Washington
Men - Women
2012 - 2013 - 2014
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RankNameGradeRating
17  Aaron Nelson JR 31:12
307  Aaron Beattie JR 32:34
325  Izaic Yorks SO 32:37
365  Meron Simon SO 32:42
410  Andrew Gardner FR 32:48
441  Blake Nelson FR 32:52
443  Tyler King SO 32:53
518  Jacob Smith SO 33:02
523  Sumner Goodwin FR 33:02
721  Nick Harris FR 33:25
1,139  Angelo Comeaux SO 34:03
1,182  Timothy Cummings SO 34:06
National Rank #44 of 311
West Region Rank #9 of 32
Chance of Advancing to Nationals 12.7%
Most Likely Finish 7th at Regional


National Champion 0.0%
Top 5 at Nationals 0.0%
Top 10 at Nationals 0.0%
Top 20 at Nationals 0.7%


Regional Champion 0.0%
Top 5 in Regional 18.8%
Top 10 in Regional 98.6%
Top 20 in Regional 100.0%


Race Performance Ratings


Times listed are adjusted ratings based on performance compared to other runners in race.


RaceDateTeam Rating Aaron Nelson Aaron Beattie Izaic Yorks Meron Simon Andrew Gardner Blake Nelson Tyler King Jacob Smith Sumner Goodwin Nick Harris Angelo Comeaux
Wisconsin adidas Invitational 10/19 623 31:04 32:26 32:13 32:09 32:31 32:44 32:56 33:23 33:19
Emerald City Open 10/19 33:41 34:24
Pac-12 Championships 11/02 703 31:07 32:42 32:45 32:55 32:23 32:15 32:59 33:16
West Region Championships 11/15 883 31:31 33:03 32:56 33:05 33:40 33:00
NCAA Championship 11/23 30:59





NCAA Tournament Simulation


Based on results of 5,000 simulations of the NCAA Tournament. Numbers in tables represent percentage of times each outcome occured during simulation.



Team Results

Advances to RoundAve FinishAve Score Finishing Place
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31
NCAA Championship 12.7% 26.7 603 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.4 0.7 0.9 1.3 1.8 2.0 1.8 1.6 0.7
Region Championship 100% 7.1 213 0.0 0.6 5.8 12.4 18.0 21.8 20.5 13.8 5.6 1.1 0.3 0.0



Individual Results

NCAA ChampionshipAdvances to RoundAve Finish Finishing Place
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25
Aaron Nelson 98.5% 20.7 0.1 0.4 1.0 1.9 2.3 2.8 3.3 3.4 3.5 3.2 3.4 3.0 2.8 2.1 2.9 2.2 2.5 2.3 2.5 2.0 2.3 1.8 1.7 1.6 1.2
Aaron Beattie 12.7% 174.5
Izaic Yorks 12.7% 180.3
Meron Simon 12.7% 187.6
Andrew Gardner 12.7% 200.6
Blake Nelson 12.7% 205.2
Tyler King 12.7% 208.2


RegionalAve Finish Finishing Place
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25
Aaron Nelson 3.5 3.2 17.2 22.1 16.4 10.7 5.8 4.7 3.5 2.2 2.1 1.8 1.4 1.3 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.7 0.5 0.5 0.4 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.2
Aaron Beattie 49.6 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5
Izaic Yorks 51.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.3
Meron Simon 55.5 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.2
Andrew Gardner 60.4 0.0 0.0
Blake Nelson 64.2 0.0
Tyler King 63.9




NCAA Championship Selection Detail

Total
Region Finish Chance of Finishing Chance of Advancing Auto At Large Selection No Adv Auto At Large Region Finish
1 2 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13
1 1
2 0.0% 100.0% 0.0 0.0 2
3 0.6% 100.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.6 3
4 5.8% 82.1% 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.5 0.6 0.8 1.1 0.8 0.6 1.0 4.8 4
5 12.4% 51.8% 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.5 0.8 1.6 1.3 1.4 6.0 6.4 5
6 18.0% 4.7% 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.1 0.3 17.2 0.8 6
7 21.8% 0.2% 0.0 0.0 21.8 0.0 7
8 20.5% 20.5 8
9 13.8% 13.8 9
10 5.6% 5.6 10
11 1.1% 1.1 11
12 0.3% 0.3 12
13 0.0% 0.0 13
14 14
15 15
16 16
17 17
18 18
19 19
20 20
21 21
22 22
23 23
24 24
25 25
26 26
27 27
28 28
29 29
30 30
31 31
32 32
Total 100% 12.7% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.4 0.5 0.9 1.2 1.8 3.1 2.2 2.4 87.3 0.0 12.7




Points



At large teams are selected based on the number of wins (points) against teams already in the championships. As a result, advancement is predicated on accumulating enough points before the last at-large selection. Accordingly, the points below are the total number of wins against automatic qualifiers or teams selected in the at-large process before the last selection. Minimum, maximum, and average points are number seen in 5,000 simulations of the NCAA Tournament.



Received By BeatingChance ReceivedAverage If >0Average
Texas 99.9% 1.0 1.0
Indiana 99.6% 1.0 1.0
Air Force 68.6% 1.0 0.7
Florida 59.3% 1.0 0.6
Georgia 55.0% 1.0 0.6
Dartmouth 23.0% 1.0 0.2
Georgetown 17.7% 1.0 0.2
Minnesota 17.1% 1.0 0.2
Arizona State 8.9% 1.0 0.1
Tennessee 7.8% 1.0 0.1
North Carolina St. 5.2% 1.0 0.1
Illinois 4.7% 1.0 0.0
UCLA 0.4% 2.0 0.0
Michigan State 0.1% 1.0 0.0
Louisville 0.0% 1.0 0.0
Missouri 0.0% 1.0 0.0
Total 4.7
Minimum 1.0
Maximum 10.0