North Carolina St.
Men - Women
2011 - 2012 - 2013
Switch to All-time Team Page
RankNameGradeRating
9  Andrew Colley JR 30:51
88  Matt Sonnenfeldt SR 31:50
188  Edward Crawford FR 32:12
372  Mitch Mallory FR 32:37
373  Brian Himelright SR 32:37
376  Patrick Campbell SR 32:38
465  Robert Andrews JR 32:50
492  Michael Mansy SO 32:54
633  Robert Mintz FR 33:11
757  Vibushan Sivakumaran FR 33:22
986  Matt Schick SO 33:45
1,604  John Wolfe SO 34:37
National Rank #25 of 311
Southeast Region Rank #3 of 47
Chance of Advancing to Nationals 42.3%
Most Likely Finish 3rd at Regional


National Champion 0.0%
Top 5 at Nationals 0.1%
Top 10 at Nationals 1.7%
Top 20 at Nationals 21.5%


Regional Champion 5.6%
Top 5 in Regional 92.6%
Top 10 in Regional 100.0%
Top 20 in Regional 100.0%


Race Performance Ratings


Times listed are adjusted ratings based on performance compared to other runners in race.


RaceDateTeam Rating Andrew Colley Matt Sonnenfeldt Edward Crawford Mitch Mallory Brian Himelright Patrick Campbell Robert Andrews Michael Mansy Robert Mintz Vibushan Sivakumaran Matt Schick
Notre Dame Invitational (Blue) 09/28 756 31:49 33:03 32:25 32:20 32:36 32:32
Wisconsin adidas Invitational 10/12 809 31:49 32:08 32:54 33:02 32:42 32:56
Blue Ridge Open Meet 10/12 33:22 33:44
ACC Championships 10/27 31:55 32:52 33:57
Southeast Region Championships 11/09 453 30:55 31:15 31:49 34:01 32:14 33:06 32:29
NCAA Championship 11/17 692 30:49 32:42 32:30 32:39 32:16 33:05 34:20





NCAA Tournament Simulation


Based on results of 5,000 simulations of the NCAA Tournament. Numbers in tables represent percentage of times each outcome occured during simulation.



Team Results

Advances to RoundAve FinishAve Score Finishing Place
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31
NCAA Championship 42.3% 20.2 485 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.8 1.1 1.5 1.9 2.0 2.0 2.6 2.5 2.8 2.6 2.4 2.7 2.4 2.6 2.6 2.3 2.0 1.8 1.1 0.6 0.3
Region Championship 100% 3.5 126 5.6 15.0 34.9 24.7 12.3 5.4 1.5 0.4 0.1



Individual Results

NCAA ChampionshipAdvances to RoundAve Finish Finishing Place
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25
Andrew Colley 100.0% 10.1 0.1 0.4 1.9 6.5 7.7 8.2 6.4 6.8 5.9 5.5 4.3 3.7 3.5 3.4 2.4 2.3 2.1 1.8 2.1 1.4 1.5 1.3 1.3 1.3 1.0
Matt Sonnenfeldt 44.5% 75.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1
Edward Crawford 42.3% 134.3
Mitch Mallory 42.3% 197.1
Brian Himelright 42.3% 195.0
Patrick Campbell 42.3% 196.9
Robert Andrews 42.3% 218.6


RegionalAve Finish Finishing Place
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25
Andrew Colley 1.6 31.0 34.2 12.7 7.0 4.7 2.9 2.0 1.4 1.1 0.8 0.6 0.3 0.4 0.3 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0
Matt Sonnenfeldt 13.7 0.0 0.1 0.6 1.1 2.0 3.1 5.0 6.0 7.0 7.2 7.6 6.4 5.8 5.0 4.2 4.2 3.4 3.1 2.6 2.3 2.4 2.0 1.9 1.7
Edward Crawford 24.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.5 0.9 1.5 1.9 2.6 3.2 3.7 3.7 4.0 4.4 5.4 4.6 4.1 4.7 3.8 3.5
Mitch Mallory 43.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.4 0.6 0.6 0.7 1.0 1.3
Brian Himelright 43.3 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.5 0.7 0.6 1.1 1.4
Patrick Campbell 44.5 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.5 0.4 0.6 0.9 1.3
Robert Andrews 56.8 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1




NCAA Championship Selection Detail

Total
Region Finish Chance of Finishing Chance of Advancing Auto At Large Selection No Adv Auto At Large Region Finish
1 2 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13
1 5.6% 100.0% 5.6 5.6 1
2 15.0% 100.0% 15.0 15.0 2
3 34.9% 54.3% 0.1 0.6 1.2 1.3 1.8 1.6 2.7 2.4 2.0 1.9 1.4 2.0 0.0 15.9 18.9 3
4 24.7% 10.4% 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.5 0.4 0.5 0.5 22.1 2.6 4
5 12.3% 0.8% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 12.2 0.1 5
6 5.4% 5.4 6
7 1.5% 1.5 7
8 0.4% 0.4 8
9 0.1% 0.1 9
10 10
11 11
12 12
13 13
14 14
15 15
16 16
17 17
18 18
19 19
20 20
21 21
22 22
23 23
24 24
25 25
26 26
27 27
28 28
29 29
30 30
31 31
32 32
33 33
34 34
35 35
36 36
37 37
38 38
39 39
40 40
41 41
42 42
43 43
44 44
45 45
46 46
47 47
Total 100% 42.3% 5.6 15.0 0.1 0.6 1.2 1.3 1.9 1.7 2.9 2.8 2.5 2.3 1.9 2.5 0.0 57.7 20.7 21.6




Points



At large teams are selected based on the number of wins (points) against teams already in the championships. As a result, advancement is predicated on accumulating enough points before the last at-large selection. Accordingly, the points below are the total number of wins against automatic qualifiers or teams selected in the at-large process before the last selection. Minimum, maximum, and average points are number seen in 5,000 simulations of the NCAA Tournament.



Received By BeatingChance ReceivedAverage If >0Average
Illinois 2.5% 1.0 0.0
Penn State 0.8% 1.0 0.0
Michigan State 0.5% 1.0 0.0
Providence 0.4% 1.0 0.0
North Carolina 0.2% 1.0 0.0
Ohio State 0.0% 2.0 0.0
Cornell 0.0% 1.0 0.0
Navy 0.0% 1.0 0.0
Total 0.0
Minimum 0.0
Maximum 2.0