Duke
Men - Women
2011 - 2012 - 2013
Switch to All-time Team Page
RankNameGradeRating
136  Mike Moverman JR 32:01
166  Brian Atkinson JR 32:07
299  Shaun Thompson SO 32:28
344  Dominick Robinson SR 32:34
403  James Kostelnik SR 32:42
533  Christian Britto JR 33:00
575  Lucas Talavan-Becker JR 33:04
629  Phil Fairleigh SO 33:10
945  Joey Elsakr SR 33:41
1,234  Brian Schoepfer SO 34:06
National Rank #42 of 311
Southeast Region Rank #5 of 47
Chance of Advancing to Nationals 18.2%
Most Likely Finish 5th at Regional


National Champion 0.0%
Top 5 at Nationals 0.0%
Top 10 at Nationals 0.0%
Top 20 at Nationals 1.3%


Regional Champion 0.3%
Top 5 in Regional 52.7%
Top 10 in Regional 99.7%
Top 20 in Regional 100.0%


Race Performance Ratings


Times listed are adjusted ratings based on performance compared to other runners in race.


RaceDateTeam Rating Mike Moverman Brian Atkinson Shaun Thompson Dominick Robinson James Kostelnik Christian Britto Lucas Talavan-Becker Phil Fairleigh Joey Elsakr Brian Schoepfer
Pre-Nationals Meet (Black) 10/13 33:47 33:41 33:55
Pre-Nationals Meet (Red) 10/13 646 31:56 32:01 32:03 32:04 32:37 33:28 33:10
ACC Championships 10/27 670 31:36 31:57 32:38 32:40 32:13 32:37 32:52 33:13 33:43 34:20
Southeast Region Championships 11/09 811 32:09 32:43 32:27 32:19 34:02 32:37 32:59
NCAA Championship 11/17 904 32:40 32:12 32:47 33:41 32:42 33:19 33:05





NCAA Tournament Simulation


Based on results of 5,000 simulations of the NCAA Tournament. Numbers in tables represent percentage of times each outcome occured during simulation.



Team Results

Advances to RoundAve FinishAve Score Finishing Place
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31
NCAA Championship 18.2% 27.2 633 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.3 0.5 0.4 0.7 0.7 1.1 1.4 1.4 1.8 2.2 2.8 3.9
Region Championship 100% 5.6 175 0.3 1.8 6.9 15.9 27.8 20.7 14.5 8.0 3.0 0.8 0.2 0.1



Individual Results

NCAA ChampionshipAdvances to RoundAve Finish Finishing Place
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25
Mike Moverman 20.0% 100.8
Brian Atkinson 18.6% 112.0
Shaun Thompson 18.2% 168.9
Dominick Robinson 18.2% 184.4
James Kostelnik 18.2% 196.9
Christian Britto 18.3% 228.6
Lucas Talavan-Becker 18.3% 232.9


RegionalAve Finish Finishing Place
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25
Mike Moverman 18.9 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.8 1.0 1.9 2.7 3.9 4.4 5.6 5.5 5.5 4.6 4.9 5.0 3.9 4.9 3.9 3.7 3.2 2.7 2.3
Brian Atkinson 21.3 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.7 1.3 2.1 2.7 3.8 3.9 5.1 5.1 5.2 4.7 4.5 4.6 4.3 4.2 3.1 3.7 3.1
Shaun Thompson 35.3 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.6 0.8 1.2 1.7 1.9 2.2 2.0 2.6 2.9 3.1
Dominick Robinson 40.6 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.5 0.5 1.1 1.1 1.5 1.6 2.0
James Kostelnik 46.9 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.8
Christian Britto 65.1
Lucas Talavan-Becker 69.8




NCAA Championship Selection Detail

Total
Region Finish Chance of Finishing Chance of Advancing Auto At Large Selection No Adv Auto At Large Region Finish
1 2 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13
1 0.3% 100.0% 0.3 0.3 1
2 1.8% 100.0% 1.8 1.8 2
3 6.9% 64.8% 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.5 0.6 0.4 0.7 0.7 0.6 2.4 4.5 3
4 15.9% 32.7% 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.7 0.8 1.5 10.7 5.2 4
5 27.8% 22.5% 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.6 1.0 0.9 1.1 2.0 21.5 6.2 5
6 20.7% 0.9% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 20.5 0.2 6
7 14.5% 0.3% 0.0 0.0 14.5 0.0 7
8 8.0% 8.0 8
9 3.0% 3.0 9
10 0.8% 0.8 10
11 0.2% 0.2 11
12 0.1% 0.1 12
13 13
14 14
15 15
16 16
17 17
18 18
19 19
20 20
21 21
22 22
23 23
24 24
25 25
26 26
27 27
28 28
29 29
30 30
31 31
32 32
33 33
34 34
35 35
36 36
37 37
38 38
39 39
40 40
41 41
42 42
43 43
44 44
45 45
46 46
47 47
Total 100% 18.2% 0.3 1.8 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.1 0.2 0.5 0.7 1.3 1.9 2.1 2.4 2.5 4.2 81.8 2.1 16.1




Points



At large teams are selected based on the number of wins (points) against teams already in the championships. As a result, advancement is predicated on accumulating enough points before the last at-large selection. Accordingly, the points below are the total number of wins against automatic qualifiers or teams selected in the at-large process before the last selection. Minimum, maximum, and average points are number seen in 5,000 simulations of the NCAA Tournament.



Received By BeatingChance ReceivedAverage If >0Average
Tulsa 97.5% 1.0 1.0
Georgetown 80.3% 1.0 0.8
Virginia Tech 59.0% 1.0 0.6
Villanova 34.8% 1.0 0.3
Florida 12.5% 1.0 0.1
William and Mary 0.9% 1.0 0.0
Louisville 0.3% 1.0 0.0
North Carolina 0.2% 1.0 0.0
McNeese State 0.2% 1.0 0.0
Boise State 0.0% 1.0 0.0
Lehigh 0.0% 1.0 0.0
Total 2.9
Minimum 1.0
Maximum 6.0