Wisconsin
Men - Women
2012 - 2013 - 2014
Switch to All-time Team Page
RankNameGradeRating
35  Malachy Schrobilgen FR 31:25
73  Alex Brill SR 31:43
83  Michael VanVoorhis JR 31:47
125  Alex Hatz JR 31:57
172  Jacob Naylor SR 32:10
260  Robert Finnerty SR 32:25
382  Jake Erschen JR 32:44
466  Sam Hacker SO 32:56
712  Neal Berman SR 33:24
779  Drew Shields SR 33:30
1,102  Matt McKenna JR 33:59
National Rank #9 of 311
Great Lakes Region Rank #1 of 30
Chance of Advancing to Nationals 99.8%
Most Likely Finish 7th at Nationals


National Champion 0.4%
Top 5 at Nationals 13.1%
Top 10 at Nationals 41.3%
Top 20 at Nationals 85.6%


Regional Champion 37.4%
Top 5 in Regional 99.8%
Top 10 in Regional 100.0%
Top 20 in Regional 100.0%


Race Performance Ratings


Times listed are adjusted ratings based on performance compared to other runners in race.


RaceDateTeam Rating Malachy Schrobilgen Alex Brill Michael VanVoorhis Alex Hatz Jacob Naylor Robert Finnerty Jake Erschen Sam Hacker Neal Berman Drew Shields Matt McKenna
Coast-to-Coast Battle in Beantown 09/27 743 32:03 32:03 31:58 32:57 33:21 32:49 33:35 33:59
Titan Invite 10/04 1186
Wisconsin adidas Invitational 10/19 400 31:20 31:47 31:21 31:55 32:03 32:23 33:24 33:20
Big Ten Championships 11/03 509 31:22 32:06 31:52 31:57 32:13 32:41 32:55 32:56 33:39
Great Lakes Region Championships 11/15 437 31:40 32:03 31:31 31:42 31:57 32:28 32:27
NCAA Championship 11/23 401 31:11 31:23 32:25 31:47 31:53 32:11 32:45





NCAA Tournament Simulation


Based on results of 5,000 simulations of the NCAA Tournament. Numbers in tables represent percentage of times each outcome occured during simulation.



Team Results

Advances to RoundAve FinishAve Score Finishing Place
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31
NCAA Championship 99.8% 12.8 368 0.4 1.3 2.6 4.1 4.7 5.7 5.9 5.8 5.6 5.2 5.6 5.5 5.6 4.7 3.9 4.0 4.0 4.3 3.4 3.3 2.9 2.4 1.8 1.7 1.6 1.5 1.1 0.7 0.4 0.2 0.0
Region Championship 100% 2.1 70 37.4 31.7 21.0 8.4 1.4 0.1 0.0



Individual Results

NCAA ChampionshipAdvances to RoundAve Finish Finishing Place
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25
Malachy Schrobilgen 99.9% 37.5 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.6 0.5 0.9 1.0 1.1 1.4 1.7 1.5 1.5 1.7 2.0 1.8 2.4 1.7 1.9 1.8 2.0 2.1 1.7
Alex Brill 99.8% 72.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.4
Michael VanVoorhis 99.8% 82.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.2 0.3
Alex Hatz 99.8% 107.7 0.0
Jacob Naylor 99.8% 138.0
Robert Finnerty 99.8% 175.2
Jake Erschen 99.8% 208.0


RegionalAve Finish Finishing Place
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25
Malachy Schrobilgen 4.2 12.2 13.3 13.0 10.1 7.5 6.3 5.4 5.0 4.2 3.3 4.0 2.7 2.2 1.8 1.2 1.2 1.1 0.9 0.7 0.5 0.7 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.2
Alex Brill 10.1 0.3 1.3 3.7 4.5 6.1 6.3 7.1 7.0 6.2 6.8 5.6 5.4 5.5 4.3 3.9 3.0 3.2 2.1 2.2 1.9 1.6 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.1
Michael VanVoorhis 11.4 0.1 0.8 1.6 3.2 4.8 5.1 6.1 6.0 6.9 6.7 6.6 5.5 5.7 4.8 4.4 3.8 3.2 3.0 2.6 2.1 2.0 2.3 1.5 1.3 1.1
Alex Hatz 15.0 0.1 0.1 0.5 0.8 1.7 2.6 3.2 4.2 5.0 6.5 6.9 6.5 6.2 5.5 4.7 5.3 4.0 3.9 2.9 2.8 2.6 2.4 2.1 1.8
Jacob Naylor 20.3 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.8 1.4 2.0 2.9 4.1 4.7 5.6 5.4 5.4 5.0 5.1 5.6 4.6 3.7 3.4 3.3 3.0
Robert Finnerty 29.1 0.3 0.3 0.6 0.9 1.7 1.9 2.7 3.0 3.0 3.2 4.1 4.0 4.2 4.1
Jake Erschen 41.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.6 1.0 1.2




NCAA Championship Selection Detail

Total
Region Finish Chance of Finishing Chance of Advancing Auto At Large Selection No Adv Auto At Large Region Finish
1 2 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13
1 37.4% 100.0% 37.4 37.4 1
2 31.7% 100.0% 31.7 31.7 2
3 21.0% 100.0% 1.2 3.0 6.3 6.1 3.3 0.8 0.2 0.0 0.0 21.0 3
4 8.4% 100.0% 0.1 0.5 1.3 1.9 1.9 1.1 0.9 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 8.4 4
5 1.4% 97.1% 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 1.4 5
6 0.1% 28.6% 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 6
7 0.0% 0.0 7
8 8
9 9
10 10
11 11
12 12
13 13
14 14
15 15
16 16
17 17
18 18
19 19
20 20
21 21
22 22
23 23
24 24
25 25
26 26
27 27
28 28
29 29
30 30
Total 100% 99.8% 37.4 31.7 1.2 3.0 6.8 7.5 5.5 3.0 1.4 1.1 0.5 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.2 69.1 30.7




Points



At large teams are selected based on the number of wins (points) against teams already in the championships. As a result, advancement is predicated on accumulating enough points before the last at-large selection. Accordingly, the points below are the total number of wins against automatic qualifiers or teams selected in the at-large process before the last selection. Minimum, maximum, and average points are number seen in 5,000 simulations of the NCAA Tournament.



Received By BeatingChance ReceivedAverage If >0Average
Arkansas 100.0% 1.0 1.0
Texas 99.9% 1.0 1.0
Indiana 99.6% 1.0 1.0
Michigan 99.5% 1.0 1.0
Eastern Kentucky 99.4% 1.0 1.0
Syracuse 98.9% 1.0 1.0
Columbia 97.0% 1.0 1.0
North Carolina 96.8% 1.0 1.0
Notre Dame 95.9% 1.0 1.0
New Mexico 93.9% 1.0 0.9
Providence 91.6% 1.0 0.9
Air Force 68.6% 1.0 0.7
Harvard 65.7% 1.0 0.7
Florida 59.3% 1.0 0.6
Georgia 55.0% 1.0 0.6
Dartmouth 23.0% 1.0 0.2
Georgetown 17.7% 1.0 0.2
Minnesota 17.1% 2.0 0.3
Washington 10.2% 1.0 0.1
Arizona State 8.9% 1.0 0.1
Tennessee 7.8% 1.0 0.1
North Carolina St. 5.2% 1.0 0.1
Illinois 4.7% 2.0 0.1
UCLA 0.4% 1.0 0.0
Penn State 0.2% 1.0 0.0
Michigan State 0.1% 2.0 0.0
Louisville 0.0% 1.0 0.0
Missouri 0.0% 1.0 0.0
Total 14.4
Minimum 9.0
Maximum 21.0