Oregon
Men - Women
2013 - 2014 - 2015
Switch to All-time Team Page
RankNameGradeRating
1  Edward Cheserek SO 30:47
4  Eric Jenkins SR 31:01
57  Daniel Winn SR 31:38
63  Tanguy Pepiot SR 31:40
135  Cole Watson SR 31:56
144  Matthew Melancon JR 31:58
159  Travis Neuman FR 32:01
225  Blake Haney FR 32:15
232  Sam Prakel FR 32:17
255  Jake Leingang SO 32:20
National Rank #3 of 311
West Region Rank #2 of 32
Chance of Advancing to Nationals 100.0%
Most Likely Finish 3rd at Nationals


National Champion 2.6%
Top 5 at Nationals 65.6%
Top 10 at Nationals 94.2%
Top 20 at Nationals 99.8%


Regional Champion 19.1%
Top 5 in Regional 100.0%
Top 10 in Regional 100.0%
Top 20 in Regional 100.0%


Race Performance Ratings


Times listed are adjusted ratings based on performance compared to other runners in race.


RaceDateTeam Rating Edward Cheserek Eric Jenkins Daniel Winn Tanguy Pepiot Cole Watson Matthew Melancon Travis Neuman Blake Haney Sam Prakel Jake Leingang
Coast-to-Coast Battle in Beantown 09/26 389 31:30 31:30 31:46 31:58 32:02 31:48 32:38
Carles Bowles Willamette Invitational (Cardinal) 10/04 724 32:16 31:54
ISU Pre-National Invitational (Blue Race) 10/18 263 30:46 30:52 31:32 31:41 31:53 32:23 32:24
Pac-12 Championships 10/31 247 30:37 30:52 31:37 31:48 31:37 32:02 32:08 32:28 31:50
West Region Championships 11/14 342 31:22 31:27 31:44 31:44 31:54 31:46 32:31
NCAA Championship 11/22 265 30:38 30:42 31:30 31:23 32:19 32:37 32:30





NCAA Tournament Simulation


Based on results of 5,000 simulations of the NCAA Tournament. Numbers in tables represent percentage of times each outcome occured during simulation.



Team Results

Advances to RoundAve FinishAve Score Finishing Place
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31
NCAA Championship 100% 5.1 208 2.6 13.5 19.3 16.9 13.3 9.6 7.6 4.9 4.1 2.3 2.0 1.2 0.7 0.5 0.4 0.3 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0
Region Championship 100% 2.3 70 19.1 39.7 32.8 7.3 1.1 0.0



Individual Results

NCAA ChampionshipAdvances to RoundAve Finish Finishing Place
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25
Edward Cheserek 100% 2.7 31.3 13.1 7.5 5.8 4.4 3.9 3.6 3.0 2.0 2.0 1.8 1.6 1.4 1.3 0.9 1.0 0.9 0.8 0.7 0.7 0.4 0.7 0.6 0.5 0.5
Eric Jenkins 100% 10.0 4.8 8.6 6.8 6.0 5.4 4.7 4.0 3.7 3.3 2.8 2.6 2.4 2.2 2.2 2.0 2.2 1.8 1.6 1.7 1.5 1.3 1.4 1.1 1.3 1.3
Daniel Winn 100% 63.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.4 0.6 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.5 0.5 0.9 1.0
Tanguy Pepiot 100% 69.0 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.8 0.8 0.9
Cole Watson 100% 110.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Matthew Melancon 100% 117.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Travis Neuman 100% 125.7 0.0 0.0


RegionalAve Finish Finishing Place
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25
Edward Cheserek 1.0 53.6 15.0 8.1 6.0 3.8 2.8 2.3 1.4 1.2 0.7 0.8 0.8 0.7 0.5 0.4 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0
Eric Jenkins 2.9 13.4 24.6 12.9 9.3 7.6 5.3 4.2 3.3 2.8 2.5 1.9 1.6 1.1 1.1 1.1 0.7 0.6 0.6 0.5 0.7 0.3 0.5 0.4 0.4 0.3
Daniel Winn 16.7 0.1 0.6 1.4 2.2 2.8 3.5 4.3 4.1 4.5 4.3 4.5 3.7 4.4 3.7 3.8 3.4 3.1 3.3 3.0 3.1 2.5 2.2 2.5 2.2
Tanguy Pepiot 18.3 0.0 0.2 0.5 1.3 1.9 3.1 3.1 3.8 3.8 4.3 4.7 4.2 4.3 3.4 3.5 3.7 2.9 3.8 2.9 3.2 2.3 2.8 2.5 2.2
Cole Watson 29.1 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.5 0.8 1.1 1.2 1.5 1.4 1.9 2.2 2.8 2.6 2.8 3.1 2.7 2.9 3.4 3.0 3.2
Matthew Melancon 30.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.5 0.8 0.8 0.8 1.4 1.9 1.9 1.9 2.6 2.6 2.7 3.1 2.9 2.9 3.2 3.4
Travis Neuman 33.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.7 0.8 0.8 1.1 1.6 1.7 2.1 2.3 2.0 2.7 2.4 2.9 3.3




NCAA Championship Selection Detail

Total
Region Finish Chance of Finishing Chance of Advancing Auto At Large Selection No Adv Auto At Large Region Finish
1 2 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13
1 19.1% 100.0% 19.1 19.1 1
2 39.7% 100.0% 39.7 39.7 2
3 32.8% 100.0% 13.0 8.3 4.0 2.3 1.9 1.2 0.8 0.5 0.4 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 32.8 3
4 7.3% 100.0% 2.7 2.4 1.0 0.5 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 7.3 4
5 1.1% 100.0% 0.4 0.5 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 1.1 5
6 0.0% 100.0% 0.0 0.0 6
7 7
8 8
9 9
10 10
11 11
12 12
13 13
14 14
15 15
16 16
17 17
18 18
19 19
20 20
21 21
22 22
23 23
24 24
25 25
26 26
27 27
28 28
29 29
30 30
31 31
32 32
Total 100% 100.0% 19.1 39.7 13.0 11.0 6.7 3.8 2.5 1.6 1.0 0.6 0.5 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 58.8 41.2




Points



At large teams are selected based on the number of wins (points) against teams already in the championships. As a result, advancement is predicated on accumulating enough points before the last at-large selection. Accordingly, the points below are the total number of wins against automatic qualifiers or teams selected in the at-large process before the last selection. Minimum, maximum, and average points are number seen in 5,000 simulations of the NCAA Tournament.



Received By BeatingChance ReceivedAverage If >0Average
Syracuse 100.0% 1.0 1.0
Stanford 100.0% 1.0 1.0
Providence 98.3% 1.0 1.0
UCLA 97.9% 1.0 1.0
Washington 96.4% 1.0 1.0
Texas 91.6% 1.0 0.9
Mississippi 90.9% 1.0 0.9
Georgetown 87.8% 2.0 1.8
Colorado St. 83.9% 1.0 0.8
Furman 65.6% 1.0 0.7
Tulsa 27.3% 1.0 0.3
North Carolina St. 11.6% 1.0 0.1
Penn State 6.9% 1.0 0.1
Eastern Michigan 1.8% 1.0 0.0
North Texas 0.8% 1.0 0.0
Texas-Arlington 0.4% 1.0 0.0
Cornell 0.3% 2.0 0.0
Iowa 0.3% 1.0 0.0
Missouri 0.3% 1.0 0.0
Columbia 0.1% 1.0 0.0
Yale 0.1% 1.0 0.0
Bradley 0.0% 1.0 0.0
Dartmouth 0.0% 1.0 0.0
Total 10.5
Minimum 5.0
Maximum 14.0