Virginia
Men - Women
2011 - 2012 - 2013
Switch to All-time Team Page
RankNameGradeRating
22  Zach Gates SR 31:11
50  Kyle King FR 31:29
89  Thomas Porter SO 31:50
120  Connor Rog FR 31:57
133  Mark Amirault SR 31:59
308  Drew Paisley SO 32:29
313  Sean Keveren SR 32:30
455  Taylor Gilland JR 32:49
461  Jack St. Marie FR 32:50
852  Ed Schrom FR 33:32
National Rank #7 of 311
Southeast Region Rank #1 of 47
Chance of Advancing to Nationals 85.5%
Most Likely Finish 10th at Nationals


National Champion 0.1%
Top 5 at Nationals 7.4%
Top 10 at Nationals 34.2%
Top 20 at Nationals 76.9%


Regional Champion 47.0%
Top 5 in Regional 99.7%
Top 10 in Regional 100.0%
Top 20 in Regional 100.0%


Race Performance Ratings


Times listed are adjusted ratings based on performance compared to other runners in race.


RaceDateTeam Rating Zach Gates Kyle King Thomas Porter Connor Rog Mark Amirault Drew Paisley Sean Keveren Taylor Gilland Jack St. Marie Ed Schrom
Wisconsin adidas Invitational 10/12 699 31:30 31:52 32:33 32:30 32:56 33:25
ACC Championships 10/27 423 31:15 31:21 31:48 31:58 32:33 32:15 32:31 32:44 32:59 33:41
Southeast Region Championships 11/09 347 30:58 31:18 31:42 31:52 31:56 32:46
NCAA Championship 11/17 514 30:58 31:55 32:03 31:42 33:57 32:46





NCAA Tournament Simulation


Based on results of 5,000 simulations of the NCAA Tournament. Numbers in tables represent percentage of times each outcome occured during simulation.



Team Results

Advances to RoundAve FinishAve Score Finishing Place
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31
NCAA Championship 85.5% 12.6 370 0.1 0.4 1.2 2.4 3.2 4.0 4.7 5.9 5.8 6.5 6.2 5.7 5.9 4.7 4.2 4.0 3.7 3.4 2.5 2.3 2.0 1.7 1.4 1.1 0.7 0.6 0.5 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.1
Region Championship 100% 1.8 86 47.0 34.6 12.6 4.3 1.2 0.3



Individual Results

NCAA ChampionshipAdvances to RoundAve Finish Finishing Place
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25
Zach Gates 99.6% 24.6 0.1 0.1 0.6 1.1 1.4 1.8 2.3 2.6 3.1 3.1 3.0 2.5 3.4 3.0 2.9 3.1 2.6 2.4 2.4 2.4 2.3 2.3 2.2
Kyle King 93.1% 46.6 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.4 0.8 0.6 1.0 1.0 1.3 1.2 1.2 1.3 1.2 1.6
Thomas Porter 85.5% 85.7 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1
Mark Amirault 85.5% 110.6
Drew Paisley 85.5% 185.4
Sean Keveren 85.5% 186.4
Taylor Gilland 85.5% 221.4


RegionalAve Finish Finishing Place
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25
Zach Gates 3.9 3.8 14.5 18.9 15.1 10.3 8.2 6.4 5.0 4.0 3.0 2.0 1.6 1.5 0.9 0.8 0.8 0.6 0.5 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.3 0.1 0.1
Kyle King 7.7 0.2 1.3 4.0 8.2 10.1 10.9 9.6 8.1 8.1 7.1 5.7 3.9 3.5 3.0 2.6 1.7 1.7 1.7 1.2 1.2 0.8 0.7 0.6 0.7 0.4
Thomas Porter 13.9 0.1 0.2 0.6 2.0 2.9 4.4 6.1 6.2 7.0 7.1 7.5 6.3 5.7 5.2 4.5 3.5 3.0 2.7 2.4 2.5 2.4 1.7 1.4
Mark Amirault 17.9 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.6 1.5 2.1 2.9 4.2 5.9 5.5 6.4 5.9 5.5 5.0 4.8 4.6 3.9 3.2 3.3 3.0 2.8 2.3
Drew Paisley 37.2 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.5 0.7 1.1 1.2 1.9 2.0 2.7 2.6 2.9
Sean Keveren 37.1 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.6 0.6 1.2 1.3 1.5 1.7 2.3 2.9 2.6
Taylor Gilland 55.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2




NCAA Championship Selection Detail

Total
Region Finish Chance of Finishing Chance of Advancing Auto At Large Selection No Adv Auto At Large Region Finish
1 2 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13
1 47.0% 100.0% 47.0 47.0 1
2 34.6% 100.0% 34.6 34.6 2
3 12.6% 26.6% 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.5 0.4 0.2 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.3 9.2 3.3 3
4 4.3% 9.3% 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.1 3.9 0.4 4
5 1.2% 10.2% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.1 0.1 5
6 0.3% 6.3% 0.0 0.3 0.0 6
7 7
8 8
9 9
10 10
11 11
12 12
13 13
14 14
15 15
16 16
17 17
18 18
19 19
20 20
21 21
22 22
23 23
24 24
25 25
26 26
27 27
28 28
29 29
30 30
31 31
32 32
33 33
34 34
35 35
36 36
37 37
38 38
39 39
40 40
41 41
42 42
43 43
44 44
45 45
46 46
47 47
Total 100% 85.5% 47.0 34.6 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.5 0.4 0.3 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.4 14.5 81.6 3.9




Points



At large teams are selected based on the number of wins (points) against teams already in the championships. As a result, advancement is predicated on accumulating enough points before the last at-large selection. Accordingly, the points below are the total number of wins against automatic qualifiers or teams selected in the at-large process before the last selection. Minimum, maximum, and average points are number seen in 5,000 simulations of the NCAA Tournament.



Received By BeatingChance ReceivedAverage If >0Average
Florida State 100.0% 1.0 1.0
North Carolina St. 20.7% 1.0 0.2
Duke 11.7% 1.0 0.1
Dartmouth 5.0% 1.0 0.0
Missouri 4.6% 1.0 0.0
Penn State 0.8% 1.0 0.0
Cal Poly 0.7% 1.0 0.0
Michigan State 0.5% 1.0 0.0
Providence 0.4% 1.0 0.0
Harvard 0.3% 1.0 0.0
North Carolina 0.2% 2.0 0.0
Cornell 0.0% 1.0 0.0
Ohio State 0.0% 1.0 0.0
Total 1.5
Minimum 1.0
Maximum 4.0