Oregon
Men - Women
2012 - 2013 - 2014
Switch to All-time Team Page
RankNameGradeRating
2  Edward Cheserek FR 30:32
48  Mac Fleet SR 31:32
53  Parker Stinson SR 31:34
93  Tanguy Pepiot JR 31:49
119  Jake Leingang FR 31:56
185  Ryan Pickering JR 32:11
205  Daniel Winn JR 32:13
272  Cole Watson JR 32:27
277  Matthew Melancon SO 32:28
323  Chris Brewer SO 32:37
395  Jeramy Elkaim JR 32:46
1,032  Matt Jablonski SO 33:53
1,897  Tim Costin SR 35:08
National Rank #5 of 311
West Region Rank #1 of 32
Chance of Advancing to Nationals 99.9%
Most Likely Finish 2nd at Nationals


National Champion 8.3%
Top 5 at Nationals 61.3%
Top 10 at Nationals 88.5%
Top 20 at Nationals 99.3%


Regional Champion 72.1%
Top 5 in Regional 100.0%
Top 10 in Regional 100.0%
Top 20 in Regional 100.0%


Race Performance Ratings


Times listed are adjusted ratings based on performance compared to other runners in race.


RaceDateTeam Rating Edward Cheserek Mac Fleet Parker Stinson Tanguy Pepiot Jake Leingang Ryan Pickering Daniel Winn Cole Watson Matthew Melancon Chris Brewer Jeramy Elkaim
Coast-to-Coast Battle in Beantown 09/27 441 31:42 32:22 31:42 31:46 31:54 31:51 31:54
Pre-National Invitational (Blue) 10/19 310 31:06 31:24 31:23 31:46 31:55 32:16 32:53
Pac-12 Championships 11/02 320 30:36 31:34 31:01 32:10 31:52 32:15 32:30 33:23 32:45
West Region Championships 11/15 378 31:11 31:36 31:28 31:50 32:09 32:24 32:19
NCAA Championship 11/23 333 30:12 31:37 31:28 31:31 32:20 34:06 33:51





NCAA Tournament Simulation


Based on results of 5,000 simulations of the NCAA Tournament. Numbers in tables represent percentage of times each outcome occured during simulation.



Team Results

Advances to RoundAve FinishAve Score Finishing Place
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31
NCAA Championship 99.9% 5.6 243 8.3 13.8 13.8 13.8 11.6 8.0 7.2 5.3 3.6 3.2 2.4 1.9 1.2 1.4 1.1 0.8 0.5 0.6 0.4 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Region Championship 100% 1.4 60 72.1 20.0 7.2 0.6 0.1 0.0



Individual Results

NCAA ChampionshipAdvances to RoundAve Finish Finishing Place
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25
Edward Cheserek 100% 1.8 26.9 28.1 12.7 6.8 4.6 3.1 2.7 2.1 1.5 0.9 0.9 1.1 0.9 0.8 0.7 0.5 0.5 0.4 0.5 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.3 0.2
Mac Fleet 100.0% 49.7 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.4 0.6 0.7 0.6 0.7 1.0 1.1 1.3 1.2 1.3 1.4 1.4 1.5 1.8
Parker Stinson 99.9% 54.3 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.4 0.8 0.6 0.6 0.8 0.9 0.9 0.9 1.1 1.3 1.1 1.2
Tanguy Pepiot 99.9% 85.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.2
Jake Leingang 99.9% 102.5 0.0 0.0 0.1
Ryan Pickering 99.9% 142.3
Daniel Winn 99.9% 145.9


RegionalAve Finish Finishing Place
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25
Edward Cheserek 1.0 79.7 11.1 4.6 2.3 1.1 0.4 0.3 0.1 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Mac Fleet 7.7 1.5 4.4 8.6 10.7 10.2 9.6 7.0 5.5 4.4 4.3 3.2 3.6 2.7 2.1 2.1 2.1 1.7 1.5 1.3 1.3 1.2 1.1 1.0 0.8
Parker Stinson 8.5 0.0 0.8 3.2 6.9 9.4 10.3 8.6 7.3 6.2 5.1 4.1 4.2 3.4 2.9 2.8 2.2 2.3 1.7 1.7 1.7 1.3 1.3 1.3 1.2 1.0
Tanguy Pepiot 15.5 0.3 0.6 1.6 3.1 4.1 4.8 5.4 5.2 5.1 5.0 4.2 4.3 4.4 3.7 4.1 3.8 2.9 2.9 2.7 2.3 1.9 2.1 2.0
Jake Leingang 19.5 0.1 0.4 0.9 1.3 2.7 3.0 3.9 4.2 4.0 3.7 4.5 4.2 4.1 4.4 3.5 3.3 3.5 3.2 2.9 3.0 2.4 2.4
Ryan Pickering 29.6 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.6 0.6 1.1 0.9 1.7 2.0 2.6 2.3 2.7 3.1 3.2 3.3 3.2 3.1 3.2 3.3
Daniel Winn 31.8 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.5 0.8 0.9 0.8 1.7 1.8 1.8 2.3 3.1 2.3 2.9 3.2 3.0 2.9 3.3




NCAA Championship Selection Detail

Total
Region Finish Chance of Finishing Chance of Advancing Auto At Large Selection No Adv Auto At Large Region Finish
1 2 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13
1 72.1% 100.0% 72.1 72.1 1
2 20.0% 100.0% 20.0 20.0 2
3 7.2% 100.0% 0.3 0.9 1.4 1.9 1.2 0.7 0.4 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 7.2 3
4 0.6% 100.0% 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.6 4
5 0.1% 50.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 5
6 0.0% 0.0 6
7 7
8 8
9 9
10 10
11 11
12 12
13 13
14 14
15 15
16 16
17 17
18 18
19 19
20 20
21 21
22 22
23 23
24 24
25 25
26 26
27 27
28 28
29 29
30 30
31 31
32 32
Total 100% 99.9% 72.1 20.0 0.3 0.9 1.4 2.0 1.3 0.8 0.4 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 92.1 7.8




Points



At large teams are selected based on the number of wins (points) against teams already in the championships. As a result, advancement is predicated on accumulating enough points before the last at-large selection. Accordingly, the points below are the total number of wins against automatic qualifiers or teams selected in the at-large process before the last selection. Minimum, maximum, and average points are number seen in 5,000 simulations of the NCAA Tournament.



Received By BeatingChance ReceivedAverage If >0Average
Wisconsin 99.7% 1.0 1.0
Syracuse 98.9% 1.0 1.0
Princeton 98.3% 1.0 1.0
Tulsa 95.9% 1.0 1.0
Providence 91.6% 1.0 0.9
Iona 91.1% 1.0 0.9
Stanford 78.1% 2.0 1.6
Florida State 67.8% 1.0 0.7
Washington 10.2% 1.0 0.1
Arizona State 8.9% 1.0 0.1
Southern Utah 6.7% 1.0 0.1
Oklahoma 4.4% 1.0 0.0
Boise State 3.3% 1.0 0.0
Butler 1.4% 1.0 0.0
Duke 1.2% 1.0 0.0
Virginia Tech 1.2% 1.0 0.0
UCLA 0.4% 1.0 0.0
Lamar 0.2% 1.0 0.0
Penn State 0.2% 1.0 0.0
Lipscomb 0.1% 1.0 0.0
Kansas 0.0% 1.0 0.0
Georgia Tech 0.0% 1.0 0.0
Cal Poly 0.0% 1.0 0.0
Total 8.4
Minimum 4.0
Maximum 13.0