Virginia
Men - Women
2013 - 2014 - 2015
Switch to All-time Team Page
RankNameGradeRating
85  Kyle King JR 31:47
96  Zach Herriott SO 31:50
97  Connor Rog SO 31:50
223  Adam Visokay SO 32:14
229  Thomas Madden SO 32:16
253  Weaverling Chase FR 32:20
307  Mike Marsella SO 32:29
390  Trevor Hopper FR 32:40
506  Henry Wynne FR 32:52
987  Evan Chiplock JR 33:37
1,263  Jack St. Marie SO 34:00
1,277  Ed Schrom SO 34:01
National Rank #20 of 311
Southeast Region Rank #2 of 47
Chance of Advancing to Nationals 93.0%
Most Likely Finish 18th at Nationals


National Champion 0.0%
Top 5 at Nationals 0.8%
Top 10 at Nationals 10.1%
Top 20 at Nationals 60.1%


Regional Champion 40.7%
Top 5 in Regional 98.9%
Top 10 in Regional 100.0%
Top 20 in Regional 100.0%


Race Performance Ratings


Times listed are adjusted ratings based on performance compared to other runners in race.


RaceDateTeam Rating Kyle King Zach Herriott Connor Rog Adam Visokay Thomas Madden Weaverling Chase Mike Marsella Trevor Hopper Henry Wynne Evan Chiplock Jack St. Marie
Panorama Farms Invitational 09/26 419 31:21 31:41 31:43 32:35 31:47 32:26 32:11 32:46 33:48 33:51
Washington Invitational 10/04 574 31:53 32:07 31:56 32:10 31:58 32:24 33:13
ACC Championships 10/31 654 32:23 31:52 31:37 32:21 32:50 32:31 32:55 32:41 33:55 34:11
Southeast Region Championships 11/14 486 31:35 31:44 32:14 31:35 32:36 32:12 33:12
NCAA Championship 11/22 579 31:47 31:45 31:46 33:35 32:24 32:29 33:38





NCAA Tournament Simulation


Based on results of 5,000 simulations of the NCAA Tournament. Numbers in tables represent percentage of times each outcome occured during simulation.



Team Results

Advances to RoundAve FinishAve Score Finishing Place
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31
NCAA Championship 93.0% 18.1 475 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.5 0.9 1.5 2.1 2.0 2.8 3.5 4.3 4.4 5.1 5.2 5.6 5.7 6.2 5.1 4.9 5.0 4.3 3.9 3.8 3.6 3.1 3.0 2.3 1.9 1.5 0.5
Region Championship 100% 2.2 79 40.7 26.2 17.5 9.6 5.0 1.1



Individual Results

NCAA ChampionshipAdvances to RoundAve Finish Finishing Place
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25
Kyle King 94.7% 84.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.1 0.2 0.4
Zach Herriott 93.4% 92.4 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.2
Connor Rog 93.4% 95.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1
Adam Visokay 93.0% 156.0
Thomas Madden 93.0% 161.5
Weaverling Chase 93.0% 171.1
Mike Marsella 93.0% 190.5


RegionalAve Finish Finishing Place
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25
Kyle King 8.5 1.0 3.5 6.0 7.3 8.5 7.2 7.4 6.7 5.3 4.7 4.6 4.5 3.2 3.3 2.7 2.4 2.6 2.1 1.8 1.4 1.4 1.1 0.9 1.2 0.9
Zach Herriott 10.0 0.3 1.6 4.0 5.2 6.9 7.8 7.0 6.4 5.9 4.9 4.8 4.4 3.3 3.7 3.6 3.2 2.4 2.2 2.1 2.0 1.9 1.4 1.4 1.1 1.4
Connor Rog 10.1 0.3 1.6 3.3 5.7 7.1 6.7 7.1 6.9 5.6 5.1 5.1 4.4 3.8 4.0 3.2 2.8 2.5 2.4 2.1 2.0 1.5 1.7 1.2 1.4 1.2
Adam Visokay 22.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.6 0.9 1.5 2.0 2.3 3.2 3.4 3.7 4.1 4.0 4.3 4.5 3.9 3.7 4.1 3.3 2.9 3.0 3.2
Thomas Madden 23.8 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.5 0.9 1.4 2.4 2.7 2.8 3.2 3.3 3.9 3.8 3.7 4.6 3.8 3.4 3.6 3.4 2.7 2.9
Weaverling Chase 25.6 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.5 0.6 0.8 1.3 1.6 2.1 2.6 2.8 2.7 3.9 3.5 4.1 3.5 3.2 3.6 3.7 3.8 3.4
Mike Marsella 32.6 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.5 0.7 0.9 1.2 1.3 2.0 2.3 2.3 2.6 3.0 3.4 3.1 3.0




NCAA Championship Selection Detail

Total
Region Finish Chance of Finishing Chance of Advancing Auto At Large Selection No Adv Auto At Large Region Finish
1 2 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13
1 40.7% 100.0% 40.7 40.7 1
2 26.2% 100.0% 26.2 26.2 2
3 17.5% 97.3% 0.1 0.2 0.2 1.9 2.6 2.3 2.1 2.0 1.7 1.5 1.2 0.9 0.5 0.5 17.0 3
4 9.6% 87.4% 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.8 1.0 0.8 1.0 0.8 1.0 0.6 0.8 1.2 1.2 8.4 4
5 5.0% 13.3% 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 4.3 0.7 5
6 1.1% 1.9% 0.0 1.0 0.0 6
7 7
8 8
9 9
10 10
11 11
12 12
13 13
14 14
15 15
16 16
17 17
18 18
19 19
20 20
21 21
22 22
23 23
24 24
25 25
26 26
27 27
28 28
29 29
30 30
31 31
32 32
33 33
34 34
35 35
36 36
37 37
38 38
39 39
40 40
41 41
42 42
43 43
44 44
45 45
46 46
47 47
Total 100% 93.0% 40.7 26.2 0.1 0.2 0.2 2.0 3.4 3.4 2.9 3.0 2.5 2.6 2.0 1.9 2.0 7.0 66.9 26.1




Points



At large teams are selected based on the number of wins (points) against teams already in the championships. As a result, advancement is predicated on accumulating enough points before the last at-large selection. Accordingly, the points below are the total number of wins against automatic qualifiers or teams selected in the at-large process before the last selection. Minimum, maximum, and average points are number seen in 5,000 simulations of the NCAA Tournament.



Received By BeatingChance ReceivedAverage If >0Average
Florida State 99.9% 1.0 1.0
Iona 99.8% 1.0 1.0
Villanova 96.6% 1.0 1.0
Washington 96.4% 1.0 1.0
Indiana 83.4% 1.0 0.8
Furman 65.6% 1.0 0.7
Oklahoma 58.7% 1.0 0.6
Auburn 26.2% 1.0 0.3
Virginia Tech 1.2% 1.0 0.0
Georgia Tech 0.1% 1.0 0.0
Total 6.3
Minimum 3.0
Maximum 8.0