Northern Arizona
Men - Women
2011 - 2012 - 2013
Switch to All-time Team Page
RankNameGradeRating
17  Brian Shrader JR 31:07
32  Futsum Zienasellassie FR 31:20
71  Matt McElroy SO 31:42
103  Caleb Hoover SO 31:53
122  Nathan Weitz FR 31:58
394  Alejandro Montano FR 32:40
479  Cody Reed SO 32:52
798  Roman Acosta SR 33:28
2,063  Chris Ganem SO 35:22
National Rank #6 of 311
Mountain Region Rank #2 of 18
Chance of Advancing to Nationals 100.0%
Most Likely Finish 5th at Nationals


National Champion 1.2%
Top 5 at Nationals 32.6%
Top 10 at Nationals 70.6%
Top 20 at Nationals 96.8%


Regional Champion 13.0%
Top 5 in Regional 100.0%
Top 10 in Regional 100.0%
Top 20 in Regional 100.0%


Race Performance Ratings


Times listed are adjusted ratings based on performance compared to other runners in race.


RaceDateTeam Rating Brian Shrader Futsum Zienasellassie Matt McElroy Caleb Hoover Nathan Weitz Alejandro Montano Cody Reed Roman Acosta Chris Ganem
Grand Canyon University Invitational 10/06 1309 33:40 34:21 38:42
Wisconsin adidas Invitational 10/12 580 31:34 31:37 32:23 32:20 32:12 32:22 32:47
Big Sky Championships 10/27 456 31:32 31:33 31:32 32:06 32:39 32:21 33:18 33:44
Mountain Region Championships 11/09 265 31:11 31:08 31:22 31:28 31:54 32:43 33:13
NCAA Championship 11/17 282 30:47 31:04 31:41 31:43 31:47 33:11 32:54





NCAA Tournament Simulation


Based on results of 5,000 simulations of the NCAA Tournament. Numbers in tables represent percentage of times each outcome occured during simulation.



Team Results

Advances to RoundAve FinishAve Score Finishing Place
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31
NCAA Championship 100% 8.6 298 1.2 4.7 8.1 9.2 9.4 9.2 8.9 7.8 6.6 5.5 5.6 4.2 3.5 2.8 2.5 2.0 1.8 1.4 1.1 1.2 0.6 0.8 0.6 0.3 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.0
Region Championship 100% 2.4 80 13.0 40.1 37.0 9.8 0.1



Individual Results

NCAA ChampionshipAdvances to RoundAve Finish Finishing Place
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25
Brian Shrader 100% 21.4 0.0 0.4 1.1 1.7 2.4 2.9 2.8 3.3 3.7 3.5 3.1 3.7 3.5 2.9 3.1 3.2 2.5 2.8 2.3 2.7 2.0 2.3 2.0
Futsum Zienasellassie 100% 35.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.6 0.7 1.1 1.4 1.6 1.6 1.5 2.1 1.9 2.3 2.3 2.2 2.6 1.9 1.9 2.1 2.4
Matt McElroy 100% 70.8 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.3
Caleb Hoover 100% 97.5 0.0 0.0
Nathan Weitz 100% 108.9
Alejandro Montano 100% 208.8
Cody Reed 100% 227.7


RegionalAve Finish Finishing Place
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25
Brian Shrader 4.4 0.1 8.2 18.3 18.5 13.0 9.8 7.1 4.8 4.0 3.0 2.2 2.5 1.4 1.1 0.9 0.7 0.8 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.1 0.2 0.2
Futsum Zienasellassie 7.0 0.7 5.2 10.5 12.8 11.6 9.0 7.9 7.4 5.8 4.6 3.2 2.9 2.5 2.3 1.7 1.6 1.3 1.0 1.0 1.0 0.8 0.8 0.6 0.5
Matt McElroy 14.6 0.1 0.4 0.9 2.0 3.8 5.3 5.7 6.2 6.7 6.0 5.4 5.0 4.4 4.3 3.3 3.5 3.4 3.4 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.3 2.3
Caleb Hoover 19.9 0.2 0.6 1.0 2.0 3.0 3.4 4.5 4.6 4.9 4.7 4.7 4.3 4.7 4.1 3.8 4.1 3.3 3.4 3.2 2.9
Nathan Weitz 22.6 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.9 1.8 2.3 2.7 3.1 3.2 3.6 4.6 4.3 4.3 4.0 4.8 3.7 3.5 4.4 3.5 3.6
Alejandro Montano 46.5 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1
Cody Reed 54.4




NCAA Championship Selection Detail

Total
Region Finish Chance of Finishing Chance of Advancing Auto At Large Selection No Adv Auto At Large Region Finish
1 2 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13
1 13.0% 100.0% 13.0 13.0 1
2 40.1% 100.0% 40.1 40.1 2
3 37.0% 100.0% 0.1 2.0 6.5 7.9 8.3 5.8 3.4 1.7 1.0 0.2 0.1 0.1 37.0 3
4 9.8% 100.0% 0.2 1.1 1.8 2.0 2.0 1.3 0.6 0.5 0.0 0.1 0.1 9.8 4
5 0.1% 100.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 5
6 6
7 7
8 8
9 9
10 10
11 11
12 12
13 13
14 14
15 15
16 16
17 17
18 18
Total 100% 100.0% 13.0 40.1 0.1 2.0 6.6 9.0 10.1 7.9 5.4 3.0 1.6 0.8 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 53.1 46.9




Points



At large teams are selected based on the number of wins (points) against teams already in the championships. As a result, advancement is predicated on accumulating enough points before the last at-large selection. Accordingly, the points below are the total number of wins against automatic qualifiers or teams selected in the at-large process before the last selection. Minimum, maximum, and average points are number seen in 5,000 simulations of the NCAA Tournament.



Received By BeatingChance ReceivedAverage If >0Average
Wisconsin 100.0% 1.0 1.0
Princeton 100.0% 1.0 1.0
Georgia 99.2% 1.0 1.0
Indiana 98.6% 1.0 1.0
Notre Dame 88.9% 1.0 0.9
Virginia 82.0% 1.0 0.8
Iowa State 53.5% 1.0 0.5
Texas A&M 52.7% 1.0 0.5
Kansas 41.8% 1.0 0.4
Arizona State 38.4% 1.0 0.4
North Carolina St. 20.7% 1.0 0.2
Minnesota 10.7% 1.0 0.1
Washington 7.0% 1.0 0.1
Dartmouth 5.0% 1.0 0.0
Missouri 4.6% 1.0 0.0
Illinois 2.5% 1.0 0.0
Penn State 0.8% 1.0 0.0
Cal Poly 0.7% 1.0 0.0
Michigan State 0.5% 1.0 0.0
Providence 0.4% 1.0 0.0
Harvard 0.3% 1.0 0.0
North Carolina 0.2% 1.0 0.0
Ohio State 0.0% 1.0 0.0
Cornell 0.0% 1.0 0.0
Total 8.1
Minimum 3.0
Maximum 13.0