Michigan
Men - Women
2011 - 2012 - 2013
Switch to All-time Team Page
RankNameGradeRating
41  Dan Lowry SR 31:24
107  Mark Beams JR 31:54
165  Zach Ornelas SR 32:07
178  Morsi Rayyan JR 32:10
205  Brendon Blacklaws JR 32:15
241  Tony Smoragiewicz FR 32:19
384  August Pappas FR 32:39
555  James Yau SO 33:02
736  Alex Moran FR 33:21
943  Jeffrey Sattler FR 33:41
1,055  Dallas North JR 33:51
1,148  Nicholas Posada FR 33:59
1,231  Nick Kern SO 34:06
1,313  Matt Popielarz JR 34:13
1,603  Trevor Denton FR 34:37
1,802  Justin Krauss FR 34:59
2,230  Scott Dvorak FR 35:34
National Rank #17 of 311
Great Lakes Region Rank #2 of 30
Chance of Advancing to Nationals 99.8%
Most Likely Finish 17th at Nationals


National Champion 0.0%
Top 5 at Nationals 1.7%
Top 10 at Nationals 14.7%
Top 20 at Nationals 63.9%


Regional Champion 7.7%
Top 5 in Regional 99.8%
Top 10 in Regional 100.0%
Top 20 in Regional 100.0%


Race Performance Ratings


Times listed are adjusted ratings based on performance compared to other runners in race.


RaceDateTeam Rating Dan Lowry Mark Beams Zach Ornelas Morsi Rayyan Brendon Blacklaws Tony Smoragiewicz August Pappas James Yau Alex Moran Jeffrey Sattler Dallas North
Notre Dame Invitational (Blue) 09/28 1064 32:21 33:10 33:21 33:41 33:51
Wisconsin adidas Invitational 10/12 499 31:15 31:47 31:54 32:04 32:17 32:45
Big Ten Championships 10/28 523 31:19 32:02 32:05 32:00 32:16 32:04 32:40 32:58
Great Lakes Region Championships 11/09 529 31:16 31:55 32:17 32:09 31:58 32:58
NCAA Championship 11/17 676 32:10 31:55 32:18 32:44 32:20 32:13





NCAA Tournament Simulation


Based on results of 5,000 simulations of the NCAA Tournament. Numbers in tables represent percentage of times each outcome occured during simulation.



Team Results

Advances to RoundAve FinishAve Score Finishing Place
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31
NCAA Championship 99.8% 17.9 453 0.1 0.3 0.5 0.8 1.6 2.1 2.5 2.8 4.0 3.6 4.4 4.6 5.3 5.1 5.2 5.5 5.0 5.2 5.3 4.4 4.7 4.3 3.8 4.2 3.3 3.1 2.9 2.3 2.0 1.1
Region Championship 100% 2.4 80 7.7 56.4 27.7 7.3 0.8 0.1 0.0



Individual Results

NCAA ChampionshipAdvances to RoundAve Finish Finishing Place
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25
Dan Lowry 100.0% 40.5 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.5 0.6 0.8 1.1 0.9 1.1 1.1 1.6 1.3 1.7 1.8 1.6 1.8 2.2 1.9 1.9
Mark Beams 99.9% 100.8 0.0
Zach Ornelas 99.8% 133.1
Morsi Rayyan 99.8% 139.7
Brendon Blacklaws 99.8% 153.1
Tony Smoragiewicz 99.8% 163.9
August Pappas 99.8% 209.1


RegionalAve Finish Finishing Place
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25
Dan Lowry 5.6 1.2 3.3 7.2 12.3 15.8 17.2 13.7 7.8 6.1 3.5 2.5 2.0 1.2 1.2 0.8 0.6 0.6 0.4 0.5 0.2 0.3 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.2
Mark Beams 11.5 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.7 2.9 5.3 9.3 10.0 10.0 8.3 6.6 5.7 4.4 3.4 3.5 2.8 2.7 2.0 2.1 1.6 1.9 1.1 1.4 1.2
Zach Ornelas 16.5 0.1 0.2 1.0 2.3 4.4 5.8 6.6 6.9 5.9 5.5 4.7 4.3 4.4 3.5 3.3 3.0 2.5 2.3 2.4 2.1 2.0
Morsi Rayyan 18.5 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.3 2.5 4.0 5.3 5.7 6.0 5.7 5.5 4.7 3.8 3.3 3.5 3.5 2.7 2.4 2.7 2.1 2.1
Brendon Blacklaws 22.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.0 2.4 3.2 3.8 4.6 4.5 4.6 4.7 3.8 3.7 3.9 3.2 3.2 2.7 2.8 2.5 2.4
Tony Smoragiewicz 24.4 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.8 1.8 3.2 3.4 3.7 4.1 4.1 3.9 4.5 3.1 3.3 3.4 3.4 3.0 2.9 2.6
August Pappas 41.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.6 0.7 1.0 1.3 1.1 1.7 1.4 1.4




NCAA Championship Selection Detail

Total
Region Finish Chance of Finishing Chance of Advancing Auto At Large Selection No Adv Auto At Large Region Finish
1 2 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13
1 7.7% 100.0% 7.7 7.7 1
2 56.4% 100.0% 56.4 56.4 2
3 27.7% 100.0% 3.6 13.7 7.9 1.9 0.5 0.1 0.0 0.0 27.7 3
4 7.3% 100.0% 0.1 0.4 0.4 0.7 0.7 1.2 1.5 1.2 0.6 0.3 0.3 0.1 7.3 4
5 0.8% 94.9% 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.7 5
6 0.1% 28.6% 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 6
7 0.0% 0.0 7
8 8
9 9
10 10
11 11
12 12
13 13
14 14
15 15
16 16
17 17
18 18
19 19
20 20
21 21
22 22
23 23
24 24
25 25
26 26
27 27
28 28
29 29
30 30
Total 100% 99.8% 7.7 56.4 3.6 13.8 8.3 2.3 1.1 0.8 1.3 1.7 1.4 0.7 0.4 0.3 0.1 0.2 64.1 35.8




Points



At large teams are selected based on the number of wins (points) against teams already in the championships. As a result, advancement is predicated on accumulating enough points before the last at-large selection. Accordingly, the points below are the total number of wins against automatic qualifiers or teams selected in the at-large process before the last selection. Minimum, maximum, and average points are number seen in 5,000 simulations of the NCAA Tournament.



Received By BeatingChance ReceivedAverage If >0Average
Wisconsin 100.0% 1.0 1.0
Princeton 100.0% 1.0 1.0
Northern Arizona 99.9% 1.0 1.0
Syracuse 99.7% 1.0 1.0
Georgia 99.2% 1.0 1.0
Eastern Kentucky 98.9% 1.0 1.0
Indiana 98.6% 2.0 2.0
New Mexico 98.4% 1.0 1.0
Portland 92.2% 1.0 0.9
Notre Dame 88.9% 1.0 0.9
UCLA 84.5% 1.0 0.8
Virginia 82.0% 1.0 0.8
Iowa State 53.5% 1.0 0.5
Texas A&M 52.7% 1.0 0.5
Kansas 41.8% 1.0 0.4
Arizona State 38.4% 1.0 0.4
North Carolina St. 20.7% 1.0 0.2
Minnesota 10.7% 2.0 0.2
Washington 7.0% 1.0 0.1
Dartmouth 5.0% 1.0 0.0
Missouri 4.6% 1.0 0.0
Illinois 2.5% 2.0 0.1
Penn State 0.8% 2.0 0.0
Cal Poly 0.7% 1.0 0.0
Michigan State 0.5% 2.0 0.0
Providence 0.4% 1.0 0.0
Harvard 0.3% 1.0 0.0
North Carolina 0.2% 1.0 0.0
Ohio State 0.0% 2.0 0.0
Cornell 0.0% 1.0 0.0
Total 15.0
Minimum 9.0
Maximum 22.0