Michigan
Men - Women
2013 - 2014 - 2015
Switch to All-time Team Page
RankNameGradeRating
18  Mason Ferlic JR 31:13
83  Ben Flanagan SO 31:46
122  Tony Smoragiewicz JR 31:53
149  August Pappas JR 31:59
182  Aaron Baumgarten FR 32:06
258  George Kelly SO 32:21
359  Billy Bund FR 32:36
402  Nick Renberg SO 32:41
419  James Yau SR 32:44
454  Nicholas Posada JR 32:47
514  Will Burke FR 32:53
520  Micah Beller FR 32:54
619  Scotty Albaugh JR 33:03
681  Jarred Bratley SO 33:08
1,096  Alex Moran SO 33:47
1,239  Eddie Cunningham FR 33:59
1,374  Cody Snavely FR 34:08
1,692  Connor Mora SO 34:34
2,665  Austin Benoit FR 36:22
National Rank #13 of 311
Great Lakes Region Rank #2 of 31
Chance of Advancing to Nationals 99.6%
Most Likely Finish 10th at Nationals


National Champion 0.0%
Top 5 at Nationals 5.6%
Top 10 at Nationals 32.7%
Top 20 at Nationals 87.4%


Regional Champion 23.3%
Top 5 in Regional 99.9%
Top 10 in Regional 100.0%
Top 20 in Regional 100.0%


Race Performance Ratings


Times listed are adjusted ratings based on performance compared to other runners in race.


RaceDateTeam Rating Mason Ferlic Ben Flanagan Tony Smoragiewicz August Pappas Aaron Baumgarten George Kelly Billy Bund Nick Renberg James Yau Nicholas Posada Will Burke
Notre Dame Invitational (Blue) 10/03 393 31:05 31:48 31:40 31:58 31:49 32:32 32:17
Wisconsin adidas Invitational 10/17 446 31:16 31:51 31:41 32:03 31:59 32:39 32:50
Wisconsin adidas Invitational - B 10/17 873 32:22 32:36 32:40 32:52
Big Ten Conference Championship 11/02 453 31:20 31:43 31:51 32:10 31:54 32:25 33:05 32:43
Great Lakes Region Championships 11/14 587 31:48 31:54 32:44 32:01 32:18 32:10 33:27
NCAA Championship 11/22 422 30:56 31:32 31:59 31:41 33:01 32:23 32:47





NCAA Tournament Simulation


Based on results of 5,000 simulations of the NCAA Tournament. Numbers in tables represent percentage of times each outcome occured during simulation.



Team Results

Advances to RoundAve FinishAve Score Finishing Place
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31
NCAA Championship 99.6% 13.6 392 0.0 0.2 0.9 1.7 2.8 3.5 4.5 5.5 6.4 7.2 7.0 6.3 7.1 6.3 6.2 5.5 4.4 4.4 4.0 3.6 2.9 2.2 1.6 1.5 1.1 0.8 0.7 0.6 0.4 0.4 0.1
Region Championship 100% 2.3 76 23.3 41.6 22.6 10.9 1.5 0.1



Individual Results

NCAA ChampionshipAdvances to RoundAve Finish Finishing Place
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25
Mason Ferlic 100.0% 21.1 0.8 1.5 2.2 2.2 2.6 2.3 2.9 2.8 3.1 2.9 3.3 2.9 2.7 2.6 2.4 2.8 2.2 2.0 1.7 2.2 1.7 1.6 1.9 1.7 1.6
Ben Flanagan 99.6% 83.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.4
Tony Smoragiewicz 99.6% 104.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1
August Pappas 99.6% 119.3 0.0 0.1
Aaron Baumgarten 99.6% 137.0
George Kelly 99.6% 174.9
Billy Bund 99.6% 204.3


RegionalAve Finish Finishing Place
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25
Mason Ferlic 2.7 20.3 19.3 15.2 12.1 8.2 4.9 4.1 2.9 2.1 1.6 1.2 1.1 0.7 0.9 0.8 0.9 0.5 0.4 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.2
Ben Flanagan 11.4 0.1 0.4 1.6 3.2 5.5 6.5 6.7 6.5 6.9 5.7 5.1 4.8 4.8 3.7 3.6 3.6 3.2 3.0 2.8 2.5 2.1 1.6 1.8 1.7 1.2
Tony Smoragiewicz 15.0 0.1 0.4 0.9 2.1 2.9 4.5 5.0 4.9 5.0 5.6 5.4 4.2 4.7 4.5 3.6 3.7 3.3 3.5 3.3 3.3 2.9 2.7 2.1 2.1
August Pappas 18.0 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.9 1.3 2.1 3.1 3.8 3.9 4.7 4.3 4.5 4.6 4.1 4.1 4.3 4.4 3.9 3.2 3.2 3.0 2.8 3.0 2.7
Aaron Baumgarten 21.4 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.6 0.8 1.7 2.3 2.7 3.3 3.8 3.8 3.9 4.6 4.5 4.5 4.1 3.2 4.3 3.7 3.2 3.2 3.4
George Kelly 30.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.7 1.0 1.0 1.5 1.9 1.7 2.6 2.8 2.9 3.0 3.7 3.5 3.3
Billy Bund 41.0 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.5 0.6 1.0 0.8 1.2 1.3




NCAA Championship Selection Detail

Total
Region Finish Chance of Finishing Chance of Advancing Auto At Large Selection No Adv Auto At Large Region Finish
1 2 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13
1 23.3% 100.0% 23.3 23.3 1
2 41.6% 100.0% 41.6 41.6 2
3 22.6% 100.0% 6.1 3.8 1.9 5.6 3.7 1.3 0.2 0.0 22.6 3
4 10.9% 99.3% 0.9 0.3 0.2 1.3 1.0 1.0 1.2 1.7 1.5 0.9 0.5 0.3 0.1 10.8 4
5 1.5% 82.9% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.1 0.2 0.0 0.3 1.3 5
6 0.1% 0.1 6
7 7
8 8
9 9
10 10
11 11
12 12
13 13
14 14
15 15
16 16
17 17
18 18
19 19
20 20
21 21
22 22
23 23
24 24
25 25
26 26
27 27
28 28
29 29
30 30
31 31
Total 100% 99.6% 23.3 41.6 6.1 4.6 2.3 5.8 5.0 2.3 1.3 1.4 1.9 1.7 1.0 0.8 0.3 0.4 64.9 34.7




Points



At large teams are selected based on the number of wins (points) against teams already in the championships. As a result, advancement is predicated on accumulating enough points before the last at-large selection. Accordingly, the points below are the total number of wins against automatic qualifiers or teams selected in the at-large process before the last selection. Minimum, maximum, and average points are number seen in 5,000 simulations of the NCAA Tournament.



Received By BeatingChance ReceivedAverage If >0Average
Florida State 99.9% 1.0 1.0
BYU 99.0% 2.0 2.0
Arkansas 98.4% 1.0 1.0
Providence 98.3% 1.0 1.0
New Mexico 96.3% 2.0 1.9
Michigan State 90.5% 2.0 1.8
Colorado St. 83.9% 1.0 0.8
Indiana 83.4% 2.0 1.7
Southern Utah 79.0% 1.0 0.8
North Carolina 70.4% 1.0 0.7
Oklahoma 58.7% 1.0 0.6
Iowa State 42.0% 1.0 0.4
Minnesota 35.0% 2.0 0.7
Tulsa 27.3% 1.0 0.3
Eastern Kentucky 22.6% 2.0 0.5
Princeton 14.7% 2.0 0.3
Lamar 13.6% 1.0 0.1
North Carolina St. 11.6% 1.0 0.1
Illinois 7.6% 2.0 0.2
Penn State 6.9% 2.0 0.1
Eastern Michigan 1.8% 1.0 0.0
Iowa 0.3% 2.0 0.0
Texas A&M 0.2% 1.0 0.0
Penn 0.2% 1.0 0.0
Columbia 0.1% 1.0 0.0
Bradley 0.0% 1.0 0.0
Dartmouth 0.0% 1.0 0.0
Total 16.0
Minimum 9.0
Maximum 25.0