Colorado
Men - Women
2012 - 2013 - 2014
Switch to All-time Team Page
RankNameGradeRating
9  Ben Saarel FR 31:06
23  Morgan Pearson SO 31:17
27  Blake Theroux SR 31:20
37  Pierce Murphy SO 31:25
68  Connor Winter JR 31:41
92  Ammar Moussa SO 31:49
223  Zach Perrin FR 32:17
324  Dillon Shije SR 32:37
423  David Kilgore JR 32:49
National Rank #1 of 311
Mountain Region Rank #1 of 18
Chance of Advancing to Nationals 100.0%
Most Likely Finish 1st at Nationals


National Champion 46.9%
Top 5 at Nationals 91.8%
Top 10 at Nationals 98.5%
Top 20 at Nationals 99.9%


Regional Champion 61.3%
Top 5 in Regional 100.0%
Top 10 in Regional 100.0%
Top 20 in Regional 100.0%


Race Performance Ratings


Times listed are adjusted ratings based on performance compared to other runners in race.


RaceDateTeam Rating Ben Saarel Morgan Pearson Blake Theroux Pierce Murphy Connor Winter Ammar Moussa Zach Perrin Dillon Shije David Kilgore
28th Annual Rocky Mountain Shootout 09/28 583 31:31 31:41 31:58 32:18 32:50
Pre-National Invitational (Blue) 10/19 282 31:16 31:15 31:32 31:36 31:39 32:03 32:38
Pac-12 Championships 11/02 121 30:57 31:58 30:50 31:06 30:52 31:24 32:40 32:15 32:49
Mountain Region Championships 11/15 358 31:32 31:39 31:54 31:31 31:37 31:54 33:35
NCAA Championship 11/23 192 30:46 30:57 31:06 31:17 32:36 31:50 31:56





NCAA Tournament Simulation


Based on results of 5,000 simulations of the NCAA Tournament. Numbers in tables represent percentage of times each outcome occured during simulation.



Team Results

Advances to RoundAve FinishAve Score Finishing Place
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31
NCAA Championship 100% 2.5 159 46.9 21.0 12.4 6.8 4.6 2.6 1.7 1.0 0.7 0.7 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Region Championship 100% 1.6 56 61.3 24.4 12.1 2.0 0.2 0.0



Individual Results

NCAA ChampionshipAdvances to RoundAve Finish Finishing Place
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25
Ben Saarel 100% 14.4 0.2 1.2 2.2 4.1 4.9 4.8 5.1 4.8 4.7 3.7 4.0 3.1 3.1 2.8 2.9 2.5 1.9 2.0 1.7 1.8 1.6 1.7 1.5 1.4 1.3
Morgan Pearson 100% 27.6 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.7 0.8 1.5 1.5 2.0 2.3 2.4 2.1 2.5 2.7 2.5 2.4 2.6 2.4 2.5 2.3 2.4 2.2 2.0 1.9 1.5 1.9
Blake Theroux 100% 30.3 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.5 0.7 1.3 1.6 1.3 2.0 2.3 2.1 2.5 2.0 2.5 2.3 2.4 2.2 2.2 2.1 2.4 2.1 2.0 2.0 2.2
Pierce Murphy 100% 37.4 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.8 0.9 1.2 1.1 1.5 1.5 1.7 2.1 1.9 2.0 1.9 1.7 2.3 2.1 2.0 2.0 1.5
Connor Winter 100% 69.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.4 0.5
Ammar Moussa 100% 86.6 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.1
Zach Perrin 100% 154.9


RegionalAve Finish Finishing Place
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25
Ben Saarel 4.3 2.6 16.5 16.3 12.0 9.1 7.6 5.8 4.9 3.9 3.2 2.8 2.1 2.1 1.7 1.1 1.1 1.4 1.0 0.8 0.5 0.5 0.3 0.5 0.4 0.2
Morgan Pearson 7.2 0.3 3.6 8.2 9.5 9.9 8.8 8.4 6.1 6.2 5.3 4.8 3.3 3.3 2.8 2.4 2.1 1.7 1.7 1.2 1.1 1.1 0.8 1.0 1.0 0.6
Blake Theroux 8.4 0.1 1.8 4.8 7.9 8.9 8.8 7.4 7.5 6.6 5.8 5.1 4.2 3.9 2.8 3.0 2.7 2.0 1.8 1.8 1.5 1.3 1.2 1.0 0.8 1.0
Pierce Murphy 10.3 0.1 0.4 2.0 4.3 6.2 7.2 7.6 7.6 6.3 6.7 5.3 5.4 4.2 4.3 3.7 2.8 2.7 2.2 1.7 1.9 2.0 1.7 1.2 1.6 1.1
Connor Winter 17.1 0.1 0.4 0.9 1.4 2.7 3.9 4.3 4.8 5.4 5.8 4.6 5.2 5.5 4.6 3.4 3.8 3.4 3.5 3.0 2.7 2.4 2.3
Ammar Moussa 21.2 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.6 1.2 1.8 2.3 3.4 3.9 4.6 4.5 4.8 4.7 5.0 4.6 4.1 3.3 3.8 3.1 3.4 2.7
Zach Perrin 39.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.5 0.9 0.8 1.1 1.3 1.3 1.8




NCAA Championship Selection Detail

Total
Region Finish Chance of Finishing Chance of Advancing Auto At Large Selection No Adv Auto At Large Region Finish
1 2 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13
1 61.3% 100.0% 61.3 61.3 1
2 24.4% 100.0% 24.4 24.4 2
3 12.1% 100.0% 0.9 2.3 2.6 2.1 1.7 1.0 0.7 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 12.1 3
4 2.0% 100.0% 0.1 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.3 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 2.0 4
5 0.2% 100.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 5
6 0.0% 100.0% 0.0 0.0 6
7 7
8 8
9 9
10 10
11 11
12 12
13 13
14 14
15 15
16 16
17 17
18 18
Total 100% 100.0% 61.3 24.4 0.9 2.4 3.0 2.4 2.0 1.2 1.0 0.5 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 85.7 14.3




Points



At large teams are selected based on the number of wins (points) against teams already in the championships. As a result, advancement is predicated on accumulating enough points before the last at-large selection. Accordingly, the points below are the total number of wins against automatic qualifiers or teams selected in the at-large process before the last selection. Minimum, maximum, and average points are number seen in 5,000 simulations of the NCAA Tournament.



Received By BeatingChance ReceivedAverage If >0Average
Oregon 99.9% 2.0 2.0
Princeton 98.3% 1.0 1.0
Tulsa 95.9% 1.0 1.0
Iona 91.1% 1.0 0.9
Stanford 78.1% 2.0 1.6
Florida State 67.8% 1.0 0.7
Washington 10.2% 1.0 0.1
Arizona State 8.9% 1.0 0.1
Southern Utah 6.7% 1.0 0.1
Oklahoma 4.4% 1.0 0.0
Boise State 3.3% 1.0 0.0
Butler 1.4% 1.0 0.0
Duke 1.2% 1.0 0.0
Virginia Tech 1.2% 1.0 0.0
UCLA 0.4% 1.0 0.0
Lamar 0.2% 1.0 0.0
Penn State 0.2% 1.0 0.0
Lipscomb 0.1% 1.0 0.0
Kansas 0.0% 1.0 0.0
Cal Poly 0.0% 1.0 0.0
Georgia Tech 0.0% 1.0 0.0
Total 7.5
Minimum 2.0
Maximum 12.0