Air Force
Men - Women
2013 - 2014 - 2015
Switch to All-time Team Page
RankNameGradeRating
106  Riley Coates SR 31:51
234  Patrick Corona JR 32:17
260  Zach Perkins SR 32:22
528  Kyle Eller SO 32:55
672  Andrew Johnston FR 33:08
726  Daniel Shellhouse JR 33:13
750  Dan Caddigan JR 33:15
799  Matt Dorsey SO 33:20
1,157  Jason Engel SO 33:53
National Rank #52 of 311
Mountain Region Rank #9 of 18
Chance of Advancing to Nationals 6.6%
Most Likely Finish 8th at Regional


National Champion 0.0%
Top 5 at Nationals 0.0%
Top 10 at Nationals 0.0%
Top 20 at Nationals 0.3%


Regional Champion 0.0%
Top 5 in Regional 2.9%
Top 10 in Regional 99.8%
Top 20 in Regional 100.0%


Race Performance Ratings


Times listed are adjusted ratings based on performance compared to other runners in race.


RaceDateTeam Rating Riley Coates Patrick Corona Zach Perkins Kyle Eller Andrew Johnston Daniel Shellhouse Dan Caddigan Matt Dorsey Jason Engel
Notre Dame Invitational (Blue) 10/03 826 31:59 32:49 32:25 32:37 33:02 32:40 33:07 33:16
Mountain West Championships 10/03 718 31:53 31:41 32:33 32:41 32:42 33:26 34:01 33:24 33:36
Rocky Mountain Shootout 10/04 1199 34:02
ISU Pre-National Invitational (Blue Race) 10/18 841 32:04 32:16 32:30 33:08 33:15 33:30 32:50
Mountain Region Championships 11/14 752 31:38 32:19 31:51 33:13 33:34 33:12 33:17
NCAA Championship 11/22 31:40





NCAA Tournament Simulation


Based on results of 5,000 simulations of the NCAA Tournament. Numbers in tables represent percentage of times each outcome occured during simulation.



Team Results

Advances to RoundAve FinishAve Score Finishing Place
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31
NCAA Championship 6.6% 27.1 654 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.8 0.8 0.9 0.8 1.0
Region Championship 100% 7.8 214 0.0 0.3 2.5 8.2 28.3 32.0 26.1 2.3 0.2



Individual Results

NCAA ChampionshipAdvances to RoundAve Finish Finishing Place
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25
Riley Coates 49.5% 90.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1
Patrick Corona 8.6% 135.7
Zach Perkins 7.7% 142.6
Kyle Eller 6.6% 212.1
Andrew Johnston 6.6% 228.4
Daniel Shellhouse 6.6% 234.1
Dan Caddigan 6.6% 235.2


RegionalAve Finish Finishing Place
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25
Riley Coates 22.1 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.4 0.9 1.4 1.8 2.8 3.4 3.7 3.5 3.9 3.6 4.5 4.2 3.7 4.6 3.4 3.5 3.9 3.7 3.3
Patrick Corona 37.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.5 0.4 0.4 0.7 1.1 1.3 1.3 1.6 1.8
Zach Perkins 38.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.3 0.6 0.7 0.6 1.2 1.2
Kyle Eller 54.1
Andrew Johnston 61.6
Daniel Shellhouse 64.9
Dan Caddigan 65.8




NCAA Championship Selection Detail

Total
Region Finish Chance of Finishing Chance of Advancing Auto At Large Selection No Adv Auto At Large Region Finish
1 2 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13
1 1
2 2
3 0.0% 100.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 3
4 0.3% 87.5% 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.3 4
5 2.5% 78.7% 0.0 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.5 0.4 0.2 0.5 2.0 5
6 8.2% 50.5% 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.8 1.1 1.1 0.8 4.1 4.1 6
7 28.3% 0.5% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 28.2 0.1 7
8 32.0% 32.0 8
9 26.1% 26.1 9
10 2.3% 2.3 10
11 0.2% 0.2 11
12 12
13 13
14 14
15 15
16 16
17 17
18 18
Total 100% 6.6% 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.7 1.1 1.6 1.5 1.0 0.1 93.4 0.0 6.6




Points



At large teams are selected based on the number of wins (points) against teams already in the championships. As a result, advancement is predicated on accumulating enough points before the last at-large selection. Accordingly, the points below are the total number of wins against automatic qualifiers or teams selected in the at-large process before the last selection. Minimum, maximum, and average points are number seen in 5,000 simulations of the NCAA Tournament.



Received By BeatingChance ReceivedAverage If >0Average
Colorado St. 83.9% 1.0 0.8
Eastern Michigan 1.8% 1.0 0.0
North Texas 0.8% 1.0 0.0
Texas-Arlington 0.4% 1.0 0.0
Iowa 0.3% 2.0 0.0
Penn 0.2% 1.0 0.0
Bradley 0.0% 2.0 0.0
Total 0.9
Minimum 0.0
Maximum 3.0