Washington
Men - Women
2011 - 2012 - 2013
Switch to All-time Team Page
RankNameGradeRating
75  Joey Bywater SR 31:46
189  Rob Webster Jr. SR 32:12
231  Aaron Nelson SO 32:18
244  Aaron Beattie SO 32:19
339  Tyler King FR 32:33
695  Taylor Carlson JR 33:16
697  Gareth Gilna JR 33:16
704  Bryan Tibaduiza JR 33:17
781  Michael Miller JR 33:26
1,131  Angelo Comeaux FR 33:58
1,525  Kyle Rae 34:31
National Rank #35 of 311
West Region Rank #7 of 32
Chance of Advancing to Nationals 24.5%
Most Likely Finish 6th at Regional


National Champion 0.0%
Top 5 at Nationals 0.0%
Top 10 at Nationals 0.5%
Top 20 at Nationals 5.4%


Regional Champion 0.7%
Top 5 in Regional 37.0%
Top 10 in Regional 99.4%
Top 20 in Regional 100.0%


Race Performance Ratings


Times listed are adjusted ratings based on performance compared to other runners in race.


RaceDateTeam Rating Joey Bywater Rob Webster Jr. Aaron Nelson Aaron Beattie Tyler King Taylor Carlson Gareth Gilna Bryan Tibaduiza Michael Miller Angelo Comeaux Kyle Rae
Oregon Dellinger Invitational 09/29 877 31:57 32:50 32:37 34:13 33:06 34:42 32:41 33:46 33:57 33:57
Wisconsin adidas Invitational 10/12 652 31:43 31:55 32:26 32:08 32:34 32:49 33:44
Pac-12 Championships 10/27 589 31:43 32:07 32:05 32:16 32:01 34:32 33:12 33:21 32:32 35:16
West Region Championships 11/09 687 31:45 32:11 32:25 32:21 32:21 32:35 33:46
NCAA Championship 11/17 31:42





NCAA Tournament Simulation


Based on results of 5,000 simulations of the NCAA Tournament. Numbers in tables represent percentage of times each outcome occured during simulation.



Team Results

Advances to RoundAve FinishAve Score Finishing Place
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31
NCAA Championship 24.5% 24.4 564 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.5 0.5 0.7 0.6 0.7 1.0 1.2 1.1 1.4 1.5 1.6 1.9 1.7 2.2 2.0 2.1 2.3
Region Championship 100% 6.0 181 0.7 2.3 5.8 9.9 18.3 26.5 18.8 11.0 4.1 2.0 0.5 0.1 0.1 0.0



Individual Results

NCAA ChampionshipAdvances to RoundAve Finish Finishing Place
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25
Joey Bywater 65.8% 75.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.2 0.1
Rob Webster Jr. 26.9% 128.1
Aaron Nelson 25.3% 141.6
Aaron Beattie 24.9% 147.9
Tyler King 24.5% 182.4
Taylor Carlson 24.8% 241.6
Gareth Gilna 24.7% 240.9


RegionalAve Finish Finishing Place
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25
Joey Bywater 10.8 0.7 2.8 6.2 6.9 8.8 8.2 6.8 6.0 4.6 4.8 3.8 3.5 3.5 2.9 2.3 2.2 1.9 1.5 1.5 1.7 1.4 1.1 1.4
Rob Webster Jr. 29.0 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.5 0.7 0.9 1.5 1.6 1.8 2.2 2.7 2.5 2.9 2.7 2.6 2.9 3.0 2.7 3.1 2.4 2.6
Aaron Nelson 34.7 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.5 0.5 1.0 1.3 1.7 1.8 1.7 2.2 2.3 2.2 2.6 2.7 2.7 2.2 2.0
Aaron Beattie 36.4 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.6 0.6 0.8 1.2 1.5 1.9 1.8 1.6 1.7 2.2 2.0 2.6 2.6 2.3
Tyler King 50.9 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.6 0.4 0.9
Taylor Carlson 91.9
Gareth Gilna 92.1




NCAA Championship Selection Detail

Total
Region Finish Chance of Finishing Chance of Advancing Auto At Large Selection No Adv Auto At Large Region Finish
1 2 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13
1 0.7% 100.0% 0.7 0.7 1
2 2.3% 100.0% 2.3 2.3 2
3 5.8% 86.3% 0.1 0.6 0.8 0.5 0.5 0.3 0.3 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.5 0.6 0.4 0.8 5.0 3
4 9.9% 69.2% 0.0 0.4 0.9 0.7 0.7 0.6 0.4 0.7 0.4 0.4 0.8 0.7 3.0 6.8 4
5 18.3% 35.7% 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 1.0 1.0 1.6 1.8 11.7 6.5 5
6 26.5% 10.2% 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.4 1.8 23.8 2.7 6
7 18.8% 2.4% 0.0 0.1 0.3 18.4 0.5 7
8 11.0% 11.0 8
9 4.1% 4.1 9
10 2.0% 2.0 10
11 0.5% 0.5 11
12 0.1% 0.1 12
13 0.1% 0.1 13
14 0.0% 0.0 14
15 15
16 16
17 17
18 18
19 19
20 20
21 21
22 22
23 23
24 24
25 25
26 26
27 27
28 28
29 29
30 30
31 31
32 32
Total 100% 24.5% 0.7 2.3 0.1 0.6 1.2 1.5 1.3 1.2 1.1 0.8 1.1 1.7 2.3 3.5 5.1 75.5 3.0 21.5




Points



At large teams are selected based on the number of wins (points) against teams already in the championships. As a result, advancement is predicated on accumulating enough points before the last at-large selection. Accordingly, the points below are the total number of wins against automatic qualifiers or teams selected in the at-large process before the last selection. Minimum, maximum, and average points are number seen in 5,000 simulations of the NCAA Tournament.



Received By BeatingChance ReceivedAverage If >0Average
Notre Dame 88.9% 1.0 0.9
Virginia 82.0% 1.0 0.8
North Carolina St. 20.7% 1.0 0.2
Dartmouth 5.0% 1.0 0.0
Missouri 4.6% 1.0 0.0
Illinois 2.5% 1.0 0.0
Penn State 0.8% 1.0 0.0
Cal Poly 0.7% 1.0 0.0
Washington St. 0.5% 1.0 0.0
Michigan State 0.5% 1.0 0.0
Providence 0.4% 1.0 0.0
Harvard 0.3% 1.0 0.0
North Carolina 0.2% 1.0 0.0
Cornell 0.0% 1.0 0.0
Ohio State 0.0% 1.0 0.0
Total 2.1
Minimum 0.0
Maximum 5.0