Penn
Men - Women
2013 - 2014 - 2015
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RankNameGradeRating
34  Thomas Awad JR 31:25
367  Brendan Shearn SO 32:37
405  Conner Paez SR 32:41
453  Nicholas Tuck SO 32:47
628  Brendan Smith JR 33:04
742  Ross Wilson FR 33:15
801  Lyle Wistar SO 33:20
806  John Trueman SR 33:21
1,046  Christopher Hatler SO 33:43
1,218  Christopher Luciano FR 33:58
1,219  Thomas Connelly FR 33:58
1,230  Clark Shurtleff JR 33:58
1,371  William Meadows JR 34:07
1,716  Patrick Hally FR 34:35
1,801  John Huemmler SO 34:43
2,617  Keaton Naff JR 36:14
National Rank #50 of 311
Mid-Atlantic Region Rank #6 of 33
Chance of Advancing to Nationals 0.2%
Most Likely Finish 6th at Regional


National Champion 0.0%
Top 5 at Nationals 0.0%
Top 10 at Nationals 0.0%
Top 20 at Nationals 0.0%


Regional Champion 0.0%
Top 5 in Regional 28.1%
Top 10 in Regional 100.0%
Top 20 in Regional 100.0%


Race Performance Ratings


Times listed are adjusted ratings based on performance compared to other runners in race.


RaceDateTeam Rating Thomas Awad Brendan Shearn Conner Paez Nicholas Tuck Brendan Smith Ross Wilson Lyle Wistar John Trueman Christopher Hatler Christopher Luciano Thomas Connelly
Notre Dame Invitational (Blue) 10/03 824 31:20 32:30 33:41 32:50 33:07 32:56 33:34
Lehigh Paul Short Run (Gold) 10/04 1178 33:09 33:42 34:32 33:57
Princeton Invitational 10/18 927 31:51 32:41 33:07 33:27 33:16 33:07
Ivy League Heptagonal Championships 11/01 829 31:49 32:44 32:27 32:48 32:51 33:02 33:55 33:08 33:43 33:22
Mid-Atlantic Region Championships 11/14 819 31:52 32:33 32:20 32:42 33:04 33:24 33:32
NCAA Championship 11/22 31:05





NCAA Tournament Simulation


Based on results of 5,000 simulations of the NCAA Tournament. Numbers in tables represent percentage of times each outcome occured during simulation.



Team Results

Advances to RoundAve FinishAve Score Finishing Place
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31
NCAA Championship 0.2% 25.3 604 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0
Region Championship 100% 5.7 171 0.2 1.0 5.3 21.6 67.8 3.2 0.7 0.2 0.1



Individual Results

NCAA ChampionshipAdvances to RoundAve Finish Finishing Place
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25
Thomas Awad 98.1% 39.7 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.5 0.5 0.8 0.9 1.2 1.0 1.0 0.8 1.4 1.4 1.4 1.7 1.4 1.6 1.8 1.8 1.8 1.6 1.6 1.4 1.5 1.4
Brendan Shearn 0.6% 171.0
Conner Paez 0.4% 176.5
Nicholas Tuck 0.3% 180.5
Brendan Smith 0.2% 207.0
Ross Wilson 0.2% 237.0
Lyle Wistar 0.2% 233.0


RegionalAve Finish Finishing Place
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25
Thomas Awad 1.9 17.4 36.3 11.7 6.5 5.1 4.0 2.9 2.3 2.0 2.1 1.5 1.1 0.9 0.9 0.8 0.7 0.5 0.5 0.3 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.1
Brendan Shearn 34.8 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.5 0.7 0.8 0.8 1.4 1.5 1.9 2.1 2.9 2.7 2.5
Conner Paez 37.5 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.7 1.0 1.2 1.3 1.7 1.8 2.3
Nicholas Tuck 40.8 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.5 0.4 0.4 0.7 0.9 1.0 1.3
Brendan Smith 52.2 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.0
Ross Wilson 59.2
Lyle Wistar 62.1




NCAA Championship Selection Detail

Total
Region Finish Chance of Finishing Chance of Advancing Auto At Large Selection No Adv Auto At Large Region Finish
1 2 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13
1 1
2 0.2% 100.0% 0.2 0.2 2
3 1.0% 1.9% 0.0 1.0 0.0 3
4 5.3% 5.3 4
5 21.6% 21.6 5
6 67.8% 67.8 6
7 3.2% 3.2 7
8 0.7% 0.7 8
9 0.2% 0.2 9
10 0.1% 0.1 10
11 11
12 12
13 13
14 14
15 15
16 16
17 17
18 18
19 19
20 20
21 21
22 22
23 23
24 24
25 25
26 26
27 27
28 28
29 29
30 30
31 31
32 32
33 33
Total 100% 0.2% 0.2 0.0 99.8 0.2 0.0




Points



At large teams are selected based on the number of wins (points) against teams already in the championships. As a result, advancement is predicated on accumulating enough points before the last at-large selection. Accordingly, the points below are the total number of wins against automatic qualifiers or teams selected in the at-large process before the last selection. Minimum, maximum, and average points are number seen in 5,000 simulations of the NCAA Tournament.



Received By BeatingChance ReceivedAverage If >0Average
Eastern Michigan 1.8% 1.0 0.0
Iowa 0.3% 1.0 0.0
Yale 0.1% 1.0 0.0
Columbia 0.1% 1.0 0.0
Bradley 0.0% 1.0 0.0
Dartmouth 0.0% 1.0 0.0
Total 0.0
Minimum 0.0
Maximum 1.0