Colorado
Men - Women
2013 - 2014 - 2015
Switch to All-time Team Page
RankNameGradeRating
2  Blake Theroux SR 30:50
7  Ammar Moussa JR 31:03
10  Ben Saarel SO 31:09
14  Pierce Murphy JR 31:11
16  Connor Winter JR 31:12
31  Jake Hurysz SR 31:22
394  Adam Peterman FR 32:40
National Rank #1 of 311
Mountain Region Rank #1 of 18
Chance of Advancing to Nationals 100.0%
Most Likely Finish 1st at Nationals


National Champion 74.3%
Top 5 at Nationals 99.1%
Top 10 at Nationals 100.0%
Top 20 at Nationals 100.0%


Regional Champion 97.8%
Top 5 in Regional 100.0%
Top 10 in Regional 100.0%
Top 20 in Regional 100.0%


Race Performance Ratings


Times listed are adjusted ratings based on performance compared to other runners in race.


RaceDateTeam Rating Blake Theroux Ammar Moussa Ben Saarel Pierce Murphy Connor Winter Jake Hurysz Adam Peterman
Rocky Mountain Shootout 10/04 117 30:46 30:53 31:12 30:48 31:24 31:22 32:51
ISU Pre-National Invitational (Blue Race) 10/18 137 30:48 31:08 31:00 31:13 31:15 31:11 32:23
Pac-12 Championships 10/31 171 31:03 31:12 31:18 31:17 31:05 31:44 31:54
Mountain Region Championships 11/14 201 31:15 31:20 31:17 31:12 31:14 33:16
NCAA Championship 11/22 101 30:51 30:48 30:50 31:11 31:04 31:17 32:57





NCAA Tournament Simulation


Based on results of 5,000 simulations of the NCAA Tournament. Numbers in tables represent percentage of times each outcome occured during simulation.



Team Results

Advances to RoundAve FinishAve Score Finishing Place
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31
NCAA Championship 100% 1.4 77 74.3 16.5 5.3 2.2 0.8 0.5 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.1
Region Championship 100% 1.0 28 97.8 1.9 0.2



Individual Results

NCAA ChampionshipAdvances to RoundAve Finish Finishing Place
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25
Blake Theroux 100% 3.6 23.6 13.9 8.5 6.2 4.6 4.3 3.7 2.7 2.4 2.1 2.2 1.8 1.3 1.1 1.2 1.2 1.1 0.9 1.0 1.1 0.8 0.7 0.9 0.7 0.7
Ammar Moussa 100% 12.1 3.1 5.9 5.5 5.8 5.1 4.3 4.2 3.7 3.6 3.0 3.0 2.6 2.6 2.2 2.1 1.8 1.8 1.7 1.9 1.5 1.4 1.4 1.2 1.3 1.8
Ben Saarel 100% 15.9 1.0 3.2 4.3 4.3 4.5 4.2 3.9 3.7 3.5 3.4 2.7 2.4 2.6 2.3 2.1 2.1 2.2 1.9 1.5 1.6 1.7 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.4
Pierce Murphy 100% 18.8 0.4 1.2 2.8 2.7 4.1 2.9 3.8 3.0 3.7 3.3 2.9 2.9 2.9 2.7 2.3 2.5 2.3 2.1 2.0 1.9 1.7 1.4 1.7 1.7 1.6
Connor Winter 100% 20.0 0.2 1.4 1.8 3.4 2.9 3.4 2.9 3.3 3.4 3.5 2.7 2.7 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.2 2.5 2.1 1.9 2.2 2.2 1.9 1.6 1.5 1.5
Jake Hurysz 100% 32.9 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.5 0.9 1.0 1.6 1.4 1.5 1.9 2.1 2.3 2.1 2.2 2.1 2.0 2.0 2.1 1.8 2.0 1.8 2.1 1.7 1.7
Adam Peterman 100% 211.5


RegionalAve Finish Finishing Place
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25
Blake Theroux 1.4 44.7 15.1 8.7 6.9 5.5 4.2 3.4 2.4 1.9 1.4 1.1 1.0 0.6 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.2 0.2 0.4 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.0 0.1
Ammar Moussa 3.9 11.0 17.2 12.6 10.8 9.2 7.4 5.7 5.3 3.9 3.4 2.3 1.9 1.4 0.8 1.1 0.8 0.7 0.6 0.6 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3
Ben Saarel 5.1 5.8 10.3 12.2 10.9 9.8 8.3 7.6 6.5 4.9 4.0 3.1 2.6 1.8 1.7 1.5 1.0 0.9 0.8 0.9 0.5 0.7 0.6 0.4 0.3 0.6
Pierce Murphy 5.9 2.1 7.9 10.9 11.5 9.8 8.9 7.7 7.1 5.9 4.7 3.9 2.7 2.0 1.9 1.6 1.3 1.2 1.2 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.6 0.4 0.6 0.4
Connor Winter 6.0 1.8 7.2 10.0 10.5 10.9 9.9 8.1 6.6 6.0 4.2 3.5 2.7 2.5 2.3 1.7 1.4 1.6 1.1 0.9 0.9 0.6 0.5 0.6 0.5 0.5
Jake Hurysz 8.8 0.2 0.8 2.5 5.2 7.4 9.0 10.5 8.3 8.0 7.3 5.3 4.1 3.7 3.3 2.8 2.2 2.0 1.8 1.7 1.5 1.3 1.1 1.1 1.2 0.9
Adam Peterman 47.4 0.0 0.0 0.0




NCAA Championship Selection Detail

Total
Region Finish Chance of Finishing Chance of Advancing Auto At Large Selection No Adv Auto At Large Region Finish
1 2 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13
1 97.8% 100.0% 97.8 97.8 1
2 1.9% 100.0% 1.9 1.9 2
3 0.2% 100.0% 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.2 3
4 4
5 5
6 6
7 7
8 8
9 9
10 10
11 11
12 12
13 13
14 14
15 15
16 16
17 17
18 18
Total 100% 100.0% 97.8 1.9 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 99.8 0.2




Points



At large teams are selected based on the number of wins (points) against teams already in the championships. As a result, advancement is predicated on accumulating enough points before the last at-large selection. Accordingly, the points below are the total number of wins against automatic qualifiers or teams selected in the at-large process before the last selection. Minimum, maximum, and average points are number seen in 5,000 simulations of the NCAA Tournament.



Received By BeatingChance ReceivedAverage If >0Average
Stanford 100.0% 1.0 1.0
Oregon 99.8% 2.0 2.0
UCLA 97.9% 1.0 1.0
Washington 96.4% 1.0 1.0
Texas 91.6% 1.0 0.9
Mississippi 90.9% 1.0 0.9
Georgetown 87.8% 1.0 0.9
Colorado St. 83.9% 1.0 0.8
Furman 65.6% 1.0 0.7
Tulsa 27.3% 1.0 0.3
North Carolina St. 11.6% 1.0 0.1
Penn State 6.9% 1.0 0.1
Eastern Michigan 1.8% 1.0 0.0
North Texas 0.8% 1.0 0.0
Texas-Arlington 0.4% 1.0 0.0
Cornell 0.3% 1.0 0.0
Missouri 0.3% 1.0 0.0
Iowa 0.3% 1.0 0.0
Yale 0.1% 1.0 0.0
Bradley 0.0% 1.0 0.0
Total 9.6
Minimum 4.0
Maximum 14.0