Portland
Men - Women
2011 - 2012 - 2013
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RankNameGradeRating
34  Scott Fauble SO 31:21
79  David Perry SO 31:47
111  William Kincaid SO 31:55
181  Lars Erik Malde SR 32:11
272  Jared Bassett SR 32:23
318  Jacob Smith FR 32:31
431  Charlie McDonald JR 32:46
540  Izaic Yorks FR 33:00
643  Aiden Irish JR 33:11
National Rank #15 of 311
West Region Rank #2 of 32
Chance of Advancing to Nationals 94.1%
Most Likely Finish 14th at Nationals


National Champion 0.0%
Top 5 at Nationals 2.0%
Top 10 at Nationals 15.6%
Top 20 at Nationals 65.1%


Regional Champion 13.0%
Top 5 in Regional 93.0%
Top 10 in Regional 100.0%
Top 20 in Regional 100.0%


Race Performance Ratings


Times listed are adjusted ratings based on performance compared to other runners in race.


RaceDateTeam Rating Scott Fauble David Perry William Kincaid Lars Erik Malde Jared Bassett Jacob Smith Charlie McDonald Izaic Yorks Aiden Irish
Charles Bowles Willamette Invitational 09/29 1141 33:10 33:34
Wisconsin adidas Invitational 10/12 559 31:42 31:37 32:23 32:08 32:06 32:23 33:15
WCC Championships 10/27 495 31:39 31:43 31:39 32:09 32:12 32:43 32:25 33:52 33:09
West Region Championships 11/09 589 31:46 31:50 32:11 32:03 32:23 33:09 32:33
NCAA Championship 11/17 490 31:01 32:09 31:35 32:05 33:20 32:19 33:10





NCAA Tournament Simulation


Based on results of 5,000 simulations of the NCAA Tournament. Numbers in tables represent percentage of times each outcome occured during simulation.



Team Results

Advances to RoundAve FinishAve Score Finishing Place
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31
NCAA Championship 94.1% 17.0 438 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.5 1.0 2.0 1.9 2.6 3.4 3.8 3.8 4.8 5.0 5.9 5.2 5.1 5.6 4.9 4.7 4.6 4.6 3.8 3.8 3.6 3.6 2.7 2.2 1.6 1.3 0.9 1.0
Region Championship 100% 3.1 112 13.0 28.8 23.9 17.3 10.0 4.9 1.7 0.4 0.1



Individual Results

NCAA ChampionshipAdvances to RoundAve Finish Finishing Place
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25
Scott Fauble 99.3% 35.6 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.6 0.5 0.7 1.2 1.3 1.6 1.6 1.9 2.0 1.7 1.8 2.0 2.0 2.0 2.4 2.3 2.2
David Perry 94.8% 81.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1
William Kincaid 94.2% 100.1 0.0
Lars Erik Malde 94.1% 140.5
Jared Bassett 94.1% 172.2
Jacob Smith 94.2% 191.7
Charlie McDonald 94.1% 216.6


RegionalAve Finish Finishing Place
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25
Scott Fauble 4.5 0.3 20.6 21.9 15.4 9.7 5.8 4.8 3.5 2.5 2.2 1.8 1.3 1.2 0.9 1.0 0.9 0.5 0.6 0.5 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.3 0.3
David Perry 11.9 0.4 1.9 4.5 7.3 7.2 7.0 6.7 5.9 5.1 4.7 4.6 3.7 3.6 2.7 2.4 2.4 2.1 1.8 1.7 1.8 1.6 1.6 1.2
William Kincaid 16.1 0.0 0.2 1.0 2.3 3.8 4.5 5.0 5.4 5.3 4.9 5.1 4.4 4.0 3.8 3.1 2.8 2.9 2.5 2.4 2.1 2.2 1.6 1.7
Lars Erik Malde 28.0 0.1 0.2 0.5 0.7 1.0 1.8 2.1 2.9 2.4 2.8 2.9 2.9 2.6 3.5 3.2 2.6 3.2 3.0 2.6 2.3
Jared Bassett 41.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.4 0.3 0.6 0.6 1.1 1.2 1.3 1.4 1.7 1.8 1.8 1.9 2.0
Jacob Smith 48.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.7 0.5 0.7 0.7 1.2
Charlie McDonald 62.7 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1




NCAA Championship Selection Detail

Total
Region Finish Chance of Finishing Chance of Advancing Auto At Large Selection No Adv Auto At Large Region Finish
1 2 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13
1 13.0% 100.0% 13.0 13.0 1
2 28.8% 100.0% 28.8 28.8 2
3 23.9% 100.0% 0.2 5.3 7.4 5.9 3.2 1.3 0.4 0.1 0.1 0.0 23.9 3
4 17.3% 99.9% 0.1 2.0 4.0 2.9 2.9 1.7 1.0 0.8 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.6 0.0 17.3 4
5 10.0% 89.2% 0.0 0.6 1.2 1.2 1.4 0.7 0.6 0.6 0.8 0.8 0.9 1.1 8.9 5
6 4.9% 42.6% 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.4 0.4 0.4 2.8 2.1 6
7 1.7% 8.3% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.5 0.1 7
8 0.4% 5.3% 0.0 0.4 0.0 8
9 0.1% 0.1 9
10 10
11 11
12 12
13 13
14 14
15 15
16 16
17 17
18 18
19 19
20 20
21 21
22 22
23 23
24 24
25 25
26 26
27 27
28 28
29 29
30 30
31 31
32 32
Total 100% 94.1% 13.0 28.8 0.2 5.4 9.4 10.4 7.3 5.4 3.7 2.0 1.7 1.3 1.7 1.8 1.9 5.9 41.8 52.3




Points



At large teams are selected based on the number of wins (points) against teams already in the championships. As a result, advancement is predicated on accumulating enough points before the last at-large selection. Accordingly, the points below are the total number of wins against automatic qualifiers or teams selected in the at-large process before the last selection. Minimum, maximum, and average points are number seen in 5,000 simulations of the NCAA Tournament.



Received By BeatingChance ReceivedAverage If >0Average
Wisconsin 100.0% 1.0 1.0
Princeton 100.0% 1.0 1.0
Northern Arizona 99.9% 1.0 1.0
Georgia 99.2% 1.0 1.0
Indiana 98.6% 1.0 1.0
BYU 97.8% 1.0 1.0
Notre Dame 88.9% 1.0 0.9
Virginia 82.0% 1.0 0.8
Iowa State 53.5% 1.0 0.5
Texas A&M 52.7% 1.0 0.5
Kansas 41.8% 1.0 0.4
Arizona State 38.4% 1.0 0.4
North Carolina St. 20.7% 1.0 0.2
Minnesota 10.7% 1.0 0.1
Washington 7.0% 1.0 0.1
Dartmouth 5.0% 1.0 0.0
Missouri 4.6% 1.0 0.0
Illinois 2.5% 1.0 0.0
Penn State 0.8% 1.0 0.0
Cal Poly 0.7% 1.0 0.0
Michigan State 0.5% 1.0 0.0
Providence 0.4% 1.0 0.0
Harvard 0.3% 1.0 0.0
North Carolina 0.2% 1.0 0.0
Ohio State 0.0% 1.0 0.0
Cornell 0.0% 1.0 0.0
Total 10.1
Minimum 5.0
Maximum 15.0