North Carolina
Men - Women
2011 - 2012 - 2013
Switch to All-time Team Page
RankNameGradeRating
179  Ryan Walling SO 32:10
183  Pat Schellberg JR 32:11
369  Jack Driggs SO 32:37
462  Scott Morgan SO 32:50
500  Steve Magnuson JR 32:55
535  Isaac Presson JR 33:00
571  Mark Derrick FR 33:03
660  John Raneri JR 33:13
848  Braedon Koerwitz SO 33:32
899  Dan Mykityshyn SO 33:37
National Rank #55 of 311
Southeast Region Rank #9 of 47
Chance of Advancing to Nationals 1.1%
Most Likely Finish 7th at Regional


National Champion 0.0%
Top 5 at Nationals 0.0%
Top 10 at Nationals 0.0%
Top 20 at Nationals 0.1%


Regional Champion 0.0%
Top 5 in Regional 19.5%
Top 10 in Regional 98.9%
Top 20 in Regional 100.0%


Race Performance Ratings


Times listed are adjusted ratings based on performance compared to other runners in race.


RaceDateTeam Rating Ryan Walling Pat Schellberg Jack Driggs Scott Morgan Steve Magnuson Isaac Presson Mark Derrick John Raneri Braedon Koerwitz Dan Mykityshyn
Notre Dame Invitational (Blue) 09/28 778 32:26 31:59 32:16 32:53 32:54 32:31 32:47
Wisconsin adidas Invitational 10/12 733 31:45 32:38 32:09 32:31 32:31 33:18
ACC Championships 10/27 786 31:56 31:43 33:08 34:22 33:29 32:52 33:06 32:46 33:33 33:39
Southeast Region Championships 11/09 1003 32:55 32:36 33:17 32:24 34:20 34:00





NCAA Tournament Simulation


Based on results of 5,000 simulations of the NCAA Tournament. Numbers in tables represent percentage of times each outcome occured during simulation.



Team Results

Advances to RoundAve FinishAve Score Finishing Place
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31
NCAA Championship 1.1% 27.3 637 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.2 0.2
Region Championship 100% 6.9 209 0.2 1.6 5.5 12.1 19.8 25.4 20.6 9.5 4.1 0.7 0.3 0.1



Individual Results

NCAA ChampionshipAdvances to RoundAve Finish Finishing Place
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25
Ryan Walling 1.9% 116.5
Pat Schellberg 1.6% 99.7
Jack Driggs 1.1% 172.5
Scott Morgan 1.1% 200.6
Steve Magnuson 1.1% 211.5
Isaac Presson 1.1% 219.5
Mark Derrick 1.1% 218.8


RegionalAve Finish Finishing Place
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25
Ryan Walling 23.3 0.2 0.5 1.0 1.4 1.7 2.6 3.2 3.8 4.2 4.3 4.4 4.8 4.2 4.4 4.5 4.1 3.4 3.4
Pat Schellberg 23.8 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.9 0.9 2.0 2.5 2.8 3.9 3.7 3.8 4.2 4.7 4.5 4.4 4.2 3.8 3.8 3.6
Jack Driggs 43.4 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.7 1.0 1.1 1.3 1.3
Scott Morgan 56.4 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1
Steve Magnuson 60.4 0.0 0.0 0.1
Isaac Presson 65.7 0.0
Mark Derrick 69.7 0.0




NCAA Championship Selection Detail

Total
Region Finish Chance of Finishing Chance of Advancing Auto At Large Selection No Adv Auto At Large Region Finish
1 2 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13
1 1
2 0.2% 100.0% 0.2 0.2 2
3 1.6% 41.8% 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.9 0.7 3
4 5.5% 2.9% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 5.4 0.2 4
5 12.1% 0.2% 0.0 12.1 0.0 5
6 19.8% 19.8 6
7 25.4% 25.4 7
8 20.6% 20.6 8
9 9.5% 9.5 9
10 4.1% 4.1 10
11 0.7% 0.7 11
12 0.3% 0.3 12
13 0.1% 0.1 13
14 14
15 15
16 16
17 17
18 18
19 19
20 20
21 21
22 22
23 23
24 24
25 25
26 26
27 27
28 28
29 29
30 30
31 31
32 32
33 33
34 34
35 35
36 36
37 37
38 38
39 39
40 40
41 41
42 42
43 43
44 44
45 45
46 46
47 47
Total 100% 1.1% 0.2 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.2 98.9 0.2 0.8




Points



At large teams are selected based on the number of wins (points) against teams already in the championships. As a result, advancement is predicated on accumulating enough points before the last at-large selection. Accordingly, the points below are the total number of wins against automatic qualifiers or teams selected in the at-large process before the last selection. Minimum, maximum, and average points are number seen in 5,000 simulations of the NCAA Tournament.



Received By BeatingChance ReceivedAverage If >0Average
North Carolina St. 20.7% 1.0 0.2
Dartmouth 5.0% 1.0 0.0
Missouri 4.6% 1.0 0.0
Illinois 2.5% 1.0 0.0
Penn State 0.8% 1.0 0.0
Cal Poly 0.7% 1.0 0.0
Michigan State 0.5% 1.0 0.0
Providence 0.4% 1.0 0.0
Ohio State 0.0% 2.0 0.0
Cornell 0.0% 1.0 0.0
Navy 0.0% 1.0 0.0
Total 0.4
Minimum 0.0
Maximum 4.0