Oregon
Men - Women
2011 - 2012 - 2013
Switch to All-time Team Page
RankNameGradeRating
24  Trevor Dunbar SR 31:14
74  Parker Stinson JR 31:45
201  Matthew Melancon 32:14
259  Ben DeJarnette JR 32:21
271  Cole Watson SO 32:23
322  Ryan Pickering SO 32:31
340  Daniel Winn SO 32:33
385  Jeramy Elkaim SO 32:40
510  Chris Brewer FR 32:57
721  Mac Fleet JR 33:19
775  Mitchell Hunt JR 33:26
887  Chad Noelle FR 33:36
903  Colby Alexander SO 33:38
1,380  Tim Costin JR 34:18
2,335  Joseph Holvey 35:47
National Rank #23 of 311
West Region Rank #4 of 32
Chance of Advancing to Nationals 87.7%
Most Likely Finish 20th at Nationals


National Champion 0.0%
Top 5 at Nationals 0.8%
Top 10 at Nationals 7.7%
Top 20 at Nationals 51.0%


Regional Champion 7.3%
Top 5 in Regional 87.4%
Top 10 in Regional 100.0%
Top 20 in Regional 100.0%


Race Performance Ratings


Times listed are adjusted ratings based on performance compared to other runners in race.


RaceDateTeam Rating Trevor Dunbar Parker Stinson Matthew Melancon Ben DeJarnette Cole Watson Ryan Pickering Daniel Winn Jeramy Elkaim Chris Brewer Mac Fleet Mitchell Hunt
Oregon Dellinger Invitational 09/29 565 31:32 32:01 32:40 31:46 32:09 32:45 32:34 33:06 33:25
Pre-Nationals Meet (Black) 10/13 32:29
Pre-Nationals Meet (Red) 10/13 397 31:06 31:11 32:15 31:48 32:02 32:46 32:08
Pac-12 Championships 10/27 480 31:02 31:02 32:10 33:21 32:26 32:14 33:08 33:55 33:15
West Region Championships 11/09 621 31:34 31:44 32:18 32:58 33:27 32:37 32:18
NCAA Championship 11/17 607 31:15 34:06 31:53 32:21 32:17 32:26 33:20





NCAA Tournament Simulation


Based on results of 5,000 simulations of the NCAA Tournament. Numbers in tables represent percentage of times each outcome occured during simulation.



Team Results

Advances to RoundAve FinishAve Score Finishing Place
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31
NCAA Championship 87.7% 18.9 468 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.6 1.3 1.1 1.7 2.3 3.3 3.2 3.7 3.9 4.5 4.6 4.6 4.9 5.0 5.5 5.5 4.7 4.4 4.6 3.6 3.8 3.1 2.5 2.1 1.6 0.8
Region Championship 100% 3.6 124 7.3 20.2 22.4 22.3 15.3 7.8 3.6 1.0 0.2 0.0



Individual Results

NCAA ChampionshipAdvances to RoundAve Finish Finishing Place
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25
Trevor Dunbar 99.3% 27.6 0.1 0.3 0.5 1.1 1.4 1.4 2.1 2.0 2.5 3.0 3.2 2.7 2.6 2.5 3.0 2.7 2.2 2.3 2.0 2.2 2.2 2.2
Parker Stinson 89.5% 75.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1
Matthew Melancon 87.7% 149.8
Ben DeJarnette 87.7% 167.4
Cole Watson 87.7% 170.2
Ryan Pickering 87.7% 188.8
Daniel Winn 87.7% 195.5


RegionalAve Finish Finishing Place
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25
Trevor Dunbar 3.6 1.1 37.9 19.5 12.3 7.2 4.8 3.3 2.5 1.8 1.3 1.4 0.9 0.8 0.7 0.5 0.4 0.6 0.4 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2
Parker Stinson 10.8 0.0 0.4 3.2 5.8 8.1 8.2 6.9 6.9 5.8 5.6 4.9 3.9 3.2 3.5 2.8 2.5 1.9 1.9 1.6 1.7 1.4 1.4 1.1 1.2
Matthew Melancon 30.9 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.5 0.8 1.2 1.4 1.9 2.1 2.2 2.5 2.3 2.6 2.4 2.9 3.0 2.8 2.4 2.6 2.8
Ben DeJarnette 38.3 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.5 0.5 1.1 0.8 1.2 1.5 1.4 1.9 2.2 1.8 1.9 2.2 2.2
Cole Watson 39.9 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.6 0.7 0.9 0.9 1.0 1.4 1.4 1.8 1.6 1.9 1.8 2.1
Ryan Pickering 48.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.3 0.5 0.5 0.6 0.8 0.7 1.3
Daniel Winn 51.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.5 0.7 0.6




NCAA Championship Selection Detail

Total
Region Finish Chance of Finishing Chance of Advancing Auto At Large Selection No Adv Auto At Large Region Finish
1 2 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13
1 7.3% 100.0% 7.3 7.3 1
2 20.2% 100.0% 20.2 20.2 2
3 22.4% 98.5% 0.1 0.8 2.9 2.9 3.0 3.1 3.0 2.5 1.3 1.1 0.7 0.5 0.2 0.3 22.0 3
4 22.3% 97.6% 0.7 3.8 3.9 3.4 2.5 1.9 1.1 1.4 0.9 1.0 1.0 0.5 21.8 4
5 15.3% 86.4% 0.0 0.7 2.3 1.8 1.6 1.3 1.0 1.2 1.0 0.8 1.5 2.1 13.2 5
6 7.8% 39.6% 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.6 0.6 0.7 4.7 3.1 6
7 3.6% 3.9% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 3.4 0.1 7
8 1.0% 1.0 8
9 0.2% 0.2 9
10 0.0% 0.0 10
11 11
12 12
13 13
14 14
15 15
16 16
17 17
18 18
19 19
20 20
21 21
22 22
23 23
24 24
25 25
26 26
27 27
28 28
29 29
30 30
31 31
32 32
Total 100% 87.7% 7.3 20.2 0.1 0.8 3.6 7.3 9.2 8.4 7.3 6.0 3.7 4.0 3.1 3.0 3.5 12.3 27.5 60.3




Points



At large teams are selected based on the number of wins (points) against teams already in the championships. As a result, advancement is predicated on accumulating enough points before the last at-large selection. Accordingly, the points below are the total number of wins against automatic qualifiers or teams selected in the at-large process before the last selection. Minimum, maximum, and average points are number seen in 5,000 simulations of the NCAA Tournament.



Received By BeatingChance ReceivedAverage If >0Average
Florida State 100.0% 1.0 1.0
Tulsa 97.5% 1.0 1.0
UCLA 84.5% 1.0 0.8
Georgetown 80.3% 1.0 0.8
Virginia Tech 59.0% 1.0 0.6
Arizona State 38.4% 1.0 0.4
Villanova 34.8% 1.0 0.3
Florida 12.5% 1.0 0.1
Duke 11.7% 1.0 0.1
Washington 7.0% 2.0 0.1
William and Mary 0.9% 1.0 0.0
Washington St. 0.5% 1.0 0.0
Louisville 0.3% 1.0 0.0
McNeese State 0.2% 1.0 0.0
Boise State 0.0% 1.0 0.0
Lehigh 0.0% 1.0 0.0
Total 5.3
Minimum 2.0
Maximum 9.0