Minnesota
Men - Women
2013 - 2014 - 2015
Switch to All-time Team Page
RankNameGradeRating
58  Aaron Bartnik JR 31:38
180  Adam Zutz JR 32:06
245  Obsa Ali FR 32:18
271  Christian Skaret JR 32:24
300  Blayne Dulian SR 32:27
565  Riley Macon SO 32:58
566  Charlie Lawrence FR 32:58
612  Wayde Hall FR 33:03
752  Eric Colvin FR 33:15
754  Brad Woodford FR 33:16
853  Alex Brend JR 33:26
922  Matt Jergenson JR 33:31
1,064  Derek Wiebke FR 33:44
1,191  Matt Welch FR 33:55
National Rank #32 of 311
Midwest Region Rank #5 of 33
Chance of Advancing to Nationals 49.0%
Most Likely Finish 3rd at Regional


National Champion 0.0%
Top 5 at Nationals 0.0%
Top 10 at Nationals 0.5%
Top 20 at Nationals 12.6%


Regional Champion 2.8%
Top 5 in Regional 79.7%
Top 10 in Regional 100.0%
Top 20 in Regional 100.0%


Race Performance Ratings


Times listed are adjusted ratings based on performance compared to other runners in race.


RaceDateTeam Rating Aaron Bartnik Adam Zutz Obsa Ali Christian Skaret Blayne Dulian Riley Macon Charlie Lawrence Wayde Hall Eric Colvin Brad Woodford Alex Brend
Roy Griak Invitational 09/27 461 31:13 31:38 32:01 32:15 32:22 32:49 32:08 32:46 33:10 32:53 31:57
Wisconsin adidas Invitational 10/17 629 31:32 31:58 32:32 32:24 32:11 32:55 33:50
Jim Drews/Tori Neubauer Invitational 10/18 1081 32:53 33:53 33:25 33:03
Big Ten Conference Championship 11/02 698 31:35 32:15 32:05 32:29 32:56 33:12 33:13 33:47 33:50
Midwest Region Championships 11/14 754 31:50 32:26 32:33 32:24 32:27 32:53 33:18
NCAA Championship 11/22 32:11





NCAA Tournament Simulation


Based on results of 5,000 simulations of the NCAA Tournament. Numbers in tables represent percentage of times each outcome occured during simulation.



Team Results

Advances to RoundAve FinishAve Score Finishing Place
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31
NCAA Championship 49.0% 23.7 577 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.3 0.6 0.8 1.0 1.4 1.3 2.1 2.2 2.0 2.8 3.2 3.1 3.3 3.7 3.6 3.2 4.1 3.4 3.5 2.6
Region Championship 100% 4.0 139 2.8 20.1 20.7 18.4 17.7 13.0 4.9 1.5 0.7 0.2 0.0



Individual Results

NCAA ChampionshipAdvances to RoundAve Finish Finishing Place
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25
Aaron Bartnik 84.1% 67.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.2 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.4 0.3 0.5 0.6 0.4 0.8 0.6 0.9 0.8 0.7
Adam Zutz 50.2% 125.4
Obsa Ali 49.0% 157.8
Christian Skaret 49.0% 170.1
Blayne Dulian 49.0% 178.4
Riley Macon 49.1% 227.6
Charlie Lawrence 49.0% 227.1


RegionalAve Finish Finishing Place
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25
Aaron Bartnik 6.5 3.3 6.3 8.1 10.4 9.6 8.8 6.9 6.2 5.3 4.6 3.7 2.7 2.5 2.3 1.9 1.8 1.5 1.5 1.1 1.0 0.9 0.8 0.8 0.7 0.6
Adam Zutz 18.5 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.5 1.0 1.6 2.2 3.5 3.3 3.6 4.4 4.2 4.4 4.3 4.0 3.9 3.8 3.3 3.3 2.8 2.7 2.8 2.5 2.1 2.3
Obsa Ali 27.5 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.7 1.0 1.4 1.8 2.0 2.4 2.6 3.1 3.1 3.1 3.1 3.4 3.6 2.8 2.5 3.0 2.8
Christian Skaret 31.9 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.5 0.9 1.0 1.3 1.7 1.9 1.9 2.1 2.7 2.7 2.6 2.9 3.0 3.3 2.6
Blayne Dulian 36.7 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.5 0.4 0.7 0.9 1.0 1.4 1.7 1.7 1.7 2.1 2.5 2.4 2.5 2.2
Riley Macon 69.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Charlie Lawrence 69.5 0.0




NCAA Championship Selection Detail

Total
Region Finish Chance of Finishing Chance of Advancing Auto At Large Selection No Adv Auto At Large Region Finish
1 2 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13
1 2.8% 100.0% 2.8 2.8 1
2 20.1% 100.0% 20.1 20.1 2
3 20.7% 70.3% 0.0 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.5 0.6 0.8 1.2 2.6 3.9 3.8 6.1 14.6 3
4 18.4% 42.2% 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.5 0.6 2.1 4.2 10.6 7.8 4
5 17.7% 19.4% 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.5 0.4 2.3 14.2 3.4 5
6 13.0% 2.8% 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.2 12.6 0.4 6
7 4.9% 4.9 7
8 1.5% 1.5 8
9 0.7% 0.7 9
10 0.2% 0.2 10
11 0.0% 0.0 11
12 12
13 13
14 14
15 15
16 16
17 17
18 18
19 19
20 20
21 21
22 22
23 23
24 24
25 25
26 26
27 27
28 28
29 29
30 30
31 31
32 32
33 33
Total 100% 49.0% 2.8 20.1 0.0 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.5 0.8 1.2 1.8 3.9 6.4 10.5 51.0 22.9 26.1




Points



At large teams are selected based on the number of wins (points) against teams already in the championships. As a result, advancement is predicated on accumulating enough points before the last at-large selection. Accordingly, the points below are the total number of wins against automatic qualifiers or teams selected in the at-large process before the last selection. Minimum, maximum, and average points are number seen in 5,000 simulations of the NCAA Tournament.



Received By BeatingChance ReceivedAverage If >0Average
Texas 91.6% 1.0 0.9
Michigan State 90.5% 1.0 0.9
North Carolina 70.4% 1.0 0.7
Iowa State 42.0% 1.0 0.4
Eastern Kentucky 22.6% 1.0 0.2
Princeton 14.7% 1.0 0.1
Lamar 13.6% 1.0 0.1
Illinois 7.6% 2.0 0.2
Texas-Arlington 0.4% 1.0 0.0
Missouri 0.3% 1.0 0.0
Iowa 0.3% 1.0 0.0
Texas A&M 0.2% 2.0 0.0
Columbia 0.1% 1.0 0.0
Dartmouth 0.0% 1.0 0.0
Total 3.6
Minimum 1.0
Maximum 8.0