Butler
Men - Women
2012 - 2013 - 2014
Switch to All-time Team Page
RankNameGradeRating
58  Tom Curr JR 31:38
99  Erik Peterson SO 31:50
206  Tom Anderson SR 32:13
343  Harry Ellis JR 32:39
430  James Martin SO 32:50
826  Chris Kelsey SO 33:35
896  Luke Zygmunt FR 33:43
1,172  Keigan Culler SO 34:06
1,652  Kirby Lawson FR 34:45
National Rank #30 of 311
Great Lakes Region Rank #5 of 30
Chance of Advancing to Nationals 20.6%
Most Likely Finish 5th at Regional


National Champion 0.0%
Top 5 at Nationals 0.0%
Top 10 at Nationals 0.2%
Top 20 at Nationals 4.9%


Regional Champion 0.2%
Top 5 in Regional 75.6%
Top 10 in Regional 100.0%
Top 20 in Regional 100.0%


Race Performance Ratings


Times listed are adjusted ratings based on performance compared to other runners in race.


RaceDateTeam Rating Tom Curr Erik Peterson Tom Anderson Harry Ellis James Martin Chris Kelsey Luke Zygmunt Keigan Culler Kirby Lawson
Notre Dame Invitational (Blue) 10/04 905 33:47 31:46 32:53 32:40 35:21 32:58 34:05
Pre-National Invitational (Blue) 10/19 648 31:15 31:56 31:38 33:03 33:16 34:08 33:50
Big East Championships 11/02 648 31:28 31:52 31:58 32:48 32:51 33:10 33:49 34:25 34:46
Great Lakes Region Championships 11/15 716 31:45 31:50 32:36 32:28 32:49 33:39 33:43
NCAA Championship 11/23 31:18





NCAA Tournament Simulation


Based on results of 5,000 simulations of the NCAA Tournament. Numbers in tables represent percentage of times each outcome occured during simulation.



Team Results

Advances to RoundAve FinishAve Score Finishing Place
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31
NCAA Championship 20.6% 23.5 537 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.7 0.8 1.1 1.2 1.2 1.7 1.6 1.9 2.0 1.8 1.7 1.4 0.8 0.4
Region Championship 100% 5.0 140 0.2 1.2 3.9 17.3 53.1 18.6 4.6 1.1 0.2



Individual Results

NCAA ChampionshipAdvances to RoundAve Finish Finishing Place
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25
Tom Curr 86.8% 64.8 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.1 0.4 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.6 0.5 0.7 0.8 0.7 0.7 1.0
Erik Peterson 54.4% 85.5 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0
Tom Anderson 24.7% 127.9
Harry Ellis 20.6% 186.1
James Martin 20.6% 204.6
Chris Kelsey 20.7% 242.4
Luke Zygmunt 20.9% 245.1


RegionalAve Finish Finishing Place
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25
Tom Curr 8.4 1.7 4.2 5.3 7.0 7.5 7.5 6.9 7.2 6.7 6.1 5.1 4.3 4.2 3.6 3.1 2.9 2.1 2.1 1.7 1.5 1.2 0.8 0.7 0.8 0.8
Erik Peterson 12.9 0.1 0.5 1.1 1.9 3.1 3.8 4.4 5.5 6.6 5.9 5.7 6.3 6.0 6.0 5.5 4.5 3.8 3.6 3.1 2.6 2.3 2.3 1.9 1.8 1.4
Tom Anderson 22.3 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.5 1.0 1.6 2.4 2.9 3.5 3.9 5.1 4.8 4.9 4.5 4.8 4.6 3.8 3.9 4.0 3.9
Harry Ellis 38.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.4 0.6 0.9 1.1 1.4 1.9 2.2
James Martin 46.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.5 0.6
Chris Kelsey 79.6
Luke Zygmunt 85.1




NCAA Championship Selection Detail

Total
Region Finish Chance of Finishing Chance of Advancing Auto At Large Selection No Adv Auto At Large Region Finish
1 2 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13
1 0.2% 100.0% 0.2 0.2 1
2 1.2% 100.0% 1.2 1.2 2
3 3.9% 96.4% 0.0 0.2 0.7 0.7 0.8 0.6 0.4 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 3.8 3
4 17.3% 85.7% 0.1 0.5 1.7 3.2 3.4 2.5 1.7 0.9 0.6 0.1 0.1 0.0 2.5 14.8 4
5 53.1% 1.1% 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.5 52.5 0.6 5
6 18.6% 0.2% 0.0 18.5 0.0 6
7 4.6% 4.6 7
8 1.1% 1.1 8
9 0.2% 0.2 9
10 10
11 11
12 12
13 13
14 14
15 15
16 16
17 17
18 18
19 19
20 20
21 21
22 22
23 23
24 24
25 25
26 26
27 27
28 28
29 29
30 30
Total 100% 20.6% 0.2 1.2 0.0 0.3 1.2 2.4 4.1 3.9 2.9 1.8 1.0 0.6 0.2 0.1 0.6 79.4 1.3 19.2




Points



At large teams are selected based on the number of wins (points) against teams already in the championships. As a result, advancement is predicated on accumulating enough points before the last at-large selection. Accordingly, the points below are the total number of wins against automatic qualifiers or teams selected in the at-large process before the last selection. Minimum, maximum, and average points are number seen in 5,000 simulations of the NCAA Tournament.



Received By BeatingChance ReceivedAverage If >0Average
Florida State 67.8% 1.0 0.7
Georgetown 17.7% 1.0 0.2
Duke 1.2% 1.0 0.0
Virginia Tech 1.2% 1.0 0.0
Lamar 0.2% 1.0 0.0
Penn State 0.2% 1.0 0.0
Lipscomb 0.1% 2.0 0.0
Kansas 0.0% 1.0 0.0
Cal Poly 0.0% 1.0 0.0
Georgia Tech 0.0% 1.0 0.0
Total 0.9
Minimum 0.0
Maximum 3.0