Colorado
Men - Women
2011 - 2012 - 2013
Switch to All-time Team Page
RankNameGradeRating
16  Jake Hurysz JR 31:05
38  Blake Theroux SO 31:24
49  Aric VanHalen SR 31:29
63  Pierce Murphy FR 31:38
67  Martin Medina SR 31:39
99  Connor Winter FR 31:53
132  Hugh Dowdy JR 31:59
168  Morgan Pearson SO 32:08
249  Matt Biegner SR 32:20
321  Jonny Stevens SR 32:31
432  Jerome Perkins SR 32:46
654  David Kilgore FR 33:12
791  Dillon Shije JR 33:27
1,300  Ryan Savercool SR 34:12
1,578  Jeff Warren JR 34:35
National Rank #2 of 311
Mountain Region Rank #1 of 18
Chance of Advancing to Nationals 100.0%
Most Likely Finish 2nd at Nationals


National Champion 11.5%
Top 5 at Nationals 81.5%
Top 10 at Nationals 96.6%
Top 20 at Nationals 99.9%


Regional Champion 74.8%
Top 5 in Regional 100.0%
Top 10 in Regional 100.0%
Top 20 in Regional 100.0%


Race Performance Ratings


Times listed are adjusted ratings based on performance compared to other runners in race.


RaceDateTeam Rating Jake Hurysz Blake Theroux Aric VanHalen Pierce Murphy Martin Medina Connor Winter Hugh Dowdy Morgan Pearson Matt Biegner Jonny Stevens Jerome Perkins
Rocky Mountain Shootout 09/29 299 30:51 31:25 32:13 31:47 31:25 31:56 31:54 32:24 32:26 32:34
Pre-Nationals Meet (Black) 10/13 32:33 32:14 32:40
Pre-Nationals Meet (Red) 10/13 298 31:04 31:30 31:48 31:44 31:44 31:53 31:31
Santa Clara Bronco Invitational 10/13 1122 33:02
Pac-12 Championships 10/27 237 31:20 31:19 31:27 31:32 31:30 32:00 31:22 31:51 32:19 32:28
Mountain Region Championships 11/09 316 31:15 31:32 31:54 31:39 31:16 32:51 32:08
NCAA Championship 11/17 217 31:06 31:10 31:09 31:23 33:34 31:40 33:03





NCAA Tournament Simulation


Based on results of 5,000 simulations of the NCAA Tournament. Numbers in tables represent percentage of times each outcome occured during simulation.



Team Results

Advances to RoundAve FinishAve Score Finishing Place
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31
NCAA Championship 100% 3.8 192 11.5 30.5 18.9 12.4 8.1 5.5 3.8 2.7 1.7 1.4 0.9 0.6 0.6 0.4 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Region Championship 100% 1.3 52 74.8 18.5 6.1 0.6



Individual Results

NCAA ChampionshipAdvances to RoundAve Finish Finishing Place
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25
Jake Hurysz 100% 18.3 0.0 0.2 0.7 1.6 2.7 3.1 3.6 4.3 4.4 4.3 3.6 4.0 4.0 3.6 3.2 3.2 3.0 2.3 2.2 2.1 2.3 2.1 1.9 1.7
Blake Theroux 100% 40.9 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.6 0.5 0.9 0.9 1.2 1.4 1.4 1.5 1.6 1.6 1.7 1.6 1.5 1.9 2.0
Aric VanHalen 100% 46.2 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.7 0.5 1.1 1.0 1.0 1.6 1.1 1.5 1.4 1.5 1.1
Pierce Murphy 100% 61.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.6 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.5
Martin Medina 100% 66.2 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.6
Connor Winter 100% 95.2 0.0
Hugh Dowdy 100% 110.0


RegionalAve Finish Finishing Place
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25
Jake Hurysz 3.9 0.1 11.3 23.5 17.7 11.9 8.2 5.2 4.4 3.5 3.1 2.0 1.6 1.0 1.3 0.7 0.7 0.5 0.4 0.5 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.1
Blake Theroux 7.8 0.5 2.5 6.9 10.8 11.4 10.9 9.1 7.0 5.2 4.8 4.4 3.5 3.0 2.3 2.2 2.1 1.9 1.2 1.3 1.0 1.2 1.0 0.9 0.5
Aric VanHalen 9.1 0.1 1.3 4.2 6.9 8.5 9.9 9.8 8.3 7.2 5.9 4.9 4.2 3.5 2.8 2.0 2.5 2.2 2.0 1.7 1.4 1.2 1.2 1.2 0.9
Pierce Murphy 12.2 0.0 0.2 0.7 1.9 3.8 5.8 6.8 7.9 8.1 7.2 6.6 5.8 4.9 3.9 3.6 2.9 3.1 2.5 2.5 2.0 2.1 1.6 1.7 1.6
Martin Medina 13.0 0.1 0.5 1.2 2.8 4.9 6.4 7.3 7.6 7.2 6.4 5.9 4.7 4.7 3.5 3.9 2.9 2.9 2.4 2.5 2.2 1.6 1.7 1.5
Connor Winter 19.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.5 1.0 1.8 3.1 3.8 5.1 5.2 5.9 5.7 4.7 4.7 4.1 4.3 4.1 3.2 3.4 3.4 2.9 2.9
Hugh Dowdy 22.4 0.0 0.2 0.5 1.1 2.1 2.9 3.3 4.1 4.7 4.1 5.0 4.1 4.3 3.7 4.1 3.9 4.4 3.7 3.7




NCAA Championship Selection Detail

Total
Region Finish Chance of Finishing Chance of Advancing Auto At Large Selection No Adv Auto At Large Region Finish
1 2 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13
1 74.8% 100.0% 74.8 74.8 1
2 18.5% 100.0% 18.5 18.5 2
3 6.1% 100.0% 0.3 1.2 1.7 1.5 0.9 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 6.1 3
4 0.6% 100.0% 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.6 4
5 5
6 6
7 7
8 8
9 9
10 10
11 11
12 12
13 13
14 14
15 15
16 16
17 17
18 18
Total 100% 100.0% 74.8 18.5 0.3 1.2 1.8 1.6 1.0 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 93.3 6.7




Points



At large teams are selected based on the number of wins (points) against teams already in the championships. As a result, advancement is predicated on accumulating enough points before the last at-large selection. Accordingly, the points below are the total number of wins against automatic qualifiers or teams selected in the at-large process before the last selection. Minimum, maximum, and average points are number seen in 5,000 simulations of the NCAA Tournament.



Received By BeatingChance ReceivedAverage If >0Average
Florida State 100.0% 1.0 1.0
Stanford 99.1% 1.0 1.0
BYU 97.8% 1.0 1.0
Tulsa 97.5% 1.0 1.0
UCLA 84.5% 1.0 0.8
Oregon 83.3% 2.0 1.7
Georgetown 80.3% 1.0 0.8
Virginia Tech 59.0% 1.0 0.6
Arizona State 38.4% 1.0 0.4
Villanova 34.8% 1.0 0.3
Florida 12.5% 1.0 0.1
Duke 11.7% 1.0 0.1
Washington 7.0% 1.0 0.1
William and Mary 0.9% 1.0 0.0
Washington St. 0.5% 1.0 0.0
Louisville 0.3% 1.0 0.0
McNeese State 0.2% 1.0 0.0
Boise State 0.0% 1.0 0.0
Lehigh 0.0% 1.0 0.0
Total 8.9
Minimum 4.0
Maximum 13.0