Northern Arizona
Men - Women
2013 - 2014 - 2015
Switch to All-time Team Page
RankNameGradeRating
6  Futsum Zienasellassie JR 31:03
20  Matt McElroy SR 31:15
33  Caleb Hoover SR 31:25
92  Tyler Byrne SR 31:49
209  Alejandro Montano JR 32:12
224  Nathan Weitz JR 32:15
291  Cody Reed SR 32:26
515  Cory Glines SO 32:53
611  Bahlbi Gebreyohanns SR 33:03
1,472  Harvey Nelson FR 34:16
National Rank #6 of 311
Mountain Region Rank #2 of 18
Chance of Advancing to Nationals 100.0%
Most Likely Finish 5th at Nationals


National Champion 0.3%
Top 5 at Nationals 34.3%
Top 10 at Nationals 79.9%
Top 20 at Nationals 99.0%


Regional Champion 1.7%
Top 5 in Regional 99.8%
Top 10 in Regional 100.0%
Top 20 in Regional 100.0%


Race Performance Ratings


Times listed are adjusted ratings based on performance compared to other runners in race.


RaceDateTeam Rating Futsum Zienasellassie Matt McElroy Caleb Hoover Tyler Byrne Alejandro Montano Nathan Weitz Cody Reed Cory Glines Bahlbi Gebreyohanns Harvey Nelson
Washington Invitational 10/04 371 31:06 31:14 31:27 32:21 32:06 32:08 32:41 32:54 32:36 34:18
Wisconsin adidas Invitational 10/17 355 31:00 31:09 31:26 32:07 32:26 32:06 32:22
Big Sky Conference Championships 11/01 446 31:35 31:35 31:41 32:01 32:39 32:04 33:13 34:17
Mountain Region Championships 11/14 284 31:05 31:12 31:22 31:32 32:01 32:25 33:22
NCAA Championship 11/22 235 30:44 31:08 31:11 31:29 31:56 32:01 32:16





NCAA Tournament Simulation


Based on results of 5,000 simulations of the NCAA Tournament. Numbers in tables represent percentage of times each outcome occured during simulation.



Team Results

Advances to RoundAve FinishAve Score Finishing Place
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31
NCAA Championship 100% 7.7 273 0.3 3.2 6.8 10.9 13.0 11.4 10.9 10.1 7.4 6.0 4.7 3.8 3.3 2.0 1.6 1.1 1.0 0.9 0.5 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0
Region Championship 100% 2.4 80 1.7 65.6 25.0 6.3 1.1 0.2 0.0



Individual Results

NCAA ChampionshipAdvances to RoundAve Finish Finishing Place
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25
Futsum Zienasellassie 100% 11.3 5.4 5.6 6.7 5.4 5.0 4.5 4.1 3.6 3.4 2.9 2.7 2.8 2.7 2.4 2.1 2.1 1.8 1.5 1.4 1.6 1.5 1.0 1.3 1.3 1.2
Matt McElroy 100% 22.3 0.5 1.1 1.7 2.4 2.2 2.9 2.4 3.0 2.5 2.3 2.8 2.5 2.6 2.3 2.7 2.3 2.1 2.3 2.2 2.2 2.2 2.0 1.7 1.7 1.5
Caleb Hoover 100% 38.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.5 0.8 0.9 1.1 0.9 0.9 0.9 1.6 1.5 1.8 1.6 1.7 2.0 1.5 1.9 1.4 1.8 1.8 1.9 2.1 1.8
Tyler Byrne 100% 90.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.1
Alejandro Montano 100% 151.9
Nathan Weitz 100% 159.5
Cody Reed 100% 186.5


RegionalAve Finish Finishing Place
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25
Futsum Zienasellassie 4.0 15.7 13.6 10.8 9.7 8.6 7.5 5.4 5.6 4.3 3.3 2.5 1.9 1.5 1.4 1.2 1.0 0.9 0.8 0.6 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.4 0.4 0.2
Matt McElroy 6.8 3.3 6.4 7.5 8.4 8.8 9.1 8.4 7.3 6.5 5.8 4.2 3.2 2.9 2.2 1.8 1.5 1.2 1.3 1.5 1.2 0.9 0.8 0.8 0.5 0.6
Caleb Hoover 9.7 0.3 1.4 3.1 3.8 5.4 6.6 7.7 8.5 8.0 7.2 5.8 5.3 3.7 3.3 3.2 2.8 2.6 2.2 1.9 1.4 1.6 1.1 1.1 1.4 1.2
Tyler Byrne 20.9 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.2 0.5 1.2 1.6 2.3 3.5 4.4 4.3 4.1 4.3 4.3 4.4 3.7 3.7 3.9 3.8 3.9 3.3 2.5 3.3
Alejandro Montano 34.4 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.6 0.7 1.0 1.2 1.5 1.6 2.2 2.5 2.6 2.9
Nathan Weitz 35.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.5 0.5 0.9 1.1 1.8 1.7 1.6 2.0 2.9
Cody Reed 40.8 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.7




NCAA Championship Selection Detail

Total
Region Finish Chance of Finishing Chance of Advancing Auto At Large Selection No Adv Auto At Large Region Finish
1 2 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13
1 1.7% 100.0% 1.7 1.7 1
2 65.6% 100.0% 65.6 65.6 2
3 25.0% 100.0% 15.6 7.1 2.0 0.3 0.0 0.0 25.0 3
4 6.3% 100.0% 0.2 0.5 0.3 1.1 1.7 1.4 0.6 0.3 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.1 6.3 4
5 1.1% 100.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.0 1.1 5
6 0.2% 100.0% 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.2 6
7 0.0% 100.0% 0.0 0.0 7
8 8
9 9
10 10
11 11
12 12
13 13
14 14
15 15
16 16
17 17
18 18
Total 100% 100.0% 1.7 65.6 15.6 7.3 2.5 0.6 1.1 1.8 1.5 0.9 0.6 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.2 0.0 67.3 32.7




Points



At large teams are selected based on the number of wins (points) against teams already in the championships. As a result, advancement is predicated on accumulating enough points before the last at-large selection. Accordingly, the points below are the total number of wins against automatic qualifiers or teams selected in the at-large process before the last selection. Minimum, maximum, and average points are number seen in 5,000 simulations of the NCAA Tournament.



Received By BeatingChance ReceivedAverage If >0Average
Stanford 100.0% 1.0 1.0
Florida State 99.9% 1.0 1.0
Michigan 99.3% 1.0 1.0
BYU 99.0% 1.0 1.0
Arkansas 98.4% 1.0 1.0
Providence 98.3% 1.0 1.0
UCLA 97.9% 2.0 2.0
Villanova 96.6% 1.0 1.0
Washington 96.4% 2.0 1.9
New Mexico 96.3% 1.0 1.0
Virginia 90.9% 1.0 0.9
Michigan State 90.5% 1.0 0.9
Indiana 83.4% 2.0 1.7
Southern Utah 79.0% 1.0 0.8
North Carolina 70.4% 1.0 0.7
Oklahoma 58.7% 2.0 1.2
Iowa State 42.0% 1.0 0.4
Minnesota 35.0% 1.0 0.4
Eastern Kentucky 22.6% 1.0 0.2
Princeton 14.7% 1.0 0.1
Lamar 13.6% 1.0 0.1
Illinois 7.6% 1.0 0.1
Texas A&M 0.2% 1.0 0.0
Columbia 0.1% 1.0 0.0
Dartmouth 0.0% 1.0 0.0
Total 19.3
Minimum 13.0
Maximum 24.0