Oklahoma
Men - Women
2011 - 2012 - 2013
Switch to All-time Team Page
RankNameGradeRating
30  Patrick Casey SR 31:19
53  Kevin Williams SR 31:30
58  Bill Kogel SR 31:34
66  Riley Masters SR 31:39
94  Andrew Weaver SR 31:51
95  Ryan Poland SO 31:52
212  Brandon Doughty FR 32:15
270  Kyle King SR 32:22
612  Daniel Nicolls SO 33:08
802  Dan Schubert FR 33:28
National Rank #5 of 311
Midwest Region Rank #2 of 33
Chance of Advancing to Nationals 99.9%
Most Likely Finish 3rd at Nationals


National Champion 4.0%
Top 5 at Nationals 60.0%
Top 10 at Nationals 89.3%
Top 20 at Nationals 99.4%


Regional Champion 6.5%
Top 5 in Regional 99.9%
Top 10 in Regional 100.0%
Top 20 in Regional 100.0%


Race Performance Ratings


Times listed are adjusted ratings based on performance compared to other runners in race.


RaceDateTeam Rating Patrick Casey Kevin Williams Bill Kogel Riley Masters Andrew Weaver Ryan Poland Brandon Doughty Kyle King Daniel Nicolls Dan Schubert
Wisconsin adidas Invitational 10/12 341 31:11 31:31 31:46 31:43 31:51 31:46 32:13
Big 12 Championships 10/27 313 31:15 31:27 31:31 31:40 31:49 32:05 32:10 32:31 33:08 33:28
Midwest Region Championships 11/09 284 31:25 31:25 31:30 31:30 31:42 31:43 32:13
NCAA Championship 11/17 394 31:41 31:45 31:31 31:42 32:09 31:51 32:32





NCAA Tournament Simulation


Based on results of 5,000 simulations of the NCAA Tournament. Numbers in tables represent percentage of times each outcome occured during simulation.



Team Results

Advances to RoundAve FinishAve Score Finishing Place
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31
NCAA Championship 99.9% 5.7 239 4.0 14.0 15.8 14.4 11.9 8.4 7.2 5.8 4.6 3.3 2.6 1.9 1.4 1.4 0.7 0.3 0.5 0.5 0.4 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Region Championship 100% 2.1 58 6.5 74.0 18.0 1.2 0.2 0.1



Individual Results

NCAA ChampionshipAdvances to RoundAve Finish Finishing Place
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25
Patrick Casey 100.0% 34.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.5 0.7 1.0 1.1 1.6 1.4 1.9 2.1 1.9 1.9 2.2 2.4 2.0 2.0 2.4 2.3 2.4 1.8
Kevin Williams 99.9% 49.2 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.5 0.4 0.4 0.7 0.9 0.9 1.0 1.0 1.1 1.3 1.4 1.4
Bill Kogel 100.0% 55.8 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.6 0.7 1.0 1.0
Riley Masters 100.0% 64.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.3 0.6 0.4
Andrew Weaver 99.9% 92.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Ryan Poland 99.9% 93.1 0.0 0.0 0.1
Brandon Doughty 99.9% 155.5


RegionalAve Finish Finishing Place
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25
Patrick Casey 5.5 2.1 6.9 10.8 13.7 11.6 10.0 7.5 5.8 4.5 4.0 3.2 2.7 2.2 2.3 2.1 1.2 1.2 1.1 1.0 1.0 0.5 0.5 0.3 0.4 0.3
Kevin Williams 8.3 0.3 1.5 4.2 6.2 8.7 10.1 9.2 7.8 6.4 5.8 4.8 4.4 3.7 3.3 3.0 2.5 2.1 1.9 1.3 1.1 1.4 1.0 0.9 0.9 0.7
Bill Kogel 9.4 0.1 0.7 2.7 4.8 6.7 8.0 8.5 8.6 7.3 6.1 4.5 4.4 4.3 3.2 3.3 2.7 2.8 2.1 1.9 1.6 1.3 1.2 1.3 1.4 0.7
Riley Masters 11.6 0.0 0.2 0.5 1.8 4.4 5.8 6.5 7.8 7.2 6.3 6.2 5.5 4.7 4.1 3.7 3.7 3.0 2.8 2.3 2.0 1.9 1.5 1.7 1.6 1.2
Andrew Weaver 16.8 0.1 0.3 1.1 1.4 2.7 3.6 4.9 5.5 6.0 6.1 5.3 5.1 4.5 4.2 4.1 3.2 3.2 3.2 2.5 2.5 2.0 2.1
Ryan Poland 17.2 0.1 0.3 0.7 1.5 2.7 3.4 4.7 5.4 5.3 5.4 5.7 4.8 5.0 4.3 4.4 3.6 3.5 2.7 2.6 2.5 2.2 2.0
Brandon Doughty 34.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.7 0.7 1.1 1.5 2.0 2.1 2.2 2.7 3.0 2.7 2.6 3.0




NCAA Championship Selection Detail

Total
Region Finish Chance of Finishing Chance of Advancing Auto At Large Selection No Adv Auto At Large Region Finish
1 2 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13
1 6.5% 100.0% 6.5 6.5 1
2 74.0% 100.0% 74.0 74.0 2
3 18.0% 100.0% 4.9 9.9 2.9 0.3 0.0 0.0 18.0 3
4 1.2% 100.0% 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.1 1.2 4
5 0.2% 90.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.2 5
6 0.1% 33.3% 0.0 0.0 0.0 6
7 7
8 8
9 9
10 10
11 11
12 12
13 13
14 14
15 15
16 16
17 17
18 18
19 19
20 20
21 21
22 22
23 23
24 24
25 25
26 26
27 27
28 28
29 29
30 30
31 31
32 32
33 33
Total 100% 99.9% 6.5 74.0 4.9 10.0 3.0 0.3 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.1 80.5 19.4




Points



At large teams are selected based on the number of wins (points) against teams already in the championships. As a result, advancement is predicated on accumulating enough points before the last at-large selection. Accordingly, the points below are the total number of wins against automatic qualifiers or teams selected in the at-large process before the last selection. Minimum, maximum, and average points are number seen in 5,000 simulations of the NCAA Tournament.



Received By BeatingChance ReceivedAverage If >0Average
Wisconsin 100.0% 1.0 1.0
Texas 100.0% 1.0 1.0
Princeton 100.0% 1.0 1.0
Arkansas 100.0% 1.0 1.0
Northern Arizona 99.9% 1.0 1.0
Michigan 99.8% 1.0 1.0
Syracuse 99.7% 1.0 1.0
Georgia 99.2% 1.0 1.0
Eastern Kentucky 98.9% 1.0 1.0
Indiana 98.6% 1.0 1.0
New Mexico 98.4% 1.0 1.0
Columbia 98.4% 1.0 1.0
Portland 92.2% 1.0 0.9
Notre Dame 88.9% 1.0 0.9
UCLA 84.5% 1.0 0.8
Virginia 82.0% 1.0 0.8
Iowa State 53.5% 2.0 1.1
Texas A&M 52.7% 1.0 0.5
Kansas 41.8% 2.0 0.8
Arizona State 38.4% 1.0 0.4
North Carolina St. 20.7% 1.0 0.2
Minnesota 10.7% 1.0 0.1
Washington 7.0% 1.0 0.1
Dartmouth 5.0% 1.0 0.0
Missouri 4.6% 1.0 0.0
Illinois 2.5% 1.0 0.0
Penn State 0.8% 1.0 0.0
Cal Poly 0.7% 1.0 0.0
Michigan State 0.5% 1.0 0.0
Providence 0.4% 1.0 0.0
Harvard 0.3% 1.0 0.0
North Carolina 0.2% 1.0 0.0
Ohio State 0.0% 1.0 0.0
Cornell 0.0% 1.0 0.0
Total 18.8
Minimum 13.0
Maximum 24.0