Villanova
Men - Women
2013 - 2014 - 2015
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RankNameGradeRating
8  Patrick Tiernan SO 31:04
78  Sam McEntee SR 31:44
84  Jordan Williamsz JR 31:46
88  Robert Denault JR 31:48
147  Brian Basili SR 31:58
192  Harry Warnick SO 32:08
327  Kevin Corbusier SO 32:31
707  Robert Hurlbut JR 33:11
1,222  Christopher O'Sullivan SR 33:58
1,337  Thomas Trainer JR 34:05
1,521  Drake Johnston FR 34:20
1,960  Christopher FitzSimons SR 34:57
2,029  Dusty Solis SR 35:04
National Rank #8 of 311
Mid-Atlantic Region Rank #1 of 33
Chance of Advancing to Nationals 97.0%
Most Likely Finish 7th at Nationals


National Champion 0.2%
Top 5 at Nationals 17.4%
Top 10 at Nationals 57.9%
Top 20 at Nationals 94.1%


Regional Champion 74.8%
Top 5 in Regional 100.0%
Top 10 in Regional 100.0%
Top 20 in Regional 100.0%


Race Performance Ratings


Times listed are adjusted ratings based on performance compared to other runners in race.


RaceDateTeam Rating Patrick Tiernan Sam McEntee Jordan Williamsz Robert Denault Brian Basili Harry Warnick Kevin Corbusier Robert Hurlbut Christopher O'Sullivan Thomas Trainer Drake Johnston
Washington Invitational 10/04 654 30:40 32:00 32:11 32:40 33:15 33:59 34:12
Lehigh Paul Short Run (Gold) 10/04 760 31:44 31:44 31:53 34:20
Princeton Invitational 10/18 738 32:18 32:19 32:18 32:18 32:18 32:47 33:07 33:41 34:06
Big East Championships 10/31 282 31:19 31:27 31:28 31:31 31:43 32:00 32:28 33:13 34:14 33:56
Mid-Atlantic Region Championships 11/14 543 31:51 31:55 32:02 31:53 32:04 32:05 32:23
NCAA Championship 11/22 271 31:00 31:30 31:30 31:29 31:47 32:06 32:19





NCAA Tournament Simulation


Based on results of 5,000 simulations of the NCAA Tournament. Numbers in tables represent percentage of times each outcome occured during simulation.



Team Results

Advances to RoundAve FinishAve Score Finishing Place
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31
NCAA Championship 97.0% 9.9 321 0.2 1.4 3.5 5.7 6.6 7.6 8.9 8.4 8.0 7.4 7.0 6.5 5.3 4.1 3.3 2.8 2.6 2.0 1.5 1.1 0.9 0.7 0.4 0.3 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0
Region Championship 100% 1.3 40 74.8 21.7 3.0 0.4 0.0 0.0



Individual Results

NCAA ChampionshipAdvances to RoundAve Finish Finishing Place
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25
Patrick Tiernan 100% 12.7 3.9 5.7 5.7 4.5 5.1 4.2 3.9 3.5 3.6 2.8 2.7 2.5 2.7 2.6 2.3 2.0 2.0 1.7 1.9 1.5 1.3 1.5 1.5 1.0 1.4
Sam McEntee 97.8% 79.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.3 0.1 0.3 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.2
Jordan Williamsz 97.6% 84.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.2
Robert Denault 97.5% 88.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.2
Brian Basili 97.1% 116.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Harry Warnick 97.0% 144.0
Kevin Corbusier 97.0% 195.5


RegionalAve Finish Finishing Place
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25
Patrick Tiernan 1.0 74.5 13.2 4.0 2.2 1.3 1.2 0.7 0.6 0.3 0.4 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.1 0.2 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Sam McEntee 6.1 0.9 8.8 12.6 10.9 8.8 7.6 6.2 6.0 4.2 4.0 3.1 3.0 2.2 2.1 2.0 2.0 1.8 1.4 1.5 1.2 1.0 1.2 0.8 0.7 0.7
Jordan Williamsz 6.6 1.0 7.1 10.9 10.8 9.0 7.5 6.2 5.1 4.7 3.8 3.4 3.2 2.8 2.8 2.1 1.8 2.0 1.8 1.6 1.4 1.1 1.0 0.7 0.7 0.6
Robert Denault 7.3 0.3 5.2 9.6 10.4 9.4 7.3 6.0 5.4 5.0 4.6 3.6 3.9 2.8 2.8 2.6 2.4 2.0 1.7 1.6 1.4 1.5 1.0 0.9 0.9 0.8
Brian Basili 11.8 0.4 2.3 4.2 5.5 6.3 6.2 5.9 5.6 4.9 4.8 5.0 4.1 3.9 4.1 3.0 3.2 2.8 2.6 2.4 2.0 1.6 1.8 1.6 1.2
Harry Warnick 16.9 0.1 0.5 1.4 2.0 2.8 3.8 3.9 4.1 4.6 4.9 4.7 4.7 4.9 4.5 3.4 3.5 3.2 3.0 3.4 2.5 2.4 2.9 2.1
Kevin Corbusier 30.8 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.5 0.6 0.9 1.1 1.5 1.9 1.9 2.4 2.8 3.4 3.0 3.1 3.2 3.6




NCAA Championship Selection Detail

Total
Region Finish Chance of Finishing Chance of Advancing Auto At Large Selection No Adv Auto At Large Region Finish
1 2 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13
1 74.8% 100.0% 74.8 74.8 1
2 21.7% 100.0% 21.7 21.7 2
3 3.0% 13.2% 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 2.6 0.4 3
4 0.4% 5.3% 0.0 0.4 0.0 4
5 0.0% 0.0 5
6 0.0% 0.0 6
7 7
8 8
9 9
10 10
11 11
12 12
13 13
14 14
15 15
16 16
17 17
18 18
19 19
20 20
21 21
22 22
23 23
24 24
25 25
26 26
27 27
28 28
29 29
30 30
31 31
32 32
33 33
Total 100% 97.0% 74.8 21.7 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 3.0 96.6 0.4




Points



At large teams are selected based on the number of wins (points) against teams already in the championships. As a result, advancement is predicated on accumulating enough points before the last at-large selection. Accordingly, the points below are the total number of wins against automatic qualifiers or teams selected in the at-large process before the last selection. Minimum, maximum, and average points are number seen in 5,000 simulations of the NCAA Tournament.



Received By BeatingChance ReceivedAverage If >0Average
Providence 98.3% 1.0 1.0
Georgetown 87.8% 1.0 0.9
Indiana 83.4% 1.0 0.8
Virginia Tech 1.2% 1.0 0.0
Penn 0.2% 1.0 0.0
Total 2.7
Minimum 0.0
Maximum 4.0