183 +3.7 114 +6.5 5
104 Loyola Chicago 0.0%   21 - 11 12 - 6 21 - 11 12 - 6 +4.1      +0.7 154 +3.4 85 67.4 200 +5.1 99 +7.4 4
112 St. Bonaventure 0.0%   21 - 11 9 - 9 21 - 11 9 - 9 +3.6      -0.4 191 +4.0 71 62.5 325 +5.7 91 +2.6 7
117 George Washington 0.0%   20 - 12 9 - 9 20 - 12 9 - 9 +3.0      +0.9 148 +2.0 111 67.1 208 +2.5 130 +2.0 8
127 Duquesne 0.0%   12 - 19 8 - 10 12 - 19 8 - 10 +2.2      -0.2 182 +2.3 101 63.8 294 -1.7 182 +1.6 9
145 Davidson 0.0%   16 - 16 6 - 12 16 - 16 6 - 12 +0.9      +1.8 124 -0.9 198 65.2 259 +0.3 161 -2.1 12
154 Rhode Island 0.0%   17 - 13 7 - 11 17 - 13 7 - 11 +0.4      +1.0 146 -0.5 188 74.3 43 +1.4 140 -0.7 11
198 Massachusetts 0.0%   11 - 20 7 - 11 11 - 20 7 - 11 -2.1      -2.6 241 +0.6 157 74.3 45 -3.6 225 -0.4 10
212 La Salle 0.0%   13 - 19 5 - 14 13 - 19 5 - 14 -2.9      -2.1 226 -0.8 195 70.8 103 -1.4 180 -3.8 14
225 Richmond 0.0%   8 - 22 5 - 13 8 - 22 5 - 13 -3.5      -2.3 232 -1.2 209 61.5 343 -5.4 257 -2.4 13
227 Fordham 0.0%   11 - 21 3 - 15 11 - 21 3 - 15 -3.5      -0.4 189 -3.1 269 72.8 61 -3.4 220 -6.8 15





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Conference Finish

Team Avg
Place		 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th 11th 12th 13th 14th 15th
Virginia Commonwealth 1.0 100.0
Dayton 3.0 100.0
Saint Joseph's 3.0 100.0
George Mason 1.0 100.0
Saint Louis 6.0 100.0
Loyola Chicago 3.0 100.0
St. Bonaventure 7.0 100.0
George Washington 7.0 100.0
Duquesne 9.0 100.0
Davidson 12.0 100.0
Rhode Island 10.0 100.0
Massachusetts 10.0 100.0
La Salle 13.0 100.0
Richmond 13.0 100.0
Fordham 15.0 100.0




Projected Conference Wins

Team Avg Record 0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0
Virginia Commonwealth 15 - 3 100.0
Dayton 12 - 6 100.0
Saint Joseph's 12 - 6 100.0
George Mason 15 - 3 100.0
Saint Louis 11 - 7 100.0
Loyola Chicago 12 - 6 100.0
St. Bonaventure 9 - 9 100.0
George Washington 9 - 9 100.0
Duquesne 8 - 10 100.0
Davidson 6 - 12 100.0
Rhode Island 7 - 11 100.0
Massachusetts 7 - 11 100.0
La Salle 5 - 13 100.0
Richmond 5 - 13 100.0
Fordham 3 - 15 100.0




Projected Conference Champion

Team Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
Virginia Commonwealth 100.0% 100.0
Dayton
Saint Joseph's
George Mason 100.0% 100.0
Saint Louis
Loyola Chicago
St. Bonaventure
George Washington
Duquesne
Davidson
Rhode Island
Massachusetts
La Salle
Richmond
Fordham


NCAA Tournament Selection

TeamTourney BidAutoAt-LargeExp Seed 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
Virginia Commonwealth 100.0% 100.0% 0.0% 11   0.0 0.7 7.0 27.8 54.7 9.8
Dayton 2.2% 0.0% 2.2% 0.6 1.6 97.8 2.2%
Saint Joseph's 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0 100.0 0.0%
George Mason 0.7% 0.0% 0.7% 0.2 0.5 99.3 0.7%
Saint Louis 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0 0.0%
Loyola Chicago 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0 0.0%
St. Bonaventure 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0 0.0%
George Washington 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0 0.0%
Duquesne 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0 0.0%
Davidson 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0 0.0%
Rhode Island 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0 0.0%
Massachusetts 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0 0.0%
La Salle 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0 0.0%
Richmond 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0 0.0%
Fordham 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0 0.0%



NCAA Tournament Simulation

TeamTourney
Bid		First
Four		First
Round		Second
Round		Sweet
Sixteen		Elite
Eight		Final
Four		Final
Game		Champion
Virginia Commonwealth 100.0% 0.0% 100.0% 42.0% 13.8% 4.0% 0.9% 0.2% 0.1%
Dayton 2.2% 2.2% 0.7% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Saint Joseph's 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
George Mason 0.7% 0.7% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Saint Louis 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Loyola Chicago 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
St. Bonaventure 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
George Washington 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Duquesne 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Davidson 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Rhode Island 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Massachusetts 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
La Salle 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Richmond 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Fordham 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%



Number of Teams
One or MoreAvg # 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
Tourney Bid 100.0% 1.0 97.1 2.9 0.0
1st Round 100.0% 1.0 99.1 0.9
2nd Round 42.1% 0.4 57.9 42.1 0.1
Sweet Sixteen 13.8% 0.1 86.2 13.8 0.0
Elite Eight 4.0% 0.0 96.0 4.0
Final Four 0.9% 0.0 99.1 0.9
Final Game 0.2% 0.0 99.8 0.2
Champion 0.1% 0.0 99.9 0.1