Michigan
Men - Women
2012 - 2013 - 2014
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RankNameGradeRating
33  Mason Ferlic JR 31:24
101  Mark Beams SR 31:51
146  Morsi Rayyan SR 32:03
162  Ben Flanagan FR 32:08
231  August Pappas SO 32:19
255  Cory Glines FR 32:24
263  Nick Renberg FR 32:26
282  Connor Mora FR 32:29
354  James Yau JR 32:40
427  Tony Smoragiewicz SO 32:50
633  Nicholas Posada SO 33:15
693  Nathan Karr SR 33:21
737  Scotty Albaugh SO 33:27
816  George Kelly FR 33:34
924  Jeffrey Sattler SO 33:45
1,316  Alex Moran SO 34:17
1,752  Jarred Bratley FR 34:54
National Rank #20 of 311
Great Lakes Region Rank #3 of 30
Chance of Advancing to Nationals 99.6%
Most Likely Finish 17th at Nationals


National Champion 0.2%
Top 5 at Nationals 3.6%
Top 10 at Nationals 18.6%
Top 20 at Nationals 67.4%


Regional Champion 16.3%
Top 5 in Regional 99.7%
Top 10 in Regional 100.0%
Top 20 in Regional 100.0%


Race Performance Ratings


Times listed are adjusted ratings based on performance compared to other runners in race.


RaceDateTeam Rating Mason Ferlic Mark Beams Morsi Rayyan Ben Flanagan August Pappas Cory Glines Nick Renberg Connor Mora James Yau Tony Smoragiewicz Nicholas Posada
Cowboy Jamboree 09/28 714 31:53 32:19 32:19 32:22 32:20 32:25 32:28 32:34 32:50 33:29
Notre Dame Invitational (Blue) 10/04 1130 33:02
Wisconsin adidas Invitational 10/19 537 31:16 31:42 32:06 32:29 32:21 32:15 32:22 32:25 32:19
Big Ten Championships 11/03 511 31:47 31:59 31:50 31:51 32:05 32:31 32:32 32:51 33:04
Great Lakes Region Championships 11/15 420 31:12 31:35 31:40 31:59 32:10 32:30 32:25
NCAA Championship 11/23 540 31:05 31:46 32:22 31:51 33:06 32:49 32:33





NCAA Tournament Simulation


Based on results of 5,000 simulations of the NCAA Tournament. Numbers in tables represent percentage of times each outcome occured during simulation.



Team Results

Advances to RoundAve FinishAve Score Finishing Place
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31
NCAA Championship 99.6% 16.9 431 0.2 0.3 0.5 1.0 1.7 2.0 2.7 3.1 3.4 3.7 4.5 4.0 4.8 4.9 4.9 5.0 5.6 4.9 4.9 5.5 5.3 4.7 4.4 4.1 4.1 3.1 2.3 1.9 1.5 0.7 0.3
Region Championship 100% 2.7 82 16.3 27.5 34.5 17.7 3.7 0.3



Individual Results

NCAA ChampionshipAdvances to RoundAve Finish Finishing Place
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25
Mason Ferlic 99.9% 36.1 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.4 0.6 0.7 1.1 1.3 1.4 1.5 1.6 1.7 1.6 1.8 2.1 1.7 1.8 2.1 2.0 1.9 1.7 2.0 2.2
Mark Beams 99.6% 91.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.1
Morsi Rayyan 99.6% 123.5 0.0
Ben Flanagan 99.6% 134.8
August Pappas 99.6% 159.7
Cory Glines 99.6% 172.7
Nick Renberg 99.6% 175.9


RegionalAve Finish Finishing Place
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25
Mason Ferlic 4.2 12.2 13.6 12.8 9.6 7.8 6.5 5.1 5.1 4.3 3.7 3.1 2.6 2.3 1.9 1.6 1.2 1.2 0.8 0.6 0.8 0.7 0.5 0.2 0.2 0.3
Mark Beams 12.8 0.2 0.3 1.0 2.0 3.0 4.3 4.4 5.2 6.3 6.5 6.0 6.0 6.3 5.2 4.8 4.9 3.6 3.5 3.5 2.3 2.2 2.0 2.0 1.4 1.4
Morsi Rayyan 17.4 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.7 1.3 1.8 2.6 3.7 4.7 4.9 5.2 5.9 6.3 5.5 5.0 4.9 4.4 4.2 4.1 3.3 2.6 2.7 2.3
Ben Flanagan 19.5 0.1 0.1 0.4 0.8 1.3 1.8 2.4 3.9 4.0 5.1 5.7 5.7 5.5 5.4 5.2 4.8 4.3 3.7 3.8 2.7 3.1
August Pappas 25.1 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 1.0 1.3 1.9 2.5 2.9 4.0 3.5 4.7 4.3 4.7 5.1 4.6 4.1 4.3
Cory Glines 28.6 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.7 1.3 1.8 2.1 2.7 2.8 3.7 3.4 4.2 4.6 4.0 4.2
Nick Renberg 29.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.5 0.6 1.5 1.6 2.0 3.1 3.1 3.6 4.5 4.1 4.7 5.0




NCAA Championship Selection Detail

Total
Region Finish Chance of Finishing Chance of Advancing Auto At Large Selection No Adv Auto At Large Region Finish
1 2 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13
1 16.3% 100.0% 16.3 16.3 1
2 27.5% 100.0% 27.5 27.5 2
3 34.5% 100.0% 0.5 2.2 6.1 9.5 8.0 5.0 2.2 0.6 0.3 0.0 34.5 3
4 17.7% 99.9% 0.2 0.8 2.3 4.0 4.3 2.5 1.7 1.1 0.4 0.3 0.1 0.1 0.0 17.7 4
5 3.7% 97.8% 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.9 0.8 0.6 0.3 0.3 0.1 0.1 0.1 3.6 5
6 0.3% 0.3 6
7 7
8 8
9 9
10 10
11 11
12 12
13 13
14 14
15 15
16 16
17 17
18 18
19 19
20 20
21 21
22 22
23 23
24 24
25 25
26 26
27 27
28 28
29 29
30 30
Total 100% 99.6% 16.3 27.5 0.5 2.4 7.0 12.0 12.3 10.2 5.5 2.9 1.7 0.7 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.4 43.8 55.8




Points



At large teams are selected based on the number of wins (points) against teams already in the championships. As a result, advancement is predicated on accumulating enough points before the last at-large selection. Accordingly, the points below are the total number of wins against automatic qualifiers or teams selected in the at-large process before the last selection. Minimum, maximum, and average points are number seen in 5,000 simulations of the NCAA Tournament.



Received By BeatingChance ReceivedAverage If >0Average
Texas 99.9% 1.0 1.0
Wisconsin 99.7% 1.0 1.0
Indiana 99.6% 1.0 1.0
Eastern Kentucky 99.4% 1.0 1.0
North Carolina 96.8% 1.0 1.0
Notre Dame 95.9% 1.0 1.0
Providence 91.6% 1.0 0.9
Air Force 68.6% 1.0 0.7
Harvard 65.7% 1.0 0.7
Florida 59.3% 1.0 0.6
Georgia 55.0% 1.0 0.6
Dartmouth 23.0% 1.0 0.2
Georgetown 17.7% 1.0 0.2
Minnesota 17.1% 2.0 0.3
Washington 10.2% 1.0 0.1
Arizona State 8.9% 1.0 0.1
Tennessee 7.8% 1.0 0.1
North Carolina St. 5.2% 1.0 0.1
Illinois 4.7% 2.0 0.1
UCLA 0.4% 1.0 0.0
Penn State 0.2% 1.0 0.0
Michigan State 0.1% 2.0 0.0
Louisville 0.0% 1.0 0.0
Missouri 0.0% 1.0 0.0
Total 10.5
Minimum 5.0
Maximum 17.0