Stanford
Men - Women
2012 - 2013 - 2014
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RankNameGradeRating
7  Jim Rosa JR 31:00
51  Erik Olson SR 31:34
65  Sean McGorty FR 31:40
97  Michael Atchoo SR 31:50
261  Garrett Sweatt SO 32:25
303  Tyler Stutzman SR 32:33
700  Kenny Krotzer SR 33:22
724  Kevin Bishop SO 33:25
807  Jack Bordoni SO 33:33
841  Marco Bertolotti JR 33:36
1,224  Justin Brinkley SO 34:09
2,175  Will Drinkwater SO 35:39
National Rank #8 of 311
West Region Rank #3 of 32
Chance of Advancing to Nationals 85.8%
Most Likely Finish 6th at Nationals


National Champion 0.8%
Top 5 at Nationals 18.2%
Top 10 at Nationals 50.3%
Top 20 at Nationals 80.9%


Regional Champion 15.3%
Top 5 in Regional 99.4%
Top 10 in Regional 100.0%
Top 20 in Regional 100.0%


Race Performance Ratings


Times listed are adjusted ratings based on performance compared to other runners in race.


RaceDateTeam Rating Jim Rosa Erik Olson Sean McGorty Michael Atchoo Garrett Sweatt Tyler Stutzman Kenny Krotzer Kevin Bishop Jack Bordoni Marco Bertolotti Justin Brinkley
Stanford Invitational 09/28 686 31:42 31:42 32:26 32:27 32:53 33:21 33:18 33:37
Pre-National Invitational (Blue) 10/19 372 31:22 31:22 31:14 31:52 32:17 33:24 33:08
Santa Clara Bronco Invitational 10/19 1153 33:06 33:31 33:24 33:10
Pac-12 Championships 11/02 452 30:43 31:34 31:43 32:32 32:08 34:52 34:10 34:02 35:31
West Region Championships 11/15 351 31:19 31:25 31:35 31:31 32:15 32:30 33:17
NCAA Championship 11/23 520 30:40 31:46 32:27 31:52 32:48 32:27 34:05





NCAA Tournament Simulation


Based on results of 5,000 simulations of the NCAA Tournament. Numbers in tables represent percentage of times each outcome occured during simulation.



Team Results

Advances to RoundAve FinishAve Score Finishing Place
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31
NCAA Championship 85.8% 10.2 329 0.8 1.9 3.8 5.3 6.3 7.1 6.9 6.4 6.0 5.6 5.3 5.0 4.1 3.0 2.7 2.8 2.9 1.9 1.3 1.6 1.2 1.0 0.9 0.7 0.3 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.0
Region Championship 100% 2.4 90 15.3 42.4 34.5 5.9 1.3 0.4 0.1 0.1 0.0



Individual Results

NCAA ChampionshipAdvances to RoundAve Finish Finishing Place
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25
Jim Rosa 99.7% 10.8 0.7 3.1 5.6 6.6 6.2 6.6 5.4 4.4 4.1 4.0 3.8 2.6 2.7 2.6 2.2 2.0 2.1 1.6 1.6 1.7 1.4 1.6 1.4 1.2 1.1
Erik Olson 93.3% 52.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.7 0.6 0.9 0.7 0.9 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.3 1.2 1.3 1.1
Sean McGorty 89.3% 65.2 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.4 0.5 0.7
Michael Atchoo 86.4% 89.5 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2
Garrett Sweatt 85.8% 172.6
Tyler Stutzman 85.8% 189.8
Kenny Krotzer 85.9% 241.0


RegionalAve Finish Finishing Place
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25
Jim Rosa 2.1 10.8 37.7 17.6 11.1 7.2 3.9 2.5 1.9 1.2 1.0 0.8 0.5 0.6 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1
Erik Olson 8.5 0.0 0.5 3.3 7.2 10.3 9.3 8.8 7.3 6.0 5.2 4.3 3.5 3.0 2.9 2.6 2.5 2.1 2.2 1.8 1.8 1.4 1.4 1.1 1.2 0.9
Sean McGorty 10.8 0.1 0.9 3.8 6.1 7.6 7.3 7.6 6.6 6.0 5.1 5.3 3.6 3.2 3.1 3.3 2.3 2.3 2.0 2.0 1.6 1.6 1.5 1.5 1.2
Michael Atchoo 16.0 0.0 0.5 1.4 2.5 3.8 4.7 5.3 4.9 4.9 5.4 4.0 4.1 4.6 3.8 3.9 3.3 3.3 2.8 2.4 2.4 2.2 1.9 1.8
Garrett Sweatt 42.8 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.5 0.5 0.4 0.6 1.1 0.9 1.3 1.5 1.6
Tyler Stutzman 49.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.5
Kenny Krotzer 85.7




NCAA Championship Selection Detail

Total
Region Finish Chance of Finishing Chance of Advancing Auto At Large Selection No Adv Auto At Large Region Finish
1 2 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13
1 15.3% 100.0% 15.3 15.3 1
2 42.4% 100.0% 42.4 42.4 2
3 34.5% 72.0% 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.4 0.5 0.7 1.5 2.5 3.7 3.8 3.3 3.5 4.6 9.7 24.9 3
4 5.9% 51.5% 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.4 0.5 0.7 0.4 0.6 2.9 3.0 4
5 1.3% 18.2% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 1.1 0.2 5
6 0.4% 0.4 6
7 0.1% 0.1 7
8 0.1% 0.1 8
9 0.0% 0.0 9
10 10
11 11
12 12
13 13
14 14
15 15
16 16
17 17
18 18
19 19
20 20
21 21
22 22
23 23
24 24
25 25
26 26
27 27
28 28
29 29
30 30
31 31
32 32
Total 100% 85.8% 15.3 42.4 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.4 0.5 0.8 1.6 2.6 4.2 4.3 4.0 3.9 5.3 14.2 57.7 28.2




Points



At large teams are selected based on the number of wins (points) against teams already in the championships. As a result, advancement is predicated on accumulating enough points before the last at-large selection. Accordingly, the points below are the total number of wins against automatic qualifiers or teams selected in the at-large process before the last selection. Minimum, maximum, and average points are number seen in 5,000 simulations of the NCAA Tournament.



Received By BeatingChance ReceivedAverage If >0Average
Princeton 98.3% 1.0 1.0
Tulsa 95.9% 1.0 1.0
Florida State 67.8% 1.0 0.7
Washington 10.2% 1.0 0.1
Arizona State 8.9% 1.0 0.1
Southern Utah 6.7% 1.0 0.1
Oklahoma 4.4% 1.0 0.0
Boise State 3.3% 1.0 0.0
Butler 1.4% 1.0 0.0
Duke 1.2% 1.0 0.0
Virginia Tech 1.2% 1.0 0.0
UCLA 0.4% 1.0 0.0
Lamar 0.2% 1.0 0.0
Penn State 0.2% 1.0 0.0
Lipscomb 0.1% 1.0 0.0
Kansas 0.0% 1.0 0.0
Cal Poly 0.0% 1.0 0.0
Georgia Tech 0.0% 1.0 0.0
Total 3.0
Minimum 0.0
Maximum 7.0