BYU
Men - Women
2013 - 2014 - 2015
Switch to All-time Team Page
RankNameGradeRating
59  Jonathan Nelson JR 31:39
76  Steve Flint SR 31:44
111  Connor McMillan FR 31:52
119  Spencer Gardner SR 31:53
125  Conner Peloquin SR 31:54
133  Aaron Fletcher JR 31:55
181  Dylan Shawhan JR 32:06
195  Mitchell Briggs JR 32:09
206  Jonathan Harper FR 32:10
235  Spencer Hanson SO 32:17
308  Travis Fuller SR 32:29
National Rank #12 of 311
Mountain Region Rank #4 of 18
Chance of Advancing to Nationals 99.8%
Most Likely Finish 8th at Nationals


National Champion 0.1%
Top 5 at Nationals 13.3%
Top 10 at Nationals 50.1%
Top 20 at Nationals 93.2%


Regional Champion 0.4%
Top 5 in Regional 98.5%
Top 10 in Regional 100.0%
Top 20 in Regional 100.0%


Race Performance Ratings


Times listed are adjusted ratings based on performance compared to other runners in race.


RaceDateTeam Rating Jonathan Nelson Steve Flint Connor McMillan Spencer Gardner Conner Peloquin Aaron Fletcher Dylan Shawhan Mitchell Briggs Jonathan Harper Spencer Hanson Travis Fuller
Notre Dame Invitational (Blue) 10/03 429 31:28 31:52 31:38 31:58 32:14 31:52 32:13 32:44 32:47
Wisconsin adidas Invitational 10/17 519 31:34 31:56 32:00 32:02 32:03 32:22 32:15
Wisconsin adidas Invitational - B 10/17 32:06 32:10 32:10
West Coast Conference Championships 11/01 425 31:39 31:47 31:52 31:44 31:46 32:16 32:10 31:59 32:29
Mountain Region Championships 11/14 439 31:35 31:41 31:42 31:40 32:14 32:21
NCAA Championship 11/22 513 31:50 31:34 32:08 32:17 32:07 31:53 32:13





NCAA Tournament Simulation


Based on results of 5,000 simulations of the NCAA Tournament. Numbers in tables represent percentage of times each outcome occured during simulation.



Team Results

Advances to RoundAve FinishAve Score Finishing Place
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31
NCAA Championship 99.8% 11.3 347 0.1 1.0 2.5 3.9 5.8 6.6 7.2 8.3 7.6 7.3 7.4 6.2 5.6 5.1 4.3 4.0 3.5 2.8 2.3 1.9 1.6 1.3 1.0 0.6 0.6 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.3 0.1 0.0
Region Championship 100% 3.1 100 0.4 25.2 46.5 20.3 6.0 1.4 0.1



Individual Results

NCAA ChampionshipAdvances to RoundAve Finish Finishing Place
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25
Jonathan Nelson 99.8% 63.5 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.3 0.5 0.5 0.7 0.5 0.6 0.8 0.7 0.9 0.8
Steve Flint 99.8% 79.2 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.3 0.4
Connor McMillan 99.8% 99.8 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1
Spencer Gardner 99.8% 103.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0
Conner Peloquin 99.8% 105.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1
Aaron Fletcher 99.8% 108.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0
Dylan Shawhan 99.8% 137.5


RegionalAve Finish Finishing Place
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25
Jonathan Nelson 15.3 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.7 1.3 2.0 3.0 3.7 5.2 5.5 5.7 5.7 5.6 4.9 4.9 4.3 3.4 3.7 2.8 3.1 3.3 2.5 2.6 2.4 2.0
Steve Flint 18.1 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 1.0 1.5 2.2 3.7 3.3 4.6 5.4 5.2 5.1 4.7 4.3 3.9 4.1 3.9 3.4 3.3 3.4 3.3 2.7 2.5
Connor McMillan 22.2 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.6 1.1 1.5 2.0 3.2 3.7 3.9 4.3 3.8 4.2 3.9 4.1 4.3 4.0 4.1 4.4 2.6 3.0
Spencer Gardner 23.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.8 1.0 1.9 2.2 2.9 3.4 4.2 3.9 4.1 4.0 4.2 4.2 4.1 4.1 3.8 3.5 3.6
Conner Peloquin 23.8 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.5 0.7 1.1 1.7 2.1 2.5 3.1 3.8 3.5 3.5 4.0 4.1 3.9 4.0 4.3 3.9 3.8 3.4
Aaron Fletcher 24.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.5 1.1 1.3 1.8 2.3 2.8 3.2 3.6 3.6 3.8 4.4 4.4 3.9 3.8 3.7 3.4 3.6
Dylan Shawhan 30.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.8 0.8 1.4 1.5 1.8 2.2 2.7 2.7 3.4 3.5 3.6 4.0




NCAA Championship Selection Detail

Total
Region Finish Chance of Finishing Chance of Advancing Auto At Large Selection No Adv Auto At Large Region Finish
1 2 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13
1 0.4% 100.0% 0.4 0.4 1
2 25.2% 100.0% 25.2 25.2 2
3 46.5% 100.0% 1.1 1.7 1.3 5.3 10.6 9.9 8.9 4.8 2.1 0.6 0.1 0.0 46.5 3
4 20.3% 100.0% 0.6 0.9 0.7 2.2 4.3 4.6 3.4 2.0 0.8 0.4 0.2 0.0 20.3 4
5 6.0% 99.0% 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.4 0.9 0.8 1.0 0.9 0.7 0.6 0.5 0.1 6.0 5
6 1.4% 89.9% 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.1 1.2 6
7 0.1% 83.3% 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.1 7
8 8
9 9
10 10
11 11
12 12
13 13
14 14
15 15
16 16
17 17
18 18
Total 100% 99.8% 0.4 25.2 1.1 2.3 2.3 6.0 12.8 14.6 14.4 9.3 5.4 2.5 1.5 1.0 0.8 0.2 25.6 74.2




Points



At large teams are selected based on the number of wins (points) against teams already in the championships. As a result, advancement is predicated on accumulating enough points before the last at-large selection. Accordingly, the points below are the total number of wins against automatic qualifiers or teams selected in the at-large process before the last selection. Minimum, maximum, and average points are number seen in 5,000 simulations of the NCAA Tournament.



Received By BeatingChance ReceivedAverage If >0Average
Florida State 99.9% 1.0 1.0
Arkansas 98.4% 1.0 1.0
New Mexico 96.3% 1.0 1.0
Michigan State 90.5% 1.0 0.9
Colorado St. 83.9% 1.0 0.8
Indiana 83.4% 1.0 0.8
Southern Utah 79.0% 1.0 0.8
North Carolina 70.4% 1.0 0.7
Oklahoma 58.7% 1.0 0.6
Iowa State 42.0% 1.0 0.4
Minnesota 35.0% 1.0 0.4
Tulsa 27.3% 1.0 0.3
Eastern Kentucky 22.6% 2.0 0.5
Princeton 14.7% 2.0 0.3
Lamar 13.6% 1.0 0.1
North Carolina St. 11.6% 1.0 0.1
Illinois 7.6% 1.0 0.1
Penn State 6.9% 1.0 0.1
Eastern Michigan 1.8% 1.0 0.0
Iowa 0.3% 1.0 0.0
Texas A&M 0.2% 1.0 0.0
Penn 0.2% 1.0 0.0
Columbia 0.1% 1.0 0.0
Bradley 0.0% 1.0 0.0
Dartmouth 0.0% 1.0 0.0
Total 9.8
Minimum 5.0
Maximum 17.0