Indiana
Men - Women
2012 - 2013 - 2014
Switch to All-time Team Page
RankNameGradeRating
64  Carl Smith FR 31:40
66  Jason Crist FR 31:40
78  Evan Esselink JR 31:44
88  Matthew Schwartzer SO 31:48
219  JR Ricker JR 32:16
239  Robby Nierman SR 32:20
251  Rorey Hunter SO 32:24
353  Thomas - Jeremy Coughler FR 32:40
462  Nolan Fife JR 32:55
476  Kyle Overway SO 32:57
589  Owen Skeete SO 33:09
596  Joshua Roche SO 33:10
749  Tyeson Mundy FR 33:28
1,114  Jordan Gornall SO 34:01
National Rank #10 of 311
Great Lakes Region Rank #2 of 30
Chance of Advancing to Nationals 99.8%
Most Likely Finish 9th at Nationals


National Champion 0.7%
Top 5 at Nationals 14.6%
Top 10 at Nationals 45.4%
Top 20 at Nationals 85.8%


Regional Champion 42.8%
Top 5 in Regional 99.9%
Top 10 in Regional 100.0%
Top 20 in Regional 100.0%


Race Performance Ratings


Times listed are adjusted ratings based on performance compared to other runners in race.


RaceDateTeam Rating Carl Smith Jason Crist Evan Esselink Matthew Schwartzer JR Ricker Robby Nierman Rorey Hunter Thomas - Jeremy Coughler Nolan Fife Kyle Overway Owen Skeete
Wisconsin adidas Invitational 10/19 663 31:41 31:47 32:26 32:31 32:27 32:38 33:07
Pre-National Invitational (Blue) 10/19 865 32:04 31:57 32:58 33:10
Big Ten Championships 11/03 437 31:45 31:32 32:07 31:47 32:18 32:12 31:45 32:23 32:44
Great Lakes Region Championships 11/15 423 31:44 31:42 31:41 31:45 31:54 32:06 33:17
NCAA Championship 11/23 389 31:28 31:26 31:24 31:42 32:25 32:36 33:02





NCAA Tournament Simulation


Based on results of 5,000 simulations of the NCAA Tournament. Numbers in tables represent percentage of times each outcome occured during simulation.



Team Results

Advances to RoundAve FinishAve Score Finishing Place
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31
NCAA Championship 99.8% 12.4 361 0.7 1.6 2.5 4.1 5.7 5.9 6.0 6.4 6.9 5.5 6.0 4.8 4.5 4.8 4.5 3.6 3.3 3.5 2.8 2.8 2.8 2.5 2.0 2.1 1.5 1.1 0.8 0.7 0.4 0.2
Region Championship 100% 1.9 68 42.8 30.2 18.7 6.9 1.3 0.1



Individual Results

NCAA ChampionshipAdvances to RoundAve Finish Finishing Place
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25
Carl Smith 99.9% 65.3 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.8 0.7 0.6
Jason Crist 99.9% 67.4 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.6 0.3 0.6 0.6 0.7 0.5
Evan Esselink 99.9% 76.5 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.4
Matthew Schwartzer 99.9% 83.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.4
JR Ricker 99.8% 154.9
Robby Nierman 99.8% 163.0
Rorey Hunter 99.8% 170.0


RegionalAve Finish Finishing Place
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25
Carl Smith 9.0 1.2 3.3 4.7 6.6 7.3 7.3 7.1 6.7 5.6 6.5 6.0 5.1 3.9 3.9 3.2 3.2 2.3 2.3 2.2 1.7 1.1 1.1 1.0 1.1 0.8
Jason Crist 8.9 1.3 3.2 4.6 6.3 7.4 7.0 7.6 7.2 6.4 5.7 5.2 5.1 4.3 4.2 3.0 3.0 2.3 2.4 1.7 1.5 1.3 1.3 1.3 0.8 0.8
Evan Esselink 10.4 0.5 1.4 2.9 4.0 5.2 6.3 6.7 7.2 6.9 6.2 6.1 5.8 5.8 4.6 4.0 3.4 3.1 2.3 2.2 1.9 1.7 1.4 1.4 1.1 0.8
Matthew Schwartzer 11.6 0.2 0.5 1.3 2.8 3.8 5.1 6.2 6.2 6.7 7.0 6.8 6.0 6.0 4.9 4.7 3.9 3.5 2.9 2.7 2.2 2.0 1.6 2.0 1.1 1.1
JR Ricker 23.9 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.9 1.1 1.7 2.3 3.1 3.9 4.3 4.6 4.4 5.2 5.3 4.4 4.3 4.1 3.9
Robby Nierman 25.7 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.8 1.0 1.6 2.3 2.7 3.7 4.0 4.3 4.0 4.3 4.9 4.8 4.3 4.0
Rorey Hunter 28.3 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.5 0.9 1.2 1.7 2.5 2.9 3.2 3.9 4.0 3.7 4.5 4.1 4.1




NCAA Championship Selection Detail

Total
Region Finish Chance of Finishing Chance of Advancing Auto At Large Selection No Adv Auto At Large Region Finish
1 2 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13
1 42.8% 100.0% 42.8 42.8 1
2 30.2% 100.0% 30.2 30.2 2
3 18.7% 100.0% 0.1 0.4 2.0 3.4 3.6 3.2 2.3 1.9 0.8 0.6 0.2 0.2 18.7 3
4 6.9% 99.4% 0.0 0.1 0.6 0.8 1.0 1.3 1.2 0.9 0.6 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 6.8 4
5 1.3% 95.4% 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.4 0.2 0.2 0.0 0.1 1.2 5
6 0.1% 0.1 6
7 7
8 8
9 9
10 10
11 11
12 12
13 13
14 14
15 15
16 16
17 17
18 18
19 19
20 20
21 21
22 22
23 23
24 24
25 25
26 26
27 27
28 28
29 29
30 30
Total 100% 99.8% 42.8 30.2 0.1 0.5 2.1 4.0 4.5 4.3 3.7 3.3 2.0 1.4 0.5 0.3 0.1 0.2 73.0 26.8




Points



At large teams are selected based on the number of wins (points) against teams already in the championships. As a result, advancement is predicated on accumulating enough points before the last at-large selection. Accordingly, the points below are the total number of wins against automatic qualifiers or teams selected in the at-large process before the last selection. Minimum, maximum, and average points are number seen in 5,000 simulations of the NCAA Tournament.



Received By BeatingChance ReceivedAverage If >0Average
Texas 99.9% 1.0 1.0
Wisconsin 99.7% 1.0 1.0
Michigan 99.5% 1.0 1.0
Florida 59.3% 1.0 0.6
Georgia 55.0% 1.0 0.6
Dartmouth 23.0% 1.0 0.2
Georgetown 17.7% 1.0 0.2
Minnesota 17.1% 2.0 0.3
Arizona State 8.9% 1.0 0.1
Tennessee 7.8% 1.0 0.1
North Carolina St. 5.2% 1.0 0.1
Illinois 4.7% 2.0 0.1
UCLA 0.4% 1.0 0.0
Penn State 0.2% 1.0 0.0
Michigan State 0.1% 2.0 0.0
Louisville 0.0% 1.0 0.0
Missouri 0.0% 1.0 0.0
Total 5.2
Minimum 2.0
Maximum 12.0