Portland
Men - Women
2013 - 2014 - 2015
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RankNameGradeRating
17  Scott Fauble SR 31:13
37  Reid Buchanan SR 31:26
52  William Kincaid SR 31:32
61  David Perry SR 31:39
71  Timo Goehler SR 31:42
104  Danny Martinez SO 31:51
314  Jeff Thies FR 32:30
333  Alex Dillard SO 32:33
341  Alex Bowns SO 32:34
382  Keegan Symmes FR 32:39
410  Griffin Hay SO 32:42
886  Justin Rocereto 33:29
921  Sean O'Hollearn JR 33:31
1,260  Chris Borg SR 34:00
1,545  Will Baker-Robinson SO 34:23
1,924  Ben Forsee SO 34:54
2,225  Andy Holstrom SO 35:24
3,224  Nick Shindler SO 40:13
National Rank #4 of 311
West Region Rank #3 of 32
Chance of Advancing to Nationals 100.0%
Most Likely Finish 3rd at Nationals


National Champion 2.8%
Top 5 at Nationals 57.7%
Top 10 at Nationals 89.8%
Top 20 at Nationals 99.5%


Regional Champion 17.8%
Top 5 in Regional 99.9%
Top 10 in Regional 100.0%
Top 20 in Regional 100.0%


Race Performance Ratings


Times listed are adjusted ratings based on performance compared to other runners in race.


RaceDateTeam Rating Scott Fauble Reid Buchanan William Kincaid David Perry Timo Goehler Danny Martinez Jeff Thies Alex Dillard Alex Bowns Keegan Symmes Griffin Hay
Washington Invitational 10/04 859 32:19 32:20 32:21 32:33
Portland State Viking Classic 10/04 1349
Wisconsin adidas Invitational 10/17 361 31:08 31:25 31:25 31:51 32:12 32:20 32:42
Wisconsin adidas Invitational - B 10/17 33:28 32:39
Beaver Classic 10/24 1214
West Coast Conference Championships 11/01 427 31:37 31:41 31:36 32:01 31:50 32:40 32:33 32:29 32:50
West Region Championships 11/14 390 31:27 31:38 31:38 31:41 32:02 32:08 32:22
NCAA Championship 11/22 209 30:53 31:06 31:36 31:22 31:30





NCAA Tournament Simulation


Based on results of 5,000 simulations of the NCAA Tournament. Numbers in tables represent percentage of times each outcome occured during simulation.



Team Results

Advances to RoundAve FinishAve Score Finishing Place
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31
NCAA Championship 100.0% 5.8 225 2.8 10.7 15.8 15.7 12.7 10.5 7.9 5.5 4.5 3.7 2.3 1.9 1.6 1.3 0.7 0.8 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0
Region Championship 100% 2.4 75 17.8 32.4 39.2 8.9 1.5 0.1 0.0



Individual Results

NCAA ChampionshipAdvances to RoundAve Finish Finishing Place
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25
Scott Fauble 100.0% 21.0 0.8 1.7 2.0 2.5 2.8 2.8 3.3 2.9 3.2 2.9 3.0 2.5 2.4 2.4 2.4 2.4 1.9 2.2 1.9 1.9 2.1 1.8 1.7 1.6 1.5
Reid Buchanan 100% 38.7 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.7 1.1 1.0 1.1 1.2 1.5 1.8 1.3 1.7 1.8 1.5 1.6 1.8 1.9 2.1 1.7 1.7 1.9
William Kincaid 100.0% 52.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.6 0.8 0.6 0.6 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.3 1.2 1.4 1.2 1.4 1.4
David Perry 100.0% 66.5 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.7 0.6 0.6 1.0 0.8
Timo Goehler 100.0% 74.8 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.5 0.5 0.4 0.5 0.6
Danny Martinez 100.0% 98.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.1
Jeff Thies 100.0% 193.4


RegionalAve Finish Finishing Place
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25
Scott Fauble 5.8 4.2 8.9 10.0 10.2 10.4 8.0 6.7 5.9 4.7 3.8 3.2 2.3 2.2 2.1 1.8 1.7 1.4 1.3 0.9 1.1 1.1 0.8 0.7 0.6 0.8
Reid Buchanan 10.2 0.5 1.9 3.4 5.2 6.2 7.2 6.6 6.9 5.7 5.4 4.8 4.4 3.7 3.4 3.0 2.7 2.2 2.1 1.9 1.8 1.9 1.5 1.5 1.3 1.3
William Kincaid 13.4 0.0 0.4 1.1 2.3 3.7 4.8 5.5 5.2 5.5 5.3 5.3 4.9 4.2 4.1 3.6 2.9 2.6 2.4 2.6 2.2 2.4 2.3 2.1 1.5 1.7
David Perry 17.6 0.0 0.2 0.7 1.1 1.9 2.7 3.7 3.9 4.5 4.1 4.9 4.6 3.9 4.3 3.8 3.2 3.4 3.0 3.2 2.5 2.6 2.6 2.4 2.7
Timo Goehler 19.5 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.7 1.3 1.8 2.7 3.3 4.3 3.7 3.7 4.0 3.9 4.2 4.0 3.9 3.3 3.3 3.2 3.1 2.8 2.7 2.8 2.8
Danny Martinez 25.1 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.7 0.8 1.5 1.4 2.4 2.7 3.1 3.1 3.7 3.6 3.5 3.2 3.4 3.2 3.3 3.5 3.0 3.1
Jeff Thies 54.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1




NCAA Championship Selection Detail

Total
Region Finish Chance of Finishing Chance of Advancing Auto At Large Selection No Adv Auto At Large Region Finish
1 2 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13
1 17.8% 100.0% 17.8 17.8 1
2 32.4% 100.0% 32.4 32.4 2
3 39.2% 100.0% 18.8 14.8 4.8 0.8 0.1 0.0 0.0 39.2 3
4 8.9% 100.0% 3.8 3.4 1.3 0.3 0.1 0.1 8.9 4
5 1.5% 100.0% 0.6 0.6 0.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.5 5
6 0.1% 100.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 6
7 7
8 0.0% 0.0 8
9 9
10 10
11 11
12 12
13 13
14 14
15 15
16 16
17 17
18 18
19 19
20 20
21 21
22 22
23 23
24 24
25 25
26 26
27 27
28 28
29 29
30 30
31 31
32 32
Total 100% 100.0% 17.8 32.4 18.8 18.6 8.8 2.6 0.7 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 50.2 49.8




Points



At large teams are selected based on the number of wins (points) against teams already in the championships. As a result, advancement is predicated on accumulating enough points before the last at-large selection. Accordingly, the points below are the total number of wins against automatic qualifiers or teams selected in the at-large process before the last selection. Minimum, maximum, and average points are number seen in 5,000 simulations of the NCAA Tournament.



Received By BeatingChance ReceivedAverage If >0Average
Stanford 100.0% 1.0 1.0
Florida State 99.9% 1.0 1.0
Northern Arizona 99.8% 1.0 1.0
Michigan 99.3% 1.0 1.0
BYU 99.0% 2.0 2.0
Arkansas 98.4% 1.0 1.0
Providence 98.3% 1.0 1.0
UCLA 97.9% 1.0 1.0
Washington 96.4% 1.0 1.0
New Mexico 96.3% 1.0 1.0
Michigan State 90.5% 1.0 0.9
Indiana 83.4% 1.0 0.8
North Carolina 70.4% 1.0 0.7
Oklahoma 58.7% 1.0 0.6
Iowa State 42.0% 1.0 0.4
Minnesota 35.0% 1.0 0.4
Eastern Kentucky 22.6% 1.0 0.2
Princeton 14.7% 1.0 0.1
Lamar 13.6% 1.0 0.1
Illinois 7.6% 1.0 0.1
Texas A&M 0.2% 1.0 0.0
Columbia 0.1% 1.0 0.0
Dartmouth 0.0% 1.0 0.0
Total 15.2
Minimum 11.0
Maximum 20.0