Boise State
Men - Women
2013 - 2014 - 2015
Switch to All-time Team Page
RankNameGradeRating
45  David Elliott SR 31:31
118  Andrew Rafla FR 31:53
239  Michael Vennard FR 32:17
431  Louis McAfee FR 32:45
573  Dan Oekerman FR 32:59
638  Jack Curran FR 33:05
920  Aaron Back JR 33:31
975  Rhys Park FR 33:37
1,111  Melika Ghali FR 33:48
National Rank #35 of 311
West Region Rank #7 of 32
Chance of Advancing to Nationals 3.3%
Most Likely Finish 7th at Regional


National Champion 0.0%
Top 5 at Nationals 0.0%
Top 10 at Nationals 0.0%
Top 20 at Nationals 1.2%


Regional Champion 0.0%
Top 5 in Regional 4.5%
Top 10 in Regional 92.5%
Top 20 in Regional 100.0%


Race Performance Ratings


Times listed are adjusted ratings based on performance compared to other runners in race.


RaceDateTeam Rating David Elliott Andrew Rafla Michael Vennard Louis McAfee Dan Oekerman Jack Curran Aaron Back Rhys Park Melika Ghali
Roy Griak Invitational 09/27 785 31:17 31:56 32:42 33:16 35:38 33:37
Mountain West Championships 10/03 730 31:37 31:55 32:24 32:54 33:16 33:35 32:50 33:58
Wisconsin adidas Invitational 10/17 664 31:30 32:08 32:00 32:51 32:43 32:41 33:45
West Region Championships 11/14 705 31:46 31:39 32:31 32:32 32:59 33:26
NCAA Championship 11/22 31:46





NCAA Tournament Simulation


Based on results of 5,000 simulations of the NCAA Tournament. Numbers in tables represent percentage of times each outcome occured during simulation.



Team Results

Advances to RoundAve FinishAve Score Finishing Place
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31
NCAA Championship 3.3% 22.2 549 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.0
Region Championship 100% 7.8 242 0.4 4.1 20.7 24.2 21.5 13.1 8.4 4.3 2.1 0.8 0.2 0.0 0.0



Individual Results

NCAA ChampionshipAdvances to RoundAve Finish Finishing Place
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25
David Elliott 79.9% 48.1 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.5 0.6 0.6 0.7 1.2 0.9 0.8 0.9 0.9 1.2 1.5 1.2 1.3 1.2 0.9
Andrew Rafla 28.3% 86.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.0
Michael Vennard 3.6% 140.0
Louis McAfee 3.3% 202.8
Dan Oekerman 3.3% 217.2
Jack Curran 3.3% 224.8
Aaron Back 3.3% 244.6


RegionalAve Finish Finishing Place
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25
David Elliott 12.8 0.3 1.0 1.9 3.1 4.5 5.1 5.6 5.3 6.0 5.4 4.6 4.0 4.2 3.5 3.1 2.7 3.2 3.2 2.8 2.5 2.1 2.1 1.8 2.1 1.5
Andrew Rafla 27.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.5 0.7 0.7 1.1 1.5 1.7 2.2 2.3 2.6 2.4 2.4 2.8 3.5 3.0 2.8 3.7 3.2 3.8 3.2
Michael Vennard 45.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.8 0.6
Louis McAfee 68.3
Dan Oekerman 81.7
Jack Curran 88.9
Aaron Back 115.3




NCAA Championship Selection Detail

Total
Region Finish Chance of Finishing Chance of Advancing Auto At Large Selection No Adv Auto At Large Region Finish
1 2 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13
1 1
2 2
3 3
4 0.4% 86.4% 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 4
5 4.1% 71.4% 1.1 1.1 0.4 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.0 1.2 2.9 5
6 20.7% 0.1% 0.0 20.7 0.0 6
7 24.2% 24.2 7
8 21.5% 21.5 8
9 13.1% 13.1 9
10 8.4% 8.4 10
11 4.3% 4.3 11
12 2.1% 2.1 12
13 0.8% 0.8 13
14 0.2% 0.2 14
15 0.0% 0.0 15
16 0.0% 0.0 16
17 17
18 18
19 19
20 20
21 21
22 22
23 23
24 24
25 25
26 26
27 27
28 28
29 29
30 30
31 31
32 32
Total 100% 3.3% 0.1 1.3 1.2 0.4 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 96.7 0.0 3.3




Points



At large teams are selected based on the number of wins (points) against teams already in the championships. As a result, advancement is predicated on accumulating enough points before the last at-large selection. Accordingly, the points below are the total number of wins against automatic qualifiers or teams selected in the at-large process before the last selection. Minimum, maximum, and average points are number seen in 5,000 simulations of the NCAA Tournament.



Received By BeatingChance ReceivedAverage If >0Average
Princeton 14.7% 1.0 0.1
Lamar 13.6% 1.0 0.1
Illinois 7.6% 1.0 0.1
Texas-Arlington 0.4% 1.0 0.0
Missouri 0.3% 1.0 0.0
Texas A&M 0.2% 2.0 0.0
Columbia 0.1% 1.0 0.0
Dartmouth 0.0% 1.0 0.0
Total 0.4
Minimum 0.0
Maximum 4.0