Portland
Men - Women
2012 - 2013 - 2014
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RankNameGradeRating
15  Scott Fauble JR 31:10
42  William Kincaid JR 31:28
89  David Perry JR 31:48
91  Charlie McDonald SR 31:48
112  Ryan Poland JR 31:54
217  Danny Martinez FR 32:15
298  Cody Wells SR 32:32
328  Alex Dillard FR 32:37
359  Chris Borg JR 32:41
445  Timo Goehler JR 32:53
684  Josh Gorecki SR 33:20
689  Griffin Hay FR 33:21
995  Stephen Kersh JR 33:50
1,084  Alex Bowns FR 33:58
1,205  Will Baker-Robinson FR 34:08
1,343  Sean O'Hollearn SO 34:19
1,521  Connor Whan JR 34:34
1,822  Ben Forsee FR 35:01
1,907  Andy Holstrom FR 35:09
2,658  Nick Shindler FR 36:56
National Rank #6 of 311
West Region Rank #2 of 32
Chance of Advancing to Nationals 97.7%
Most Likely Finish 9th at Nationals


National Champion 0.6%
Top 5 at Nationals 12.5%
Top 10 at Nationals 40.6%
Top 20 at Nationals 85.8%


Regional Champion 12.2%
Top 5 in Regional 99.3%
Top 10 in Regional 100.0%
Top 20 in Regional 100.0%


Race Performance Ratings


Times listed are adjusted ratings based on performance compared to other runners in race.


RaceDateTeam Rating Scott Fauble William Kincaid David Perry Charlie McDonald Ryan Poland Danny Martinez Cody Wells Alex Dillard Chris Borg Timo Goehler Josh Gorecki
39th Charles Bowles Willamette Invitational 10/05 1284
Wisconsin adidas Invitational 10/19 422 31:17 31:38 31:51 31:58 31:54 32:40 32:26 32:31 32:43
Beaver Classic 10/25 1171 33:31
West Coast Conference Championships 11/02 380 31:03 31:14 31:49 32:02 32:02 31:58 32:49 32:47 32:57
West Region Championships 11/15 460 31:26 31:37 31:42 32:18 32:01 32:24 32:36
NCAA Championship 11/23 344 30:53 31:53 31:32 31:34 31:58 32:50





NCAA Tournament Simulation


Based on results of 5,000 simulations of the NCAA Tournament. Numbers in tables represent percentage of times each outcome occured during simulation.



Team Results

Advances to RoundAve FinishAve Score Finishing Place
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31
NCAA Championship 97.7% 12.6 366 0.6 1.1 2.7 3.4 4.8 5.1 5.5 5.9 6.2 5.4 6.0 5.8 5.9 5.1 4.3 4.0 3.4 3.5 3.4 3.8 2.3 2.1 1.8 1.8 1.3 1.1 0.5 0.5 0.3 0.1 0.1
Region Championship 100% 2.6 96 12.2 34.6 42.1 8.2 2.2 0.4 0.1 0.1



Individual Results

NCAA ChampionshipAdvances to RoundAve Finish Finishing Place
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25
Scott Fauble 99.7% 18.8 0.1 0.4 1.4 2.5 3.2 3.3 3.4 4.2 3.5 3.5 3.3 3.3 3.5 2.8 2.8 2.1 2.5 2.3 2.1 1.8 1.9 1.6 1.9 1.8 1.5
David Perry 97.8% 83.8 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.1
Charlie McDonald 97.8% 84.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2
Ryan Poland 97.7% 100.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1
Danny Martinez 97.7% 151.5
Cody Wells 97.7% 186.3
Alex Dillard 97.7% 197.9


RegionalAve Finish Finishing Place
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25
Scott Fauble 3.3 4.2 18.8 22.8 15.9 9.5 6.9 4.0 3.0 2.4 2.2 1.6 1.2 0.9 0.7 0.8 0.6 0.6 0.4 0.5 0.4 0.3 0.4 0.1 0.2 0.1
David Perry 14.5 0.3 0.8 2.2 3.7 4.3 5.1 5.3 6.0 5.8 5.3 4.9 4.0 4.2 4.0 2.8 3.4 2.8 3.1 2.7 2.1 1.9 1.8 1.7
Charlie McDonald 14.9 0.2 0.8 2.2 3.0 5.0 4.9 5.0 5.0 5.3 4.7 5.1 4.9 4.3 3.3 3.3 3.1 3.0 2.8 2.7 2.4 2.1 1.8 1.9
Ryan Poland 18.5 0.1 0.2 0.5 1.5 2.0 2.5 3.8 3.8 4.5 4.8 4.6 4.5 4.4 4.1 3.7 3.3 3.6 3.3 2.8 2.7 2.3 2.6 2.2
Danny Martinez 33.2 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.8 0.9 0.9 1.2 1.7 2.1 2.1 2.2 2.6 2.8 3.0 3.0 3.2
Cody Wells 47.6 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7
Alex Dillard 52.4 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.2




NCAA Championship Selection Detail

Total
Region Finish Chance of Finishing Chance of Advancing Auto At Large Selection No Adv Auto At Large Region Finish
1 2 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13
1 12.2% 100.0% 12.2 12.2 1
2 34.6% 100.0% 34.6 34.6 2
3 42.1% 100.0% 5.3 13.3 14.5 6.5 2.0 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0 42.1 3
4 8.2% 98.1% 0.9 2.0 2.1 1.2 0.5 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.3 0.2 8.1 4
5 2.2% 34.5% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.2 1.4 0.8 5
6 0.4% 0.4 6
7 0.1% 0.1 7
8 0.1% 0.1 8
9 9
10 10
11 11
12 12
13 13
14 14
15 15
16 16
17 17
18 18
19 19
20 20
21 21
22 22
23 23
24 24
25 25
26 26
27 27
28 28
29 29
30 30
31 31
32 32
Total 100% 97.7% 12.2 34.6 5.3 14.3 16.5 8.6 3.2 0.8 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.3 0.5 2.3 46.8 50.9




Points



At large teams are selected based on the number of wins (points) against teams already in the championships. As a result, advancement is predicated on accumulating enough points before the last at-large selection. Accordingly, the points below are the total number of wins against automatic qualifiers or teams selected in the at-large process before the last selection. Minimum, maximum, and average points are number seen in 5,000 simulations of the NCAA Tournament.



Received By BeatingChance ReceivedAverage If >0Average
Arkansas 100.0% 1.0 1.0
Texas 99.9% 1.0 1.0
Wisconsin 99.7% 1.0 1.0
Indiana 99.6% 1.0 1.0
Michigan 99.5% 1.0 1.0
Eastern Kentucky 99.4% 1.0 1.0
Syracuse 98.9% 1.0 1.0
Columbia 97.0% 1.0 1.0
North Carolina 96.8% 1.0 1.0
Notre Dame 95.9% 1.0 1.0
New Mexico 93.9% 1.0 0.9
Providence 91.6% 1.0 0.9
Air Force 68.6% 1.0 0.7
Harvard 65.7% 1.0 0.7
Florida 59.3% 1.0 0.6
Georgia 55.0% 1.0 0.6
Dartmouth 23.0% 1.0 0.2
Georgetown 17.7% 1.0 0.2
Minnesota 17.1% 1.0 0.2
Washington 10.2% 1.0 0.1
Arizona State 8.9% 1.0 0.1
Tennessee 7.8% 1.0 0.1
North Carolina St. 5.2% 1.0 0.1
Illinois 4.7% 1.0 0.0
UCLA 0.4% 1.0 0.0
Michigan State 0.1% 1.0 0.0
Louisville 0.0% 1.0 0.0
Missouri 0.0% 1.0 0.0
Total 15.2
Minimum 10.0
Maximum 20.0