Wisconsin
Men - Women
2011 - 2012 - 2013
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RankNameGradeRating
10  Mohammed Ahmed SR 30:53
12  Maverick Darling SR 31:00
14  Reed Connor SR 31:01
81  Robert Finnerty SR 31:47
232  Jake Erschen SO 32:18
235  Alex Hatz SO 32:18
262  Alex Brill JR 32:22
359  Michael VanVoorhis SO 32:36
538  Jacob Naylor JR 33:00
649  Sam Hacker FR 33:12
774  Jack Stapleton FR 33:25
804  Michael Brice JR 33:28
898  Danny Buechel SR 33:37
1,290  Matt McKenna SO 34:11
1,366  Neal Berman JR 34:17
National Rank #3 of 311
Great Lakes Region Rank #1 of 30
Chance of Advancing to Nationals 100.0%
Most Likely Finish 3rd at Nationals


National Champion 2.0%
Top 5 at Nationals 63.8%
Top 10 at Nationals 93.9%
Top 20 at Nationals 99.8%


Regional Champion 89.0%
Top 5 in Regional 100.0%
Top 10 in Regional 100.0%
Top 20 in Regional 100.0%


Race Performance Ratings


Times listed are adjusted ratings based on performance compared to other runners in race.


RaceDateTeam Rating Mohammed Ahmed Maverick Darling Reed Connor Robert Finnerty Jake Erschen Alex Hatz Alex Brill Michael VanVoorhis Jacob Naylor Sam Hacker Jack Stapleton
Sean Earl Loyola Lakefront Invitational 09/29 867 32:17 32:09 32:20 33:08 33:19 33:25
Wisconsin adidas Invitational 10/12 588 31:04 31:53 32:05 32:51 32:34
Big Ten Championships 10/28 335 31:13 31:12 31:29 31:48 32:21 32:03 32:38 33:05
Great Lakes Region Championships 11/09 344 31:07 31:17 31:23 32:00 32:52 32:00 32:49
NCAA Championship 11/17 192 30:33 30:40 30:41 31:27 32:05 33:07 33:00





NCAA Tournament Simulation


Based on results of 5,000 simulations of the NCAA Tournament. Numbers in tables represent percentage of times each outcome occured during simulation.



Team Results

Advances to RoundAve FinishAve Score Finishing Place
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31
NCAA Championship 100% 5.2 233 2.0 13.7 17.6 16.7 13.8 10.6 7.2 5.4 4.1 2.8 1.9 1.2 1.0 0.6 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0
Region Championship 100% 1.1 43 89.0 9.6 1.3 0.1



Individual Results

NCAA ChampionshipAdvances to RoundAve Finish Finishing Place
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25
Mohammed Ahmed 100% 11.1 0.0 0.2 1.4 4.2 5.9 6.9 7.6 6.9 6.1 5.9 4.5 4.0 3.3 3.2 2.8 2.6 2.4 2.1 1.7 1.8 1.4 1.5 1.8 1.4 1.2
Maverick Darling 100% 15.4 0.0 0.2 1.6 2.8 4.4 4.3 5.5 5.8 4.7 4.4 4.0 3.9 3.4 3.4 3.3 2.6 2.8 2.1 2.4 2.0 2.1 1.9 1.5 1.7
Reed Connor 100% 16.1 0.0 0.2 1.0 2.3 3.6 5.0 4.8 4.7 5.1 5.6 4.3 4.0 3.3 3.2 2.7 3.2 2.7 2.4 2.6 2.1 2.2 1.8 1.6 1.6
Robert Finnerty 100% 82.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1
Alex Hatz 100% 162.4
Alex Brill 100% 171.4
Michael VanVoorhis 100% 201.8


RegionalAve Finish Finishing Place
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25
Mohammed Ahmed 1.6 38.6 20.2 14.5 10.0 6.7 4.4 2.2 1.2 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.1 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Maverick Darling 2.4 16.7 25.2 19.6 13.7 9.6 5.6 3.6 1.8 1.1 0.7 0.7 0.4 0.2 0.3 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Reed Connor 2.5 17.4 22.5 19.9 13.9 9.6 6.2 4.2 2.0 1.3 0.7 0.5 0.5 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0
Robert Finnerty 9.5 0.1 0.9 3.2 6.9 10.9 12.4 10.8 9.4 6.7 5.0 4.9 3.5 2.9 2.4 1.9 1.6 1.8 1.5 1.1 1.1 1.1 0.8 0.6
Alex Hatz 23.9 0.0 0.3 0.7 1.7 2.2 3.1 3.5 3.9 3.6 4.1 3.7 4.2 3.4 3.1 3.3 3.5 3.2 2.6 2.5
Alex Brill 26.6 0.1 0.1 0.6 0.6 1.4 1.7 2.7 2.6 3.3 3.1 3.3 3.3 3.3 3.7 4.0 3.1 3.2 2.9 2.7
Michael VanVoorhis 37.9 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.9 1.0 1.1 1.3 1.3 1.5 2.0 2.2 2.0 2.5




NCAA Championship Selection Detail

Total
Region Finish Chance of Finishing Chance of Advancing Auto At Large Selection No Adv Auto At Large Region Finish
1 2 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13
1 89.0% 100.0% 89.0 89.0 1
2 9.6% 100.0% 9.6 9.6 2
3 1.3% 100.0% 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.0 1.3 3
4 0.1% 100.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 4
5 5
6 6
7 7
8 8
9 9
10 10
11 11
12 12
13 13
14 14
15 15
16 16
17 17
18 18
19 19
20 20
21 21
22 22
23 23
24 24
25 25
26 26
27 27
28 28
29 29
30 30
Total 100% 100.0% 89.0 9.6 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 98.6 1.4




Points



At large teams are selected based on the number of wins (points) against teams already in the championships. As a result, advancement is predicated on accumulating enough points before the last at-large selection. Accordingly, the points below are the total number of wins against automatic qualifiers or teams selected in the at-large process before the last selection. Minimum, maximum, and average points are number seen in 5,000 simulations of the NCAA Tournament.



Received By BeatingChance ReceivedAverage If >0Average
Michigan 99.8% 1.0 1.0
Georgia 99.2% 1.0 1.0
Indiana 98.6% 1.0 1.0
Notre Dame 88.9% 1.0 0.9
Virginia 82.0% 1.0 0.8
Texas A&M 52.7% 1.0 0.5
Kansas 41.8% 1.0 0.4
Arizona State 38.4% 1.0 0.4
North Carolina St. 20.7% 1.0 0.2
Minnesota 10.7% 2.0 0.2
Washington 7.0% 1.0 0.1
Dartmouth 5.0% 1.0 0.0
Missouri 4.6% 1.0 0.0
Illinois 2.5% 2.0 0.1
Penn State 0.8% 2.0 0.0
Cal Poly 0.7% 1.0 0.0
Michigan State 0.5% 2.0 0.0
Providence 0.4% 1.0 0.0
Harvard 0.3% 1.0 0.0
North Carolina 0.2% 1.0 0.0
Cornell 0.0% 1.0 0.0
Ohio State 0.0% 2.0 0.0
Total 6.7
Minimum 2.0
Maximum 14.0