Washington
Men - Women
2013 - 2014 - 2015
Switch to All-time Team Page
RankNameGradeRating
24  Aaron Nelson SR 31:17
55  Tyler King JR 31:36
105  Izaic Yorks JR 31:51
207  Colby Gilbert FR 32:11
226  Meron Simon JR 32:16
440  Fred Huxham FR 32:46
452  AJ Yarnall FR 32:47
662  Johnathan Stevens FR 33:07
704  Jacob Smith JR 33:11
740  Sumner Goodwin SO 33:14
1,225  Blake Nelson SO 33:58
1,981  Timothy Cummings JR 34:59
2,133  Nick Harris SO 35:13
2,153  Keith Williams FR 35:16
National Rank #15 of 311
West Region Rank #5 of 32
Chance of Advancing to Nationals 96.5%
Most Likely Finish 12th at Nationals


National Champion 0.0%
Top 5 at Nationals 1.8%
Top 10 at Nationals 19.4%
Top 20 at Nationals 77.7%


Regional Champion 0.2%
Top 5 in Regional 88.1%
Top 10 in Regional 100.0%
Top 20 in Regional 100.0%


Race Performance Ratings


Times listed are adjusted ratings based on performance compared to other runners in race.


RaceDateTeam Rating Aaron Nelson Tyler King Izaic Yorks Colby Gilbert Meron Simon Fred Huxham AJ Yarnall Johnathan Stevens Jacob Smith Sumner Goodwin Blake Nelson
Washington Invitational 10/04 656 31:23 32:26 31:41 32:47 32:40 32:45 34:24 33:04 33:07 33:40
Wisconsin adidas Invitational 10/17 409 31:06 31:50 31:46 31:45 32:34 32:06 32:59
Wisconsin adidas Invitational - B 10/17 33:24 34:15
Pac-12 Championships 10/31 357 31:24 31:27 31:51 31:41 31:47 32:43 32:40 32:23 33:36 33:10
West Region Championships 11/14 520 31:33 32:01 31:50 32:12 32:01 32:29 33:00
NCAA Championship 11/22 565 31:01 31:16 32:22 32:52 32:18 33:12 35:00





NCAA Tournament Simulation


Based on results of 5,000 simulations of the NCAA Tournament. Numbers in tables represent percentage of times each outcome occured during simulation.



Team Results

Advances to RoundAve FinishAve Score Finishing Place
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31
NCAA Championship 96.5% 15.5 427 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.6 0.8 2.0 2.2 3.6 4.4 5.5 5.6 6.6 6.0 6.6 6.3 6.1 5.7 5.4 5.4 4.4 3.3 3.5 2.6 2.5 2.1 1.9 1.0 0.9 0.4 0.3 0.2
Region Championship 100% 4.7 145 0.2 1.2 6.0 34.3 46.4 8.6 2.3 0.6 0.3 0.1 0.0



Individual Results

NCAA ChampionshipAdvances to RoundAve Finish Finishing Place
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25
Aaron Nelson 98.8% 26.7 0.2 0.9 1.2 1.5 1.5 1.8 1.9 2.1 2.4 2.1 2.5 2.2 2.6 2.3 2.2 1.9 2.3 2.0 1.7 2.1 1.9 2.2 1.6 1.7 1.7
Tyler King 97.5% 59.6 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.5 0.7 0.5 0.8 0.7 1.0 0.9 1.0 0.9 1.1
Izaic Yorks 96.5% 96.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1
Colby Gilbert 96.5% 147.9
Meron Simon 96.5% 162.3
Fred Huxham 96.5% 217.6
AJ Yarnall 96.5% 219.2


RegionalAve Finish Finishing Place
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25
Aaron Nelson 7.1 2.7 5.3 8.7 9.3 8.3 7.9 6.8 6.1 5.2 4.6 3.9 3.5 2.9 2.6 2.4 1.8 1.5 1.3 1.4 1.4 1.2 1.0 1.1 1.1 0.7
Tyler King 16.1 0.0 0.2 0.6 1.2 2.1 3.1 3.8 4.1 4.4 4.4 4.6 4.5 4.4 4.4 3.9 3.8 3.7 3.3 3.2 3.0 2.7 2.2 2.8 2.1 2.1
Izaic Yorks 26.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.5 0.7 1.2 1.2 1.9 2.0 2.4 2.5 3.2 3.2 3.1 3.2 2.7 3.1 3.4 3.0 3.2 3.2 3.3
Colby Gilbert 40.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.6 0.7 0.7 0.9 1.2 1.6 1.7 1.4
Meron Simon 43.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.9 0.9
Fred Huxham 68.6
AJ Yarnall 69.7




NCAA Championship Selection Detail

Total
Region Finish Chance of Finishing Chance of Advancing Auto At Large Selection No Adv Auto At Large Region Finish
1 2 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13
1 0.2% 100.0% 0.2 0.2 1
2 1.2% 100.0% 1.2 1.2 2
3 6.0% 100.0% 2.0 2.7 1.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 6.0 3
4 34.3% 100.0% 12.2 12.1 5.5 2.1 0.9 0.6 0.3 0.2 0.3 0.1 0.1 0.0 34.3 4
5 46.4% 99.8% 18.9 15.4 6.9 2.1 1.3 0.7 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.1 46.3 5
6 8.6% 98.6% 3.5 2.9 1.2 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.1 8.5 6
7 2.3% 2.3 7
8 0.6% 0.6 8
9 0.3% 0.3 9
10 0.1% 0.1 10
11 11
12 0.0% 0.0 12
13 13
14 14
15 15
16 16
17 17
18 18
19 19
20 20
21 21
22 22
23 23
24 24
25 25
26 26
27 27
28 28
29 29
30 30
31 31
32 32
Total 100% 96.5% 0.2 1.2 2.0 14.9 32.0 24.6 12.0 4.2 2.2 1.3 0.7 0.6 0.3 0.2 0.1 3.5 1.4 95.1




Points



At large teams are selected based on the number of wins (points) against teams already in the championships. As a result, advancement is predicated on accumulating enough points before the last at-large selection. Accordingly, the points below are the total number of wins against automatic qualifiers or teams selected in the at-large process before the last selection. Minimum, maximum, and average points are number seen in 5,000 simulations of the NCAA Tournament.



Received By BeatingChance ReceivedAverage If >0Average
Florida State 99.9% 1.0 1.0
Michigan 99.3% 1.0 1.0
BYU 99.0% 1.0 1.0
Arkansas 98.4% 1.0 1.0
Providence 98.3% 1.0 1.0
UCLA 97.9% 1.0 1.0
Villanova 96.6% 1.0 1.0
New Mexico 96.3% 1.0 1.0
Michigan State 90.5% 1.0 0.9
Indiana 83.4% 2.0 1.7
North Carolina 70.4% 1.0 0.7
Oklahoma 58.7% 1.0 0.6
Iowa State 42.0% 1.0 0.4
Minnesota 35.0% 1.0 0.4
Eastern Kentucky 22.6% 1.0 0.2
Princeton 14.7% 1.0 0.1
Lamar 13.6% 1.0 0.1
Illinois 7.6% 1.0 0.1
Texas A&M 0.2% 1.0 0.0
Columbia 0.1% 1.0 0.0
Dartmouth 0.0% 1.0 0.0
Total 13.1
Minimum 8.0
Maximum 18.0