Minnesota
Men - Women
2011 - 2012 - 2013
Switch to All-time Team Page
RankNameGradeRating
160  John Simons SR 32:06
193  Andrew Larsen JR 32:13
207  Derek Storkel JR 32:15
229  Pieter Gagnon SR 32:17
276  Marcus Paulson SO 32:24
480  Adam Zutz FR 32:53
763  Bobby Nicolls JR 33:24
778  Josh Thorson FR 33:26
779  Kevin Lachowitzer SR 33:26
874  Alex Brend FR 33:34
1,101  Travis Burkstrand SR 33:55
1,407  Blayne Dulian FR 34:21
1,559  Steve Sulkin JR 34:33
National Rank #38 of 311
Midwest Region Rank #8 of 33
Chance of Advancing to Nationals 28.2%
Most Likely Finish 8th at Regional


National Champion 0.0%
Top 5 at Nationals 0.1%
Top 10 at Nationals 0.5%
Top 20 at Nationals 5.1%


Regional Champion 0.0%
Top 5 in Regional 33.1%
Top 10 in Regional 100.0%
Top 20 in Regional 100.0%


Race Performance Ratings


Times listed are adjusted ratings based on performance compared to other runners in race.


RaceDateTeam Rating John Simons Andrew Larsen Derek Storkel Pieter Gagnon Marcus Paulson Adam Zutz Bobby Nicolls Josh Thorson Kevin Lachowitzer Alex Brend Travis Burkstrand
Roy Griak Invitational 09/29 590 31:53 31:57 32:07 32:11 32:05 33:07 32:44 33:27 33:35 34:13
Wisconsin adidas Invitational 10/12 677 32:15 32:03 32:13 32:03 32:25 32:52 33:18
Big Ten Championships 10/28 800 31:58 32:32 32:31 32:26 32:45 33:01 34:40 33:22 32:49
Midwest Region Championships 11/09 784 32:15 32:26 32:12 32:37 32:27 33:33 34:27





NCAA Tournament Simulation


Based on results of 5,000 simulations of the NCAA Tournament. Numbers in tables represent percentage of times each outcome occured during simulation.



Team Results

Advances to RoundAve FinishAve Score Finishing Place
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31
NCAA Championship 28.2% 25.3 587 0.1 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.5 0.7 0.4 0.5 0.8 1.0 1.2 1.4 1.1 1.5 1.5 1.8 2.0 2.6 2.8 3.4 3.7
Region Championship 100% 6.2 180 0.2 1.8 14.3 16.9 20.1 22.0 23.7 1.0 0.1



Individual Results

NCAA ChampionshipAdvances to RoundAve Finish Finishing Place
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25
John Simons 39.4% 118.3
Andrew Larsen 32.0% 133.5
Derek Storkel 31.1% 138.6
Pieter Gagnon 29.5% 146.1
Marcus Paulson 28.3% 163.9
Adam Zutz 28.2% 220.5
Bobby Nicolls 28.3% 245.2


RegionalAve Finish Finishing Place
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25
John Simons 26.2 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.9 1.1 1.7 2.5 2.7 2.5 3.5 3.4 3.5 3.9 3.7 3.5 3.0 3.6 3.0 2.8
Andrew Larsen 31.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.6 0.7 0.9 1.3 1.8 1.8 2.3 2.3 3.0 2.9 2.9 3.2 2.9 3.6
Derek Storkel 33.4 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.4 0.6 0.8 0.9 1.4 1.6 1.8 2.1 2.0 2.7 2.6 2.5 2.8 2.8
Pieter Gagnon 35.3 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.5 0.6 0.9 1.0 1.0 1.5 1.8 1.9 2.5 2.1 2.5 3.0
Marcus Paulson 41.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.5 0.4 0.7 0.8 1.1 1.3 1.4 1.4
Adam Zutz 62.3 0.0
Bobby Nicolls 81.7




NCAA Championship Selection Detail

Total
Region Finish Chance of Finishing Chance of Advancing Auto At Large Selection No Adv Auto At Large Region Finish
1 2 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13
1 1
2 0.2% 100.0% 0.2 0.2 2
3 1.8% 95.5% 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.1 0.1 1.7 3
4 14.3% 69.6% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.6 0.8 1.4 2.2 2.9 1.7 4.3 9.9 4
5 16.9% 51.2% 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.2 0.6 0.9 1.6 2.5 2.6 8.2 8.7 5
6 20.1% 25.9% 0.1 0.1 0.4 0.6 1.1 3.0 14.9 5.2 6
7 22.0% 9.8% 0.1 0.3 0.4 1.4 19.8 2.2 7
8 23.7% 1.4% 0.1 0.2 23.4 0.3 8
9 1.0% 2.0% 0.0 1.0 0.0 9
10 0.1% 0.1 10
11 11
12 12
13 13
14 14
15 15
16 16
17 17
18 18
19 19
20 20
21 21
22 22
23 23
24 24
25 25
26 26
27 27
28 28
29 29
30 30
31 31
32 32
33 33
Total 100% 28.2% 0.2 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.4 1.0 1.7 3.0 4.9 7.3 9.0 71.8 0.2 28.0




Points



At large teams are selected based on the number of wins (points) against teams already in the championships. As a result, advancement is predicated on accumulating enough points before the last at-large selection. Accordingly, the points below are the total number of wins against automatic qualifiers or teams selected in the at-large process before the last selection. Minimum, maximum, and average points are number seen in 5,000 simulations of the NCAA Tournament.



Received By BeatingChance ReceivedAverage If >0Average
Notre Dame 88.9% 1.0 0.9
Virginia 82.0% 1.0 0.8
Iowa State 53.5% 1.0 0.5
North Carolina St. 20.7% 1.0 0.2
Washington 7.0% 1.0 0.1
Dartmouth 5.0% 1.0 0.0
Missouri 4.6% 1.0 0.0
Illinois 2.5% 1.0 0.0
Penn State 0.8% 2.0 0.0
Cal Poly 0.7% 1.0 0.0
Michigan State 0.5% 2.0 0.0
Providence 0.4% 1.0 0.0
Harvard 0.3% 1.0 0.0
North Carolina 0.2% 1.0 0.0
Boise State 0.0% 1.0 0.0
Cornell 0.0% 1.0 0.0
Ohio State 0.0% 2.0 0.0
Total 2.7
Minimum 0.0
Maximum 7.0