BYU
Men - Women
2011 - 2012 - 2013
Switch to All-time Team Page
RankNameGradeRating
15  Jared Ward JR 31:03
47  Tylor Thatcher JR 31:29
110  Conner Peloquin JR 31:55
135  Steve Flint SO 32:01
141  Rex Shields SR 32:02
151  Jason Witt JR 32:04
186  Thomas Gruenewald JR 32:12
218  Taylor Farnsworth SO 32:16
260  Spencer Gardner SO 32:22
264  Curtis Carr JR 32:22
328  Erik Harris FR 32:32
489  James Tracy SR 32:53
569  Danny Carney FR 33:03
766  Brian Palmer SR 33:24
962  Josh Adams SR 33:43
1,114  Jared Rohatinsky SR 33:56
National Rank #9 of 311
Mountain Region Rank #3 of 18
Chance of Advancing to Nationals 99.5%
Most Likely Finish 7th at Nationals


National Champion 0.6%
Top 5 at Nationals 26.9%
Top 10 at Nationals 68.6%
Top 20 at Nationals 96.1%


Regional Champion 11.8%
Top 5 in Regional 100.0%
Top 10 in Regional 100.0%
Top 20 in Regional 100.0%


Race Performance Ratings


Times listed are adjusted ratings based on performance compared to other runners in race.


RaceDateTeam Rating Jared Ward Tylor Thatcher Conner Peloquin Steve Flint Rex Shields Jason Witt Thomas Gruenewald Taylor Farnsworth Spencer Gardner Curtis Carr Erik Harris
Oregon Dellinger Invitational 09/29 493 31:34 31:53 31:53 32:00 32:01 32:08 32:16 32:08 32:21 32:08 32:38
Pre-Nationals Meet (Black) 10/13 32:44
Pre-Nationals Meet (Red) 10/13 401 31:08 31:42 31:54 31:57 31:44 32:17 33:18
WCC Championships 10/27 504 31:32 31:40 32:11 32:12 31:53 32:52 32:26 32:21
Mountain Region Championships 11/09 313 31:08 31:19 31:50 31:34 31:46 32:05 32:07
NCAA Championship 11/17 344 30:43 31:08 31:49 32:01 32:45 34:14 31:51





NCAA Tournament Simulation


Based on results of 5,000 simulations of the NCAA Tournament. Numbers in tables represent percentage of times each outcome occured during simulation.



Team Results

Advances to RoundAve FinishAve Score Finishing Place
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31
NCAA Championship 99.5% 9.0 306 0.6 3.7 5.7 7.6 9.3 9.5 10.0 9.2 7.3 5.8 4.9 5.0 4.0 2.9 2.7 2.2 1.7 1.7 1.4 0.9 0.8 0.7 0.5 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.1
Region Championship 100% 2.5 81 11.8 37.2 40.5 10.4 0.0



Individual Results

NCAA ChampionshipAdvances to RoundAve Finish Finishing Place
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25
Jared Ward 100% 17.4 0.0 0.2 1.2 1.9 2.9 4.4 4.1 4.3 4.8 4.4 4.1 4.1 3.7 3.4 2.8 2.8 2.6 2.5 2.4 2.5 2.1 1.7 1.9 1.9
Tylor Thatcher 99.9% 46.6 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.5 0.5 0.6 0.9 1.1 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.4 1.6 1.4
Conner Peloquin 99.5% 102.8 0.0
Steve Flint 99.5% 117.6 0.0
Rex Shields 99.5% 119.5
Jason Witt 99.5% 124.6
Thomas Gruenewald 99.5% 146.2


RegionalAve Finish Finishing Place
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25
Jared Ward 3.6 0.2 12.7 26.1 17.5 11.7 7.6 4.6 3.6 2.9 2.3 1.9 1.6 1.4 1.0 0.6 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.2
Tylor Thatcher 9.2 0.1 1.5 4.6 7.9 8.2 9.5 9.2 7.5 6.8 6.4 4.8 4.5 3.9 3.0 2.9 2.0 1.8 2.0 1.8 1.6 1.1 1.0 1.1 0.8
Conner Peloquin 20.5 0.1 0.3 0.5 0.8 1.4 2.3 3.1 3.6 4.5 4.4 4.9 4.3 4.5 4.5 4.2 4.3 4.5 4.1 3.5 3.3 3.2
Steve Flint 23.8 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.5 0.8 1.2 2.1 2.4 3.0 3.4 3.7 4.2 4.4 4.0 4.1 4.6 4.1 3.6 4.1 4.0
Rex Shields 24.6 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.8 1.1 1.8 2.1 2.7 3.4 3.9 3.5 4.1 3.9 4.0 4.3 3.9 3.6 3.7 3.7
Jason Witt 25.6 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.5 1.0 1.0 1.5 2.2 2.3 3.5 3.3 3.6 3.6 3.7 4.2 4.3 4.3 4.4 3.7
Thomas Gruenewald 29.5 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.9 0.9 1.4 2.0 1.8 2.3 2.9 3.3 3.8 3.7 3.9 4.3




NCAA Championship Selection Detail

Total
Region Finish Chance of Finishing Chance of Advancing Auto At Large Selection No Adv Auto At Large Region Finish
1 2 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13
1 11.8% 100.0% 11.8 11.8 1
2 37.2% 100.0% 37.2 37.2 2
3 40.5% 99.6% 0.4 1.7 2.9 5.4 9.3 8.9 4.8 2.9 1.9 1.0 0.5 0.7 0.2 40.4 3
4 10.4% 97.1% 0.1 0.5 1.2 2.0 2.1 1.7 1.1 0.8 0.4 0.2 0.2 0.3 10.1 4
5 0.0% 100.0% 0.0 0.0 5
6 6
7 7
8 8
9 9
10 10
11 11
12 12
13 13
14 14
15 15
16 16
17 17
18 18
Total 100% 99.5% 11.8 37.2 0.4 1.7 2.9 5.9 10.5 10.9 6.9 4.6 3.0 1.7 0.9 0.9 0.2 0.5 49.0 50.5




Points



At large teams are selected based on the number of wins (points) against teams already in the championships. As a result, advancement is predicated on accumulating enough points before the last at-large selection. Accordingly, the points below are the total number of wins against automatic qualifiers or teams selected in the at-large process before the last selection. Minimum, maximum, and average points are number seen in 5,000 simulations of the NCAA Tournament.



Received By BeatingChance ReceivedAverage If >0Average
Florida State 100.0% 1.0 1.0
Tulsa 97.5% 1.0 1.0
Oregon 83.3% 2.0 1.7
Georgetown 80.3% 1.0 0.8
Virginia Tech 59.0% 1.0 0.6
Villanova 34.8% 1.0 0.3
Florida 12.5% 1.0 0.1
Duke 11.7% 1.0 0.1
Washington 7.0% 1.0 0.1
William and Mary 0.9% 1.0 0.0
Louisville 0.3% 1.0 0.0
McNeese State 0.2% 1.0 0.0
Boise State 0.0% 1.0 0.0
Lehigh 0.0% 1.0 0.0
Total 5.7
Minimum 2.0
Maximum 10.0